Monaco v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 19
On target
3 – 8
Shots in box
7 – 12
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 1.41
Goals − xG
+0.32 – -2.11
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
50.1%
Draw
22.2%
Marseille win
27.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLWLDLWWWL last 10
scored 14
from 22.5 xG
conceded 14
from 14.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.83–1.31 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.04–1.48 | 2-1 9% | 68% | 67% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 1.68 xGMarseille 3.11 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Marseille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
 Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Folarin Balogun |
| 10' |
Marseille |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 12' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thilo Kehrer |
| 27' |
Marseille |
Benjamin Pavard | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 29' |
Monaco |
Mamadou Coulibaly | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 31' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 32' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hamed Junior Traore |
| 35' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 47' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Igor Paixão |
| 48' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hamed Junior Traore |
| 56' |
Marseille |
Quinten Timber | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jordan Teze |
| 61' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Quinten Timber |
| 65' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang |
| 66' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 71' |
Marseille |
Quinten Timber | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 71' |
Marseille |
Quinten Timber | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 73' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 82' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 84' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.68 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Facundo Medina |
| 90' |
Marseille |
Facundo Medina | 0.34 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 90' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.85 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anssumane Fati |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.96 | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| Amine Gouiri FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.69 | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| Igor Paixão ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.02 | 1.02 |
| Facundo Medina DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.68 | 1.06 |
| Quinten Timber MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Benjamin Pavard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| Timothy Weah MR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| CJ Egan-Riley DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Hamed Junior Traore AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.05 | 0.56 |
| Ethan Nwaneri Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Leonardo Balerdi Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Himad Abdelli Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emerson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denis Zakaria DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamine Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Jordan Teze DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.95 |
| Wout Faes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Maghnes Akliouche AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Folarin Balogun FW | 84 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| Aleksandr Golovin AMC | 76 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi DML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Krépin Diatta Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aladji Bamba Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anssumane Fati Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |