Monaco v Nice — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 March 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 9
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.77 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.53 – +0.40
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
44.4%
Draw
25.0%
Nice win
30.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDDLDDL last 10
scored 5
from 10.6 xG
conceded 15
from 20.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.99–1.65 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 2.53 xGNice 0.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Nice attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 8' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Mika Biereth |
| 16' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Takumi Minamino |
| 19' |
 Nice |
Dante | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 21' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 23' |
Nice |
Pablo Rosario | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 25' |
Nice |
Jeremie Boga | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Baptiste Santamaria |
| 33' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Rosario |
| 36' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Denis Zakaria |
| 36' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 39' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wilfried Stephane Singo |
| 40' |
Nice |
Jeremie Boga | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Goal | Jonathan Clauss |
| 45' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 48' |
Monaco |
Wilfried Stephane Singo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Denis Zakaria |
| 54' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 57' |
Monaco |
Wilfried Stephane Singo | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 59' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 59' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Takumi Minamino |
| 61' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 67' |
Nice |
Evann Guessand | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ali Abdi |
| 69' |
Monaco |
Breel Embolo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Monaco |
Breel Embolo | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 77' |
Nice |
Gaetan Laborde | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Baptiste Santamaria |
| 81' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Takumi Minamino |
| 96' |
Nice |
Terem Igobor Moffi | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 96' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maghnes Akliouche MR | 90 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0.62 | 0.70 | 1.42 |
| Denis Zakaria MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.53 |
| Wilfried Stephane Singo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Lamine Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.49 |
| Caio Henrique DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Philipp Köhn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Breel Embolo FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.09 | 0.79 |
| Takumi Minamino ML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.78 |
| Mika Biereth FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.08 | 0.34 | 1.21 |
| Folarin Balogun Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Aleksandr Golovin Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Krépin Diatta Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Al Musrati Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremie Boga FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.03 | 0.45 |
| Evann Guessand FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Dante DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Marcin Bulka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonathan Clauss DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| Youssouf Ndayishimiye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Baptiste Santamaria MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| Ali Abdi DML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Moïse Bombito DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Pablo Rosario MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.37 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gaetan Laborde Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hichem Boudaoui Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tom Louchet Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sofiane Diop Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Terem Igobor Moffi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |