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Monaco v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 15 February 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

7–1
5.15 – 1.37 xG
Shots
22 – 6
On target
11 – 2
Shots in box
17 – 6
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.86 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.85 – -0.37
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.42.94.35.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Matthis Abline 3' — goalMika Biereth 43' — goalTakumi Minamino 44' — goalBen Seghir 48' — goalMika Biereth 53' — goalMika Biereth 63' — goalGeorge Ilenikhena 80' — goalGeorge Ilenikhena 94' — goal
Monaco 5.15 xGNantes 1.37 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Matthis Abline 2' — Shot On Post (0.37 xG, Open Play)Moses Simon 2' — Blocked Shot (0.17 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 3' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Takumi Minamino 8' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Ben Seghir 13' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Maghnes Akliouche 17' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 22' — Saved Shot (0.55 xG, Open Play)Kelvin Adou 31' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Maghnes Akliouche 32' — Missed Shot (0.21 xG, Open Play)Lamine Camara 33' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Maghnes Akliouche 36' — Missed Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)Takumi Minamino 42' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mika Biereth 43' — Goal (0.76 xG, Open Play)Takumi Minamino 44' — Goal (0.38 xG, Open Play)Ben Seghir 48' — Goal (0.33 xG, Open Play)Mika Biereth 53' — Goal (0.12 xG, Open Play)Moses Simon 54' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Mika Biereth 55' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Denis Zakaria 58' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Mika Biereth 63' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Ben Seghir 67' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mika Biereth 77' — Missed Shot (0.62 xG, Open Play)George Ilenikhena 80' — Goal (0.63 xG, Open Play)Denis Zakaria 81' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)George Ilenikhena 85' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Al Musrati 86' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mamadou Coulibaly 93' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)George Ilenikhena 94' — Goal (0.33 xG, Open Play)
Monaco attacking right Nantes attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Moses Simon
2' Nantes Moses Simon 0.17 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
3' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal Moses Simon
8' Monaco Takumi Minamino 0.04 Set Piece Missed Shot Ben Seghir
13' Monaco Ben Seghir 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Lamine Camara
17' Monaco Maghnes Akliouche 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Caio Henrique
22' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.55 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Moses Simon
31' Nantes Kelvin Adou 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Moses Simon
32' Monaco Maghnes Akliouche 0.21 Open Play Missed Shot Caio Henrique
33' Monaco Lamine Camara 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
36' Monaco Maghnes Akliouche 0.45 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ben Seghir
42' Monaco Takumi Minamino 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
43' Monaco Mika Biereth 0.76 Open Play Right Foot Goal Takumi Minamino
44' Monaco Takumi Minamino 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Goal Lamine Camara
48' Monaco Ben Seghir 0.33 Open Play Left Foot Goal Takumi Minamino
53' Monaco Mika Biereth 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Goal
54' Nantes Moses Simon 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Pedro Chirivella
55' Monaco Mika Biereth 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Takumi Minamino
58' Monaco Denis Zakaria 0.02 From Corner Saved Shot Lamine Camara
63' Monaco Mika Biereth 0.76 Right Foot Goal
67' Monaco Ben Seghir 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Denis Zakaria
77' Monaco Mika Biereth 0.62 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Krépin Diatta
80' Monaco George Ilenikhena 0.63 Open Play Goal Caio Henrique
81' Monaco Denis Zakaria 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
85' Monaco George Ilenikhena 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Al Musrati
86' Monaco Al Musrati 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Denis Zakaria
93' Monaco Mamadou Coulibaly 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
94' Monaco George Ilenikhena 0.33 Open Play Left Foot Goal Al Musrati

Players

Monaco

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ben Seghir AML 90 1 0 3 2 0.40 0.49 3.24
Denis Zakaria DMC 90 0 0 2 2 0.07 0.07 1.55
Thilo Kehrer DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 2.42
Caio Henrique DL 90 0 1 0 3 0.00 0.92 2.91
Christian Mawissa Elebi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 2.02
Radoslaw Majecki GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.73
Mika Biereth FW 85 3 0 5 0 2.32 0.00 2.01
Maghnes Akliouche AMR 80 0 0 3 0 0.74 0.00 2.15
Takumi Minamino AMC 63 1 2 3 3 0.47 1.15 1.65
Lamine Camara DMC 63 0 1 1 3 0.02 0.44 0.57
Vanderson DR 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.27
George Ilenikhena Sub 27 2 0 3 0 1.06 0.00 1.10
Al Musrati Sub 27 0 1 1 2 0.04 0.43 1.76
Krépin Diatta Sub 27 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.62 0.66
Lucas Michal Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.47
Mamadou Coulibaly Sub 5 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04

Nantes

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Kelvin Adou DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.17
Pedro Chirivella MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.09
Nicolas Pallois DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.00
Johann Lepenant MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.27
Saidou Sow DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.64
Anthony Lopes GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matthis Abline FW 69 1 0 3 0 1.02 0.00 1.37
Moses Simon FW 69 0 1 2 4 0.27 1.10 1.37
Douglas Augusto MC 69 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Jean-Charles Castelletto DC 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Marcus Coco Sub 42 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Meschack Elia Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mostafa Mohamed Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bahereba Guirassy Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nicolas Cozza DL 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Louis Leroux Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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