Molde v Fredrikstad — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · NOR-Eliteserien · 2627

NOR-Eliteserien results-only Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:03

Molde

14:15

Fredrikstad

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,196h before kick-off

Molde win

51.4%

model 51.2%

Draw

22.2%

model 23.7%

Fredrikstad win

26.5%

model 25.1%

512226

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,060 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.8%
2-1 9.6%
2-0 7.6%
1-0 7.4%
1-2 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	61.2%	Under 2.5	38.8%
BTTS yes	61.7%	BTTS no	38.3%
Molde 1+	84.9%	Molde 2+	56.3%
Fredrikstad 1+	72.0%	Fredrikstad 2+	36.3%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.27. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Molde carry the stronger rating, 1557 Elo against 1529.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Molde have an estimated 51.4% win probability, against 26.5% for Fredrikstad and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.89 for Molde and 1.27 for Fredrikstad.

Why Molde

Molde carry the stronger rating, 1557 Elo against 1529. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 20% in this competition.

Why Fredrikstad can win

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Molde, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Fredrikstad, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Molde: 61% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Fredrikstad: 45% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Molde's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Molde are the model's most likely outcome at 51.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	482428	1.79–1.31	1-1 11%	60%	61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde to win	48.1%	47.5%	49.0%	0.97×	2.11
Fredrikstad to win	27.5%	27.9%	31.3%	0.89×	3.59
Draw	24.4%	24.5%	19.9%	1.23×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde & both teams score	26.2%	25.2%	25.1%	1.00×	3.97
Molde & not both score	21.9%	21.9%	24.1%	0.91×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	17.9%	15.0%	1.19×	5.58
Fredrikstad & both teams score	15.9%	17.9%	16.8%	1.06×	5.58
Fredrikstad & not both score	11.6%	13.3%	14.8%	0.90×	7.55
Draw & not both score	5.2%	8.4%	5.2%	1.62×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde & over 1.5	40.6%	40.3%	41.2%	0.98×	2.48
Molde & over 2.5	33.4%	30.9%	34.7%	0.89×	3.24
Molde & under 3.5	28.4%	26.0%	28.0%	0.93×	3.84
Fredrikstad & over 1.5	22.2%	21.7%	26.4%	0.82×	4.62
Molde & over 3.5	19.6%	18.0%	21.2%	0.85×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	15.0%	1.20×	5.56
Fredrikstad & over 2.5	18.4%	18.0%	21.5%	0.84×	5.56
Fredrikstad & under 3.5	17.8%	18.0%	19.4%	0.93×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.4%	18.0%	14.5%	1.24×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.4%	18.0%	14.5%	1.24×	5.56
Molde & under 2.5	14.7%	12.9%	14.5%	0.89×	7.77
Fredrikstad & under 2.5	9.2%	7.9%	10.1%	0.78×	12.69
Fredrikstad & over 3.5	9.7%	7.9%	12.2%	0.65×	12.69
Molde & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	8.0%	0.98×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	8.1%	7.9%	5.7%	1.38×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	8.1%	7.9%	5.7%	1.38×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	5.2%	7.9%	5.2%	1.52×	12.70
Fredrikstad & under 1.5	5.3%	7.9%	5.2%	1.52×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde (1UP)	64.8%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Fredrikstad (1UP)	47.4%	43.2%	—	—	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde (2UP)	48.1%	49.8%	—	—	2.01
Fredrikstad (2UP)	27.5%	24.9%	—	—	4.02

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde to win 2nd half	39.9%	36.2%	—	—	2.77
2nd half drawn	32.9%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Fredrikstad to win 2nd half	27.2%	26.3%	—	—	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad (+2.5)	88.1%	88.5%	85.5%	1.04×	1.13
Fredrikstad (+1.5)	73.3%	73.7%	72.0%	1.02×	1.36
Molde (+0.5)	72.5%	73.7%	68.7%	1.07×	1.36
Fredrikstad (+0.5)	51.9%	52.3%	51.0%	1.03×	1.91
Molde (-0.5)	48.1%	47.7%	49.0%	0.97×	2.10
Fredrikstad (-0.5)	27.5%	26.3%	31.3%	0.84×	3.80
Molde (-1.5)	26.7%	26.3%	28.0%	0.94×	3.80
Molde (-2.5)	11.9%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad to concede	83.3%	81.3%	80.3%	1.01×	1.23
Fredrikstad clean sheet	16.7%	18.7%	19.7%	0.95×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad clean sheet in 1st half	46.4%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Fredrikstad to concede in 1st half	53.6%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad under 6.5 corners	90.1%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Fredrikstad under 5.5 corners	82.6%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Fredrikstad under 4.5 corners	71.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Fredrikstad over 2.5 corners	63.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Fredrikstad under 3.5 corners	55.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Fredrikstad over 3.5 corners	44.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Fredrikstad under 2.5 corners	36.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Fredrikstad over 4.5 corners	28.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Fredrikstad over 5.5 corners	17.4%	18.5%	—	—	5.39
Fredrikstad over 6.5 corners	9.9%	10.0%	—	—	10.03

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad under 3.5 goals	95.6%	97.5%	93.5%	1.04×	1.03
Fredrikstad under 2.5 goals	85.5%	87.9%	82.6%	1.06×	1.14
Fredrikstad over 0.5 goals	73.0%	72.0%	71.0%	1.01×	1.39
Fredrikstad under 1.5 goals	62.4%	63.0%	63.0%	1.00×	1.59
Fredrikstad over 1.5 goals	37.6%	37.0%	37.0%	1.00×	2.70
Fredrikstad under 0.5 goals	27.0%	28.0%	29.0%	0.97×	3.57
Fredrikstad over 2.5 goals	14.5%	12.1%	17.4%	0.70×	8.24
Fredrikstad over 3.5 goals	4.4%	2.5%	6.5%	0.38×	40.64

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad under 1.5 in 1st half	90.3%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Fredrikstad under 0.5 in 1st half	59.2%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Fredrikstad over 0.5 in 1st half	40.8%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Fredrikstad over 1.5 in 1st half	9.7%	5.9%	—	—	16.93

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde (away no bet)	66.3%	66.3%	71.1%	0.93×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	33.7%	33.7%	28.9%	1.16×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad even goals	53.6%	52.8%	52.9%	1.00×	1.89
Fredrikstad odd goals	46.4%	47.2%	47.2%	1.00×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.1%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.9%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.3%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.7%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.5%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Molde to score 2+ in a row	43.7%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
Fredrikstad to score 2+ in a row	27.3%	25.0%	—	—	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.5%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Molde to score 3+ in a row	17.3%	16.3%	—	—	6.12
Fredrikstad to score 3+ in a row	7.7%	5.7%	—	—	17.67

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde corners (+3.5)	95.6%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Molde corners (+2.5)	92.5%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Molde corners (+1.5)	87.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Molde corners (-1.5)	63.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Fredrikstad corners (+3.5)	56.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Molde corners (-2.5)	53.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Fredrikstad corners (+2.5)	46.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Molde corners (-3.5)	43.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Fredrikstad corners (+1.5)	36.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Fredrikstad corners (-1.5)	12.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.46
Fredrikstad corners (-2.5)	7.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Fredrikstad corners (-3.5)	4.4%	4.3%	—	—	23.53

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.2%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
12+ corners	33.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	74.4%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	71.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	61.9%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	57.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	51.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	42.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	38.2%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	33.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 7.5 corners	28.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	25.6%	27.4%	—	—	3.66

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.2%	11.5%	9.6%	1.19×	8.73
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	9.8%	0.75×	13.48
1-0	7.5%	7.4%	8.0%	0.92×	13.48
1-2	6.9%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.48
2-0	7.2%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.48
0-0	5.2%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.48
0-1	5.3%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.48
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	4.4%	1.68×	13.48
3-1	5.6%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.48
0-2	3.9%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.47
0-3	1.7%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.48
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.30×	58.49
1-3	3.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.47
1-4	1.0%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.48
2-3	2.7%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.47
2-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.3%	1.32×	58.48
3-0	4.3%	1.7%	4.1%	0.41×	58.46
3-2	3.7%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.47
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.65×	58.48
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.30×	58.49
4-0	1.9%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.48
4-1	2.5%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.48
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.3%	1.32×	58.48
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.30×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.30×	58.49
Any other score	4.6%	1.7%	7.3%	0.24×	58.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde leading at HT (DNB)	62.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Fredrikstad leading at HT (DNB)	37.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde or Fredrikstad (12)	75.6%	75.5%	80.1%	0.94×	1.32
Molde or draw (1X)	72.5%	72.1%	68.7%	1.05×	1.39
Fredrikstad or draw (X2)	51.9%	52.5%	51.0%	1.03×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde or draw at HT	77.5%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Fredrikstad or draw at HT	62.4%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Molde or Fredrikstad at HT	60.1%	62.0%	—	—	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde or draw (1UP)	72.5%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
Fredrikstad or draw (1UP)	51.9%	59.2%	—	—	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde or draw in 2nd half	72.8%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Molde or Fredrikstad in 2nd half	67.1%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Fredrikstad or draw in 2nd half	60.1%	63.8%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.0%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	41.0%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde (DNB)	63.6%	62.9%	61.0%	1.03×	1.59
Fredrikstad (DNB)	36.4%	37.2%	39.0%	0.95×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde to score first	54.7%	54.0%	—	—	1.85
Fredrikstad to score first	40.1%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	5.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.44

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.4%	56.5%	56.5%	1.00×	1.77
Not both teams to score	38.6%	43.5%	43.5%	1.00×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.2%	47.0%	47.2%	1.00×	2.13
Not both score & under 2.5	29.0%	33.6%	29.3%	1.15×	2.98
Both score & under 2.5	11.2%	12.3%	9.6%	1.29×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	9.6%	8.4%	14.5%	0.58×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.9%	80.0%	83.4%	0.96×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.1%	20.0%	16.6%	1.21×	5.00

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.0%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	35.0%	32.5%	—	—	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.7%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	27.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Both score 1st half only	14.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.27
Both score in both halves	7.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.72

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.0%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.0%	18.5%	—	—	5.41

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.9%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
A half without a goal	39.1%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.7%	42.1%	43.8%	0.96×	2.37
4-6 goals	33.6%	30.8%	35.5%	0.87×	3.25
0-1 goals	17.9%	20.2%	17.9%	1.13×	4.96
7+ goals	3.8%	1.8%	3.4%	0.55×	54.40

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad to score exactly 1	35.4%	36.0%	34.2%	1.05×	2.78
Fredrikstad to score exactly 0	27.0%	27.4%	29.0%	0.94×	3.65
Fredrikstad to score exactly 2	23.1%	22.4%	19.9%	1.12×	4.46
Fredrikstad to score 3+	14.5%	12.8%	17.4%	0.74×	7.79

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde to score exactly 1	29.9%	26.5%	28.2%	0.94×	3.77
Molde to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.5%	25.9%	1.02×	3.77
Molde to score 3+	26.6%	26.5%	26.7%	0.99×	3.77
Molde to score exactly 0	16.7%	18.9%	19.7%	0.96×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.9%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Molde leading at HT	37.6%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Fredrikstad leading at HT	22.5%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde -1: 2	51.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Molde -1: 1	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Molde -1: X	21.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad (0:1)	51.9%	51.1%	51.0%	1.00×	1.96
Molde (0:1)	26.7%	27.0%	28.0%	0.96×	3.71
Draw (0:1)	21.4%	24.3%	21.2%	1.14×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad (0:2)	73.3%	75.7%	72.0%	1.05×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	14.8%	11.0%	13.7%	0.80×	9.11
Molde (0:2)	11.9%	11.0%	14.5%	0.76×	9.12

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad (0:3)	88.1%	90.8%	85.5%	1.06×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.5%	5.8%	7.0%	0.83×	17.16
Molde (0:3)	4.4%	2.4%	7.8%	0.31×	42.07

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad (0:4)	95.6%	98.1%	92.2%	1.06×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.0%	1.2%	4.7%	0.26×	83.33
Molde (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	3.4%	0.36×	83.52

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde (1:0)	72.5%	72.5%	68.7%	1.06×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	15.5%	17.0%	14.8%	1.15×	5.88
Fredrikstad (1:0)	12.0%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.81

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde (2:0)	88.0%	88.4%	83.2%	1.06×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.9%	6.5%	9.1%	0.71×	15.48
Fredrikstad (2:0)	4.1%	2.3%	8.0%	0.28×	44.11

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.9%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	24.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde to concede	73.0%	73.1%	71.0%	1.03×	1.37
Molde clean sheet	27.0%	26.9%	29.0%	0.93×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde clean sheet in 1st half	59.2%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Molde to concede in 1st half	40.8%	37.5%	—	—	2.67

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde over 2.5 corners	90.3%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Molde over 3.5 corners	81.3%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Molde over 4.5 corners	70.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Molde over 5.5 corners	57.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Molde under 6.5 corners	54.3%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Molde over 6.5 corners	45.7%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Molde under 5.5 corners	42.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Molde under 4.5 corners	30.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Molde under 3.5 corners	18.7%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Molde under 2.5 corners	9.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde under 3.5 goals	89.3%	87.3%	87.6%	1.00×	1.15
Molde over 0.5 goals	83.3%	82.1%	80.3%	1.02×	1.22
Molde under 2.5 goals	73.4%	74.2%	73.3%	1.01×	1.35
Molde over 1.5 goals	53.3%	53.3%	52.3%	1.02×	1.88
Molde under 1.5 goals	46.7%	46.7%	47.7%	0.98×	2.14
Molde over 2.5 goals	26.6%	25.8%	26.7%	0.97×	3.87
Molde under 0.5 goals	16.7%	17.9%	19.7%	0.91×	5.59
Molde over 3.5 goals	10.7%	12.7%	12.4%	1.02×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde under 1.5 in 1st half	82.0%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Molde under 0.5 in 1st half	46.4%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Molde over 0.5 in 1st half	53.6%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Molde over 1.5 in 1st half	18.0%	15.8%	—	—	6.34

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad (home no bet)	53.0%	51.6%	61.1%	0.84×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	47.0%	48.4%	38.9%	1.24×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde even goals	51.4%	50.6%	53.9%	0.94×	1.98
Molde odd goals	48.6%	49.4%	46.1%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.6%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
HT 1-0	21.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 0-1	14.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
HT 1-1	11.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 2-0	8.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
Any other HT score	5.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.07
HT 2-1	4.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.30
HT 0-2	3.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.33
HT 1-2	2.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.40
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.53

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde at HT / Molde at FT	29.6%	26.9%	—	—	3.71
Draw at HT / Molde at FT	15.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Fredrikstad at HT / Fredrikstad at FT	14.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Fredrikstad at FT	10.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Molde at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
Fredrikstad at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Fredrikstad at HT / Molde at FT	2.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Molde at HT / Fredrikstad at FT	2.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.87

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde to score last	54.8%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Fredrikstad to score last	40.1%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
No goal scored	5.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.44

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.8%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Molde to lead by 1 at any time	64.8%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.3%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Fredrikstad to lead by 1 at any time	47.4%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Molde to lead by 2 at any time	34.3%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.6%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Fredrikstad to lead by 2 at any time	18.4%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Molde to lead by 3 at any time	14.8%	10.5%	—	—	9.50
Fredrikstad to lead by 3 at any time	5.8%	6.6%	—	—	15.14

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde most corners	73.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Fredrikstad most corners	18.5%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	8.2%	8.5%	—	—	11.81

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.5%	87.4%	87.0%	1.00×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.3%	78.6%	79.0%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.7%	72.4%	73.1%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.7%	72.4%	74.4%	0.97×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.0%	63.4%	60.4%	1.05×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.4%	59.2%	56.5%	1.05×	1.69
3-6 goals	55.9%	59.2%	58.3%	1.02×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.4%	53.2%	53.6%	0.99×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.7%	43.6%	43.8%	1.00×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.7%	39.2%	39.6%	0.99×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.1%	39.1%	33.7%	1.16×	2.56
4-6 goals	33.6%	35.4%	35.5%	1.00×	2.83
4-5 goals	28.0%	30.2%	30.8%	0.98×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.3%	18.6%	18.9%	0.98×	5.37
7+ goals	3.8%	2.6%	3.4%	0.76×	39.16

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde never behind	47.5%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Fredrikstad never behind	30.1%	35.5%	—	—	2.82

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.6%	50.8%	51.6%	0.99×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.4%	49.2%	48.4%	1.02×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	94.8%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	82.1%	82.4%	82.1%	1.00×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	79.9%	77.4%	78.0%	0.99×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	62.6%	61.8%	61.4%	1.01×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.8%	58.9%	61.4%	0.96×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	40.2%	41.1%	38.6%	1.07×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	37.4%	38.2%	38.6%	0.99×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	20.1%	22.6%	22.0%	1.03×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	17.9%	17.6%	17.9%	0.99×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	8.0%	0.96×	12.91
Under 0.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	5.2%	1.49×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.9%	97.2%	96.5%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.5%	86.8%	90.7%	0.96×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.0%	75.9%	77.5%	0.98×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	75.7%	75.9%	73.6%	1.03×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.8%	51.8%	50.0%	1.04×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.2%	48.2%	50.0%	0.96×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	24.3%	24.1%	26.4%	0.91×	4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.0%	24.1%	22.5%	1.07×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.5%	13.2%	9.3%	1.42×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.1%	2.8%	3.5%	0.78×	36.10

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.9%	88.9%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.4%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.9%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.1%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.6%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.1%	11.1%	—	—	9.03

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.3%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.0%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	54.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	27.0%	22.3%	—	—	4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad not to score in both halves	77.8%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Molde not to score in both halves	65.7%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
Molde to score in both halves	34.3%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
Fredrikstad to score in both halves	22.2%	21.7%	—	—	4.60

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.4%	60.2%	56.5%	1.07×	1.66
Only Molde scores	21.9%	22.3%	24.1%	0.93×	4.48
Only Fredrikstad scores	11.6%	10.9%	14.8%	0.74×	9.15
Neither team scores	5.2%	7.2%	5.2%	1.39×	13.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.3%	22.6%	21.0%	1.08×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.3%	17.4%	16.8%	1.04×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	12.8%	12.1%	13.0%	0.93×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	10.7%	12.1%	14.2%	0.85×	8.28
6 or more goals	9.4%	7.6%	8.0%	0.95×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	5.2%	7.6%	5.2%	1.47×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	54.0%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	29.3%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	16.7%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad not to win both halves	93.8%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Molde not to win both halves	84.9%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Molde to win both halves	15.1%	15.7%	—	—	6.39
Fredrikstad to win both halves	6.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.62

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Molde to win either half	62.4%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Fredrikstad to win neither half	56.5%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Fredrikstad to win either half	43.5%	40.6%	—	—	2.47
Molde to win neither half	37.6%	34.9%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fredrikstad not to win to nil	88.4%	88.2%	85.2%	1.04×	1.13
Molde not to win to nil	78.1%	78.1%	75.9%	1.03×	1.28
Molde to win to nil	21.9%	21.9%	24.1%	0.91×	4.56
Fredrikstad to win to nil	11.6%	11.8%	14.8%	0.80×	8.50

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.4%	24.2%	19.9%	1.21×	4.14
Molde by 1	21.4%	24.1%	21.2%	1.14×	4.14
Fredrikstad by 1	15.5%	16.9%	14.8%	1.15×	5.91
Molde by 2	14.8%	11.8%	13.7%	0.86×	8.47
Molde by 3+	11.9%	11.8%	14.5%	0.81×	8.48
Fredrikstad by 2	7.9%	7.3%	9.1%	0.80×	13.78
Fredrikstad by 3+	4.1%	2.7%	8.0%	0.34×	36.95