Monaco v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 12
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 9
xG per shot
0.28 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.69 – 0.77
Goals − xG
-0.81 – -1.56
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
54.2%
Draw
22.9%
Brest win
22.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Brest are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLLDDD last 10
scored 13
from 15.9 xG
conceded 23
from 18.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.75–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.01–1.14 | 2-1 10% | 61% | 59% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 2.81 xGBrest 1.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Brest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe |
| 11' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 18' |
 Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lamine Camara |
| 22' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daouda Guindo |
| 25' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aladji Bamba |
| 28' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 30' |
Brest |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.59 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Brendan Chardonnet |
| 34' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.56 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Brest |
Brendan Chardonnet | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 49' |
Brest |
Daouda Guindo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Simon Adingra |
| 52' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 62' |
Brest |
Brendan Chardonnet | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Coulibaly |
| 74' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 77' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mamadou Coulibaly |
| 79' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 80' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 81' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.56 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Remy Labeau Lascary |
| 84' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Joris Chotard |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamory Doumbia AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.06 | 0.67 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.59 | 0.06 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.67 |
| Daouda Guindo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Michel Diaz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Romain Del Castillo AMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.67 |
| Hugo Magnetti DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| Lucas Tousart Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pathé Mboup Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandr Golovin AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Lamine Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.59 | 2.12 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Wout Faes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.43 |
| Denis Zakaria DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.44 |
| Jordan Teze DMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.04 |
| Simon Adingra DML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Folarin Balogun FW | 72 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.44 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Maghnes Akliouche AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Aladji Bamba MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly Sub | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Anssumane Fati Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.54 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kassoum Ouattara Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |