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Monterrey v Tigres UANL — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · MEX-Liga MX · 2627

MEX-Liga MX results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Monterrey win
36.8%
model 37.9%
Draw
26.6%
model 26.5%
Tigres UANL win
36.6%
model 35.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.4%
  2. 2-1 8.5%
  3. 1-2 8.3%
  4. 1-0 6.9%
  5. 0-1 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.556.6% Under 2.543.4%
BTTS yes60.5% BTTS no39.5%
Monterrey 1+77.7% Monterrey 2+44.2%
Tigres UANL 1+76.5% Tigres UANL 2+42.5%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.45. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
36/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Tigres UANL (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 53%
63.5% fair odds 1.58
moderate signal · 877 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Monterrey (2:0)
Handicap 2:0 · usually 90%
83.1% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 326 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Monterrey.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Monterrey have an estimated 36.8% win probability, against 36.6% for Tigres UANL and 26.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.50 for Monterrey and 1.45 for Tigres UANL.

Why Monterrey

Nothing in the data singles out Monterrey.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.6%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.50 to 1.45. Draws run at 24% in this competition.

Why Tigres UANL can win

Tigres UANL carry the stronger rating, 1551 Elo against 1466.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Monterrey, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Tigres UANL, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Monterrey: 57% possession, 18.6 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Tigres UANL: 54% possession, 20.0 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Monterrey are the model's most likely outcome at 36.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 36/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.50–1.45 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.40–1.47 1-1 13% 55% 59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL to win 38.2% 36.4% 29.3% 1.24× 2.75
Monterrey to win 34.9% 30.4% 47.1% 0.65× 3.29
Draw 26.9% 27.9% 23.8% 1.17× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw & both teams score 20.3% 21.9% 17.4% 1.26× 4.57
Tigres UANL & both teams score 20.2% 21.9% 17.8% 1.23× 4.57
Monterrey & both teams score 18.6% 17.9% 24.5% 0.73× 5.58
Tigres UANL & not both score 18.0% 17.9% 11.7% 1.53× 5.58
Monterrey & not both score 16.3% 17.9% 22.7% 0.79× 5.58
Draw & not both score 6.7% 8.4% 6.6% 1.28× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL & over 1.5 30.9% 30.9% 23.4% 1.32× 3.24
Monterrey & over 1.5 28.0% 26.0% 37.3% 0.70× 3.84
Tigres UANL & under 3.5 25.0% 26.0% 19.7% 1.32× 3.84
Tigres UANL & over 2.5 24.7% 21.7% 19.9% 1.09× 4.62
Monterrey & under 3.5 23.2% 21.7% 30.9% 0.70× 4.62
Monterrey & over 2.5 22.5% 21.7% 30.4% 0.71× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 20.3% 21.7% 17.4% 1.24× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 19.3% 18.0% 17.9% 1.00× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 19.3% 18.0% 17.9% 1.00× 5.56
Tigres UANL & under 2.5 13.4% 12.9% 9.6% 1.34× 7.77
Monterrey & under 2.5 12.4% 12.9% 16.9% 0.76× 7.77
Tigres UANL & over 3.5 13.1% 12.9% 9.8% 1.32× 7.77
Monterrey & over 3.5 11.7% 12.9% 16.3% 0.79× 7.77
Draw & over 2.5 7.6% 7.9% 6.0% 1.30× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 7.6% 7.9% 6.0% 1.30× 12.70
Tigres UANL & under 1.5 7.3% 7.9% 6.0% 1.30× 12.70
Monterrey & under 1.5 6.9% 7.9% 9.9% 0.79× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 6.7% 7.9% 6.6% 1.20× 12.70
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL (1UP) 56.0% 58.0% 1.72
Monterrey (1UP) 53.2% 52.7% 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL (2UP) 38.2% 37.2% 2.69
Monterrey (2UP) 34.9% 31.1% 3.22
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 34.9% 34.6% 2.89
Tigres UANL to win 2nd half 34.9% 34.6% 2.89
Monterrey to win 2nd half 30.1% 34.5% 2.90
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL (+2.5) 94.0% 92.1% 90.9% 1.01× 1.09
Tigres UANL (+1.5) 83.5% 82.4% 77.1% 1.07× 1.21
Tigres UANL (+0.5) 65.1% 68.7% 52.9% 1.30× 1.46
Monterrey (+0.5) 61.8% 62.9% 70.7% 0.89× 1.59
Tigres UANL (-0.5) 38.2% 37.1% 29.3% 1.27× 2.70
Monterrey (-0.5) 34.9% 31.3% 47.1% 0.67× 3.19
Monterrey (-1.5) 16.5% 17.6% 22.9% 0.77× 5.69
Monterrey (-2.5) 6.0% 7.9% 9.1% 0.87× 12.65
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL to concede 75.3% 79.0% 81.9% 0.96× 1.27
Tigres UANL clean sheet 24.7% 21.0% 18.1% 1.16× 4.76
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL to concede in 1st half 45.2% 50.6% 1.98
Tigres UANL clean sheet in 1st half 54.8% 49.4% 2.03
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL over 2.5 corners 81.2% 81.5% 1.23
Tigres UANL under 6.5 corners 72.7% 71.6% 1.40
Tigres UANL over 3.5 corners 67.3% 67.5% 1.48
Tigres UANL under 5.5 corners 61.2% 61.8% 1.62
Tigres UANL over 4.5 corners 52.5% 53.1% 1.88
Tigres UANL under 4.5 corners 47.5% 46.9% 2.13
Tigres UANL over 5.5 corners 38.8% 38.2% 2.62
Tigres UANL under 3.5 corners 32.7% 32.5% 3.08
Tigres UANL over 6.5 corners 27.3% 28.4% 3.52
Tigres UANL under 2.5 corners 18.8% 18.5% 5.39
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL under 3.5 goals 93.8% 92.3% 95.9% 0.96× 1.08
Tigres UANL under 2.5 goals 81.6% 81.4% 86.7% 0.94× 1.23
Tigres UANL over 0.5 goals 77.1% 76.2% 70.9% 1.08× 1.31
Tigres UANL under 1.5 goals 56.7% 59.5% 64.8% 0.92× 1.68
Tigres UANL over 1.5 goals 43.3% 40.5% 35.2% 1.15× 2.47
Tigres UANL under 0.5 goals 22.9% 23.8% 29.1% 0.82× 4.21
Tigres UANL over 2.5 goals 18.4% 18.6% 13.3% 1.40× 5.38
Tigres UANL over 3.5 goals 6.2% 7.7% 4.1% 1.88× 13.05
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL under 1.5 in 1st half 88.2% 89.1% 1.12
Tigres UANL under 0.5 in 1st half 55.5% 62.2% 1.61
Tigres UANL over 0.5 in 1st half 44.5% 37.8% 2.65
Tigres UANL over 1.5 in 1st half 11.8% 10.9% 9.16
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey (away no bet) 56.5% 57.4% 66.4% 0.86× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 43.5% 42.6% 33.6% 1.27× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL even goals 52.6% 52.8% 54.4% 0.97× 1.89
Tigres UANL odd goals 47.4% 47.2% 45.6% 1.03× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.3% 83.0% 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.7% 17.0% 5.87
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 67.3% 68.6% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 32.7% 31.4% 3.19
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 58.1% 55.2% 1.81
Tigres UANL to score 2+ in a row 34.0% 29.0% 3.44
Monterrey to score 2+ in a row 31.5% 28.9% 3.45
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.8% 19.5% 5.13
Tigres UANL to score 3+ in a row 11.3% 12.1% 8.24
Monterrey to score 3+ in a row 9.9% 5.7% 17.49
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL corners (+3.5) 82.3% 79.7% 1.25
Monterrey corners (+3.5) 81.2% 79.7% 1.25
Tigres UANL corners (+2.5) 75.0% 70.7% 1.41
Monterrey corners (+2.5) 73.7% 70.7% 1.41
Tigres UANL corners (+1.5) 66.1% 65.8% 1.52
Monterrey corners (+1.5) 64.6% 61.9% 1.62
Tigres UANL corners (-1.5) 35.4% 38.1% 2.63
Monterrey corners (-1.5) 33.9% 34.2% 2.92
Tigres UANL corners (-2.5) 26.3% 29.3% 3.42
Monterrey corners (-2.5) 25.0% 29.3% 3.42
Tigres UANL corners (-3.5) 18.8% 20.3% 4.93
Monterrey corners (-3.5) 17.7% 20.3% 4.94
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 38.3% 33.7% 2.96
12+ corners 32.8% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 29.0% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 75.0% 72.6% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 71.6% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 67.2% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 61.7% 63.4% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 58.3% 57.8% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 51.5% 53.3% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 48.5% 46.7% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 41.7% 42.2% 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 38.3% 36.6% 2.73
Over 11.5 corners 32.8% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 28.4% 27.4% 3.66
Over 12.5 corners 25.0% 27.4% 3.66
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.7% 11.5% 11.5% 0.99× 8.73
1-2 8.6% 7.4% 8.9% 0.84× 13.48
0-0 6.7% 7.4% 6.6% 1.13× 13.48
0-1 7.3% 7.4% 6.0% 1.23× 13.48
1-0 6.9% 7.4% 9.9% 0.75× 13.48
2-1 8.2% 7.4% 10.7% 0.70× 13.48
0-2 6.1% 7.4% 3.7% 1.99× 13.48
2-0 5.5% 7.4% 7.1% 1.04× 13.48
2-2 6.0% 7.4% 4.6% 1.61× 13.48
0-3 3.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.47
0-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.93× 58.48
1-3 4.2% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.47
1-4 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.93× 58.48
2-3 3.0% 1.7% 3.7% 0.46× 58.47
2-4 1.1% 1.7% 1.2% 1.38× 58.48
3-0 2.6% 1.7% 3.7% 0.46× 58.47
3-1 3.8% 1.7% 5.7% 0.30× 58.47
3-2 2.8% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.47
3-3 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.20× 58.48
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.93× 58.49
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1.38× 58.48
4-1 1.3% 1.7% 2.1% 0.80× 58.48
4-2 1.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.20× 58.48
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 2.41× 58.49
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.81× 58.49
Any other score 3.1% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey leading at HT (DNB) 50.7% 55.7% 1.80
Tigres UANL leading at HT (DNB) 49.3% 44.3% 2.26
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey or Tigres UANL (12) 73.1% 72.1% 76.2% 0.95× 1.39
Tigres UANL or draw (X2) 65.1% 69.6% 52.9% 1.32× 1.44
Monterrey or draw (1X) 61.8% 63.6% 70.7% 0.90× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey or draw at HT 71.7% 74.3% 1.35
Tigres UANL or draw at HT 70.8% 74.3% 1.35
Monterrey or Tigres UANL at HT 57.5% 56.9% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL or draw (1UP) 65.1% 75.8% 1.32
Monterrey or draw (1UP) 61.8% 71.6% 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL or draw in 2nd half 69.9% 65.5% 1.53
Monterrey or draw in 2nd half 65.1% 65.4% 1.53
Monterrey or Tigres UANL in 2nd half 65.1% 65.4% 1.53
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.5% 61.5% 1.63
Neither half drawn 38.5% 38.5% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL (DNB) 52.2% 50.9% 38.4% 1.33× 1.96
Monterrey (DNB) 47.8% 49.1% 61.6% 0.80× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL to score first 47.9% 45.6% 2.20
Monterrey to score first 45.5% 45.4% 2.20
No goal scored 6.7% 7.5% 13.35
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 59.1% 54.9% 59.3% 0.93× 1.82
Not both teams to score 40.9% 45.1% 40.7% 1.11× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 46.4% 44.3% 48.0% 0.92× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 32.6% 34.3% 32.7% 1.05× 2.92
Both score & under 2.5 12.7% 12.3% 11.5% 1.07× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.4% 8.4% 8.2% 1.02× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 82.3% 83.1% 82.6% 1.01× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 17.7% 17.0% 17.4% 0.97× 5.90
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 67.4% 67.6% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 32.6% 32.4% 3.09
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 53.6% 56.0% 1.79
Both score 2nd half only 26.1% 26.5% 3.78
Both score 1st half only 13.8% 10.8% 9.28
Both score in both halves 6.5% 6.8% 14.78
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 79.7% 81.6% 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 20.3% 18.4% 5.43
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 57.2% 57.3% 1.75
A half without a goal 42.8% 42.7% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.7% 47.4% 46.2% 1.03× 2.11
4-6 goals 29.7% 26.5% 29.1% 0.91× 3.78
0-1 goals 20.9% 22.8% 22.2% 1.03× 4.39
7+ goals 2.7% 1.8% 2.8% 0.65× 54.52
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL to score exactly 1 33.8% 33.8% 35.9% 0.94× 2.96
Tigres UANL to score exactly 2 24.9% 22.4% 22.0% 1.02× 4.46
Tigres UANL to score exactly 0 22.9% 22.4% 29.1% 0.77× 4.46
Tigres UANL to score 3+ 18.4% 19.6% 13.3% 1.47× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey to score exactly 1 34.5% 32.7% 33.4% 0.98× 3.06
Monterrey to score exactly 0 24.7% 23.3% 18.1% 1.28× 4.30
Monterrey to score exactly 2 24.2% 23.3% 26.6% 0.87× 4.30
Monterrey to score 3+ 16.6% 18.9% 22.2% 0.85× 5.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.5% 43.1% 2.32
Monterrey leading at HT 29.2% 25.7% 3.89
Tigres UANL leading at HT 28.3% 25.7% 3.89
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL -1: 1 61.8% 62.4% 1.60
Tigres UANL -1: X 19.4% 17.5% 5.71
Tigres UANL -1: 2 18.8% 17.5% 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL (0:1) 65.1% 65.4% 52.9% 1.24× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 18.4% 17.8% 24.3% 0.73× 5.63
Monterrey (0:1) 16.5% 17.8% 22.9% 0.78× 5.63
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL (0:2) 83.5% 82.8% 77.1% 1.07× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 10.5% 11.0% 14.0% 0.78× 9.13
Monterrey (0:2) 6.0% 7.7% 9.1% 0.85× 12.96
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL (0:3) 94.0% 92.6% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.2% 2.4% 6.0% 0.39× 42.07
Monterrey (0:3) 1.8% 2.4% 3.2% 0.74× 42.19
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL (0:4) 98.2% 98.1% 96.8% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 1.8% 0.67× 83.52
Monterrey (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 1.6% 0.75× 83.63
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey (1:0) 61.8% 65.1% 70.7% 0.92× 1.54
Draw (1:0) 19.4% 17.0% 19.0% 0.90× 5.87
Tigres UANL (1:0) 18.8% 17.0% 10.5% 1.63× 5.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey (2:0) 81.2% 84.5% 89.5% 0.94× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 11.6% 10.4% 7.3% 1.42× 9.64
Tigres UANL (2:0) 7.2% 6.5% 3.4% 1.91× 15.49
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.0% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 26.4% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 25.6% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey to concede 77.1% 75.9% 70.9% 1.07× 1.32
Monterrey clean sheet 22.9% 24.1% 29.1% 0.83× 4.16
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey clean sheet in 1st half 55.5% 62.2% 1.61
Monterrey to concede in 1st half 44.5% 37.8% 2.65
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey over 2.5 corners 80.5% 80.9% 1.24
Monterrey under 6.5 corners 73.7% 71.9% 1.39
Monterrey over 3.5 corners 66.4% 66.7% 1.50
Monterrey under 5.5 corners 62.3% 62.3% 1.61
Monterrey over 4.5 corners 51.4% 52.8% 1.90
Monterrey under 4.5 corners 48.6% 47.2% 2.12
Monterrey over 5.5 corners 37.7% 37.7% 2.65
Monterrey under 3.5 corners 33.6% 33.3% 3.00
Monterrey over 6.5 corners 26.3% 28.1% 3.56
Monterrey under 2.5 corners 19.5% 19.1% 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey under 3.5 goals 94.6% 92.3% 92.4% 1.00× 1.08
Monterrey under 2.5 goals 83.4% 82.1% 77.8% 1.06× 1.22
Monterrey over 0.5 goals 75.3% 77.7% 81.9% 0.95× 1.29
Monterrey under 1.5 goals 59.2% 58.8% 51.3% 1.15× 1.70
Monterrey over 1.5 goals 40.8% 41.2% 48.7% 0.85× 2.43
Monterrey under 0.5 goals 24.7% 22.3% 18.1% 1.23× 4.49
Monterrey over 2.5 goals 16.6% 17.9% 22.2% 0.81× 5.59
Monterrey over 3.5 goals 5.4% 7.7% 7.6% 1.01× 12.93
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey under 1.5 in 1st half 87.7% 89.8% 1.11
Monterrey over 0.5 in 1st half 45.2% 50.8% 1.97
Monterrey under 0.5 in 1st half 54.8% 49.2% 2.03
Monterrey over 1.5 in 1st half 12.3% 10.2% 9.77
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL (home no bet) 58.6% 56.7% 55.2% 1.03× 1.76
Draw (home no bet) 41.4% 43.3% 44.8% 0.97× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey even goals 53.0% 50.6% 49.9% 1.01× 1.98
Monterrey odd goals 47.0% 49.4% 50.1% 0.99× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.6% 32.2% 3.11
HT 1-0 18.1% 18.7% 5.34
HT 0-1 17.7% 18.7% 5.34
HT 1-1 11.0% 10.9% 9.17
HT 2-0 5.5% 7.1% 14.07
HT 0-2 5.3% 7.1% 14.08
Any other HT score 4.5% 2.3% 43.28
HT 2-1 3.2% 2.3% 43.37
HT 1-2 3.2% 2.3% 43.38
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.3% 43.54
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL at HT / Tigres UANL at FT 21.0% 21.8% 4.60
Monterrey at HT / Monterrey at FT 20.4% 21.7% 4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.0% 16.7% 5.97
Draw at HT / Tigres UANL at FT 14.3% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Monterrey at FT 12.3% 12.7% 7.89
Monterrey at HT / Draw at FT 5.9% 6.0% 16.71
Tigres UANL at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.0% 16.74
Monterrey at HT / Tigres UANL at FT 2.9% 3.5% 28.85
Tigres UANL at HT / Monterrey at FT 2.2% 3.5% 28.88
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL to score last 47.9% 46.7% 2.14
Monterrey to score last 45.5% 46.6% 2.15
No goal scored 6.7% 7.5% 13.35
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.3% 92.6% 1.08
Tigres UANL to lead by 1 at any time 56.0% 55.1% 1.82
Monterrey to lead by 1 at any time 53.2% 50.7% 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 48.1% 44.0% 2.27
Tigres UANL to lead by 2 at any time 25.4% 25.4% 3.94
Monterrey to lead by 2 at any time 23.0% 19.6% 5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.2% 14.9% 6.71
Tigres UANL to lead by 3 at any time 9.3% 6.7% 14.97
Monterrey to lead by 3 at any time 8.0% 6.7% 15.04
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL most corners 45.5% 46.9% 2.13
Monterrey most corners 44.0% 43.5% 2.30
Corners level 10.5% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.2% 87.4% 86.5% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.0% 78.6% 75.8% 1.04× 1.27
2-6 goals 76.4% 78.6% 75.1% 1.05× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.0% 72.4% 70.9% 1.02× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.7% 63.4% 60.2% 1.05× 1.58
1-3 goals 60.9% 63.4% 61.8% 1.03× 1.58
3-6 goals 52.0% 53.2% 53.3% 1.00× 1.88
3-5 goals 47.6% 48.7% 49.0% 0.99× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.7% 48.7% 46.2% 1.05× 2.06
1-2 goals 38.6% 39.2% 37.7% 1.04× 2.55
3-4 goals 38.4% 39.2% 38.4% 1.02× 2.55
4-6 goals 29.7% 30.3% 29.1% 1.04× 3.31
4-5 goals 25.3% 30.2% 24.9% 1.22× 3.31
5-6 goals 13.6% 14.9% 15.1% 0.99× 6.72
7+ goals 2.7% 2.6% 2.8% 0.90× 39.21
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL never behind 40.1% 48.1% 2.08
Monterrey never behind 37.3% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.8% 50.8% 52.6% 0.97× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.2% 49.2% 47.4% 1.04× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.0% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.0% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.4% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.6% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 93.3% 92.3% 93.4% 0.99× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.8% 92.3% 92.9% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 83.6% 82.4% 82.2% 1.00× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 79.1% 77.4% 77.8% 0.99× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 67.6% 66.2% 68.2% 0.97× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 54.8% 52.5% 56.0% 0.94× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 45.2% 47.5% 44.1% 1.08× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 32.4% 33.8% 31.8% 1.06× 2.96
Under 1.5 goals 20.9% 22.6% 22.2% 1.02× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 16.4% 17.6% 17.8% 0.99× 5.68
Over 5.5 goals 7.2% 7.7% 7.1% 1.09× 12.92
Under 0.5 goals 6.7% 7.7% 6.6% 1.18× 12.93
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.1% 97.2% 97.0% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.1% 92.5% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 80.5% 81.0% 79.3% 1.02× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 72.4% 72.6% 71.6% 1.01× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 58.2% 55.4% 58.1% 0.95× 1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 41.8% 44.6% 41.9% 1.06× 2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 27.6% 27.4% 28.4% 0.97× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 19.5% 19.0% 20.7% 0.92× 5.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.9% 7.5% 8.0% 0.95× 13.26
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 0.93× 36.14
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.1% 89.0% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.4% 69.0% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 66.4% 69.0% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 33.6% 31.0% 3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.6% 31.0% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.9% 11.0% 9.09
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.0% 82.8% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 76.2% 79.7% 1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 50.5% 53.1% 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 49.5% 46.9% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 23.8% 20.3% 4.93
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.0% 17.2% 5.81
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey not to score in both halves 75.1% 78.1% 1.28
Tigres UANL not to score in both halves 73.9% 73.8% 1.35
Tigres UANL to score in both halves 26.1% 26.2% 3.82
Monterrey to score in both halves 24.9% 21.9% 4.58
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 59.1% 58.4% 59.3% 0.98× 1.71
Only Tigres UANL scores 18.0% 16.1% 11.7% 1.37× 6.22
Only Monterrey scores 16.3% 16.1% 22.7% 0.71× 6.22
Neither team scores 6.7% 7.2% 6.6% 1.09× 13.92
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.3% 22.6% 22.0% 1.03× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 24.3% 0.93× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 16.0% 17.4% 14.2% 1.23× 5.74
Exactly 1 goals 14.2% 12.1% 15.8% 0.76× 8.27
Exactly 5 goals 9.2% 7.6% 10.8% 0.71× 13.08
6 or more goals 7.2% 7.6% 7.1% 1.08× 13.09
Exactly 0 goals 6.7% 7.6% 6.6% 1.16× 13.09
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 50.5% 51.2% 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 30.6% 33.4% 3.00
No goals in 2nd half 19.0% 17.2% 5.81
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey not to win both halves 91.1% 93.9% 1.07
Tigres UANL not to win both halves 89.9% 88.0% 1.14
Tigres UANL to win both halves 10.1% 12.0% 8.33
Monterrey to win both halves 8.9% 6.1% 16.42
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigres UANL to win either half 53.2% 55.0% 1.82
Monterrey to win either half 50.3% 54.9% 1.82
Monterrey to win neither half 49.7% 45.1% 2.22
Tigres UANL to win neither half 46.8% 45.0% 2.22
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Monterrey not to win to nil 83.7% 83.0% 77.3% 1.07× 1.20
Tigres UANL not to win to nil 82.0% 83.0% 88.3% 0.94× 1.21
Tigres UANL to win to nil 18.0% 17.0% 11.7% 1.45× 5.89
Monterrey to win to nil 16.3% 17.0% 22.7% 0.75× 5.89
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.9% 27.8% 23.8% 1.17× 3.59
Tigres UANL by 1 19.4% 16.9% 19.0% 0.89× 5.91
Monterrey by 1 18.4% 16.9% 24.3% 0.70× 5.91
Tigres UANL by 2 11.6% 11.8% 7.3% 1.62× 8.48
Monterrey by 2 10.5% 11.8% 14.0% 0.84× 8.48
Tigres UANL by 3+ 7.2% 7.3% 3.4% 2.15× 13.78
Monterrey by 3+ 6.0% 7.3% 9.1% 0.80× 13.79
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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