Monaco v Lyon — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 May 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 9
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 4
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.43 – 0.01
Goals − xG
+0.51 – -0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
49.1%
Draw
22.1%
Lyon win
28.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.98–1.48 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 1.49 xGLyon 0.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Lyon attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Lyon |
Jordan Veretout | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Lyon |
Alexandre Lacazette | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 10' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Malick Fofana |
| 11' |
Lyon |
Alexandre Lacazette | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thiago Almada |
| 16' |
 Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 25' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 26' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 31' |
Lyon |
Malick Fofana | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thiago Almada |
| 32' |
Lyon |
Jordan Veretout | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Monaco |
Breel Embolo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 52' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 55' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexandre Lacazette |
| 61' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 66' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 67' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Lamine Camara |
| 71' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Monaco |
Wilfried Stephane Singo | 0.21 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 91' |
Monaco |
Caio Henrique | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Lyon |
Mathis Cherki | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago Almada |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maghnes Akliouche MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.42 |
| Wilfried Stephane Singo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Breel Embolo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.65 | 0.85 |
| Caio Henrique DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.64 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Philipp Köhn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takumi Minamino ML | 89 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Denis Zakaria MC | 89 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Lamine Camara MC | 81 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.49 |
| Mika Biereth FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Jordan Teze DR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Vanderson Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Seghir Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Soungoutou Magassa Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Krépin Diatta Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Tessmann MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Alexandre Lacazette FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.23 |
| Malick Fofana FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| Lucas Perri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Thiago Almada AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| Jordan Veretout MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Duje Caleta-Car Sub | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mathis Cherki Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Georges Mikautadze Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |