Monterrey v Tijuana — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · MEX-Liga MX · 2627

MEX-Liga MX results-only Prediction generated 6 Sep 2026, 02:06

Monterrey

21:00

Tijuana

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,347h before kick-off

Monterrey win

41.2%

model 43.8%

Draw

27.3%

model 26.2%

Tijuana win

31.6%

model 30.0%

412732

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.2%
2-1 9.2%
1-0 7.6%
1-2 7.4%
2-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.6%	Under 2.5	43.4%
BTTS yes	59.9%	BTTS no	40.1%
Monterrey 1+	80.4%	Monterrey 2+	48.5%
Tijuana 1+	73.3%	Tijuana 2+	38.0%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.32. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

36/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Monterrey.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Monterrey have an estimated 41.2% win probability, against 31.6% for Tijuana and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.63 for Monterrey and 1.32 for Tijuana.

Why Monterrey

Nothing in the data singles out Monterrey.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. Draws run at 24% in this competition.

Why Tijuana can win

Tijuana carry the stronger rating, 1595 Elo against 1466. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Monterrey, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Tijuana, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Monterrey: 57% possession, 18.6 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Tijuana: 42% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Monterrey are the model's most likely outcome at 41.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Confidence 36/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	422533	1.69–1.48	1-1 11%	61%	64%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey to win	41.8%	43.0%	47.1%	0.91×	2.33
Tijuana to win	33.0%	30.4%	29.3%	1.04×	3.29
Draw	25.3%	27.8%	23.8%	1.17×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey & both teams score	24.2%	21.9%	24.5%	0.89×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	20.1%	21.9%	17.4%	1.26×	4.57
Tijuana & both teams score	19.6%	17.9%	17.8%	1.01×	5.58
Monterrey & not both score	17.6%	17.9%	22.7%	0.79×	5.58
Tijuana & not both score	13.4%	13.3%	11.7%	1.13×	7.54
Draw & not both score	5.1%	8.4%	6.6%	1.27×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey & over 1.5	35.6%	34.9%	37.3%	0.94×	2.87
Monterrey & over 2.5	29.6%	26.0%	30.4%	0.86×	3.84
Tijuana & over 1.5	27.7%	26.0%	23.4%	1.11×	3.84
Monterrey & under 3.5	24.4%	21.6%	30.9%	0.70×	4.62
Tijuana & over 2.5	23.1%	21.6%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	20.1%	21.6%	17.4%	1.24×	4.62
Tijuana & under 3.5	20.0%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Monterrey & over 3.5	17.4%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.5%	18.0%	17.9%	1.00×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.5%	18.0%	17.9%	1.00×	5.56
Tijuana & over 3.5	13.0%	12.9%	9.8%	1.32×	7.77
Monterrey & under 2.5	12.1%	12.9%	16.9%	0.76×	7.77
Tijuana & under 2.5	9.9%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	8.7%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	8.7%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.70
Monterrey & under 1.5	6.2%	7.9%	9.9%	0.79×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	5.1%	7.9%	6.6%	1.20×	12.70
Tijuana & under 1.5	5.3%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey (1UP)	60.3%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Tijuana (1UP)	52.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey (2UP)	41.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Tijuana (2UP)	33.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey to win 2nd half	35.5%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
2nd half drawn	32.9%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Tijuana to win 2nd half	31.6%	34.2%	—	—	2.92

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana (+2.5)	90.7%	92.1%	90.9%	1.01×	1.09
Tijuana (+1.5)	77.8%	78.5%	77.1%	1.02×	1.28
Monterrey (+0.5)	67.0%	68.7%	70.7%	0.97×	1.46
Tijuana (+0.5)	58.2%	57.0%	52.9%	1.08×	1.75
Monterrey (-0.5)	41.8%	43.0%	47.1%	0.91×	2.33
Tijuana (-0.5)	33.0%	31.3%	29.3%	1.07×	3.19
Monterrey (-1.5)	22.2%	21.5%	22.9%	0.94×	4.64
Monterrey (-2.5)	9.3%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.62

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana to concede	81.5%	81.3%	81.9%	0.99×	1.23
Tijuana clean sheet	18.5%	18.7%	18.1%	1.03×	5.35

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana clean sheet in 1st half	48.4%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Tijuana to concede in 1st half	51.6%	49.4%	—	—	2.02

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana under 6.5 corners	91.2%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Tijuana under 5.5 corners	84.2%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Tijuana under 4.5 corners	73.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Tijuana over 2.5 corners	60.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Tijuana under 3.5 corners	58.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Tijuana over 3.5 corners	42.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Tijuana under 2.5 corners	39.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Tijuana over 4.5 corners	26.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Tijuana over 5.5 corners	15.8%	18.5%	—	—	5.39
Tijuana over 6.5 corners	8.8%	9.9%	—	—	10.05

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana under 3.5 goals	93.7%	92.4%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Tijuana under 2.5 goals	81.3%	81.4%	86.7%	0.94×	1.23
Tijuana over 0.5 goals	77.3%	76.2%	70.9%	1.08×	1.31
Tijuana under 1.5 goals	56.4%	59.5%	64.8%	0.92×	1.68
Tijuana over 1.5 goals	43.6%	40.5%	35.2%	1.15×	2.47
Tijuana under 0.5 goals	22.7%	23.8%	29.1%	0.82×	4.21
Tijuana over 2.5 goals	18.7%	18.6%	13.3%	1.39×	5.38
Tijuana over 3.5 goals	6.3%	7.6%	4.1%	1.87×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana under 1.5 in 1st half	88.0%	89.4%	—	—	1.12
Tijuana under 0.5 in 1st half	55.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.60
Tijuana over 0.5 in 1st half	44.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.66
Tijuana over 1.5 in 1st half	12.0%	10.6%	—	—	9.47

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey (away no bet)	62.3%	62.1%	66.4%	0.94×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	37.7%	37.9%	33.6%	1.13×	2.64

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana even goals	52.6%	52.8%	54.4%	0.97×	1.90
Tijuana odd goals	47.4%	47.2%	45.6%	1.03×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.0%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.7%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	27.3%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.3%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Monterrey to score 2+ in a row	39.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Tijuana to score 2+ in a row	32.9%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.5%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Monterrey to score 3+ in a row	14.6%	12.2%	—	—	8.22
Tijuana to score 3+ in a row	10.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.30

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey corners (+3.5)	95.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Monterrey corners (+2.5)	91.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Monterrey corners (+1.5)	86.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Tijuana corners (+3.5)	62.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Monterrey corners (-1.5)	58.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Tijuana corners (+2.5)	52.3%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Monterrey corners (-2.5)	47.7%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Tijuana corners (+1.5)	41.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Monterrey corners (-3.5)	37.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Tijuana corners (-1.5)	14.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Tijuana corners (-2.5)	8.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Tijuana corners (-3.5)	5.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.4%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	28.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	25.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.3%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.5%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	66.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.3%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	56.8%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	46.4%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	43.2%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.7%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	33.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 11.5 corners	25.5%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	18.7%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.4%	11.4%	11.5%	0.99×	8.74
2-1	8.9%	7.4%	10.7%	0.70×	13.47
1-2	7.8%	7.4%	8.9%	0.84×	13.47
2-2	6.6%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.47
0-1	5.3%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.47
1-0	6.2%	7.4%	9.9%	0.75×	13.47
2-0	6.0%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.47
0-0	5.1%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.47
3-1	5.0%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.50
0-2	4.6%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.50
0-3	2.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.51
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.92×	58.52
1-3	3.9%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.50
1-4	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.92×	58.52
2-3	3.3%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.51
2-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.37×	58.52
3-0	3.4%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.50
3-2	3.7%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.50
3-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.51
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.92×	58.52
4-0	1.4%	1.7%	1.2%	1.37×	58.52
4-1	2.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.51
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.52
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.41×	58.52
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.81×	58.52
Any other score	4.6%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey leading at HT (DNB)	56.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Tijuana leading at HT (DNB)	43.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey or Tijuana (12)	74.7%	72.2%	76.2%	0.95×	1.39
Monterrey or draw (1X)	67.0%	69.6%	70.7%	0.98×	1.44
Tijuana or draw (X2)	58.2%	57.0%	52.9%	1.08×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey or draw at HT	74.0%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Tijuana or draw at HT	65.9%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Monterrey or Tijuana at HT	60.1%	62.2%	—	—	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey or draw (1UP)	67.0%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Tijuana or draw (1UP)	58.2%	62.8%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey or draw in 2nd half	68.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Monterrey or Tijuana in 2nd half	67.1%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Tijuana or draw in 2nd half	64.5%	63.8%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.6%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	41.4%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey (DNB)	55.9%	58.2%	61.6%	0.94×	1.72
Tijuana (DNB)	44.1%	41.8%	38.4%	1.09×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey to score first	50.5%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
Tijuana to score first	44.4%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	5.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.49

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.9%	56.5%	59.3%	0.95×	1.77
Not both teams to score	36.1%	43.5%	40.7%	1.07×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	52.5%	47.1%	48.0%	0.98×	2.13
Not both score & under 2.5	27.2%	33.6%	32.7%	1.03×	2.98
Both score & under 2.5	11.4%	12.3%	11.5%	1.07×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.4%	8.2%	1.02×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.0%	80.0%	82.6%	0.97×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	22.0%	20.0%	17.4%	1.15×	5.00

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	63.3%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	36.7%	34.1%	—	—	2.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	48.4%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
Both score 2nd half only	28.3%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
Both score 1st half only	14.8%	10.6%	—	—	9.44
Both score in both halves	8.4%	6.8%	—	—	14.73

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.8%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	23.2%	18.7%	—	—	5.34

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.2%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
A half without a goal	37.8%	41.4%	—	—	2.42

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.3%	42.1%	46.2%	0.91×	2.38
4-6 goals	34.8%	30.8%	29.1%	1.06×	3.25
0-1 goals	16.6%	20.2%	22.2%	0.91×	4.95
7+ goals	4.3%	1.8%	2.8%	0.64×	54.80

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana to score exactly 1	33.7%	33.9%	35.9%	0.94×	2.95
Tijuana to score exactly 2	25.0%	22.4%	22.0%	1.02×	4.46
Tijuana to score exactly 0	22.7%	22.4%	29.1%	0.77×	4.46
Tijuana to score 3+	18.7%	19.6%	13.3%	1.47×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey to score exactly 1	31.2%	32.6%	33.4%	0.98×	3.06
Monterrey to score exactly 2	26.3%	26.5%	26.6%	0.99×	3.77
Monterrey to score 3+	24.0%	23.3%	22.2%	1.05×	4.30
Monterrey to score exactly 0	18.5%	18.9%	18.1%	1.04×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.9%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Monterrey leading at HT	34.1%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
Tijuana leading at HT	26.0%	25.4%	—	—	3.94

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey -1: 2	58.2%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Monterrey -1: 1	22.2%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Monterrey -1: X	19.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana (0:1)	58.2%	55.8%	52.9%	1.06×	1.79
Monterrey (0:1)	22.2%	24.3%	22.9%	1.06×	4.12
Draw (0:1)	19.6%	17.8%	24.3%	0.73×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana (0:2)	77.8%	79.5%	77.1%	1.03×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	12.8%	11.0%	14.0%	0.78×	9.10
Monterrey (0:2)	9.3%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana (0:3)	90.7%	92.6%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.1%	5.8%	6.0%	0.96×	17.20
Monterrey (0:3)	3.3%	2.4%	3.2%	0.74×	42.07

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana (0:4)	96.7%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.3%	1.2%	1.8%	0.68×	83.34
Monterrey (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	1.6%	0.75×	83.50

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey (1:0)	67.0%	69.9%	70.7%	0.99×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	17.1%	17.0%	19.0%	0.90×	5.87
Tijuana (1:0)	15.9%	17.0%	10.5%	1.62×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey (2:0)	84.1%	84.6%	89.5%	0.95×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	9.9%	6.5%	7.3%	0.89×	15.49
Tijuana (2:0)	6.0%	6.4%	3.4%	1.91×	15.54

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.2%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	24.1%	24.3%	—	—	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey to concede	77.3%	75.9%	70.9%	1.07×	1.32
Monterrey clean sheet	22.7%	24.1%	29.1%	0.83×	4.15

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey clean sheet in 1st half	55.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.60
Monterrey to concede in 1st half	44.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.66

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey over 2.5 corners	86.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Monterrey over 3.5 corners	75.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Monterrey under 6.5 corners	63.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Monterrey over 4.5 corners	62.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Monterrey under 5.5 corners	50.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Monterrey over 5.5 corners	49.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Monterrey under 4.5 corners	37.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Monterrey over 6.5 corners	37.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Monterrey under 3.5 corners	24.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Monterrey under 2.5 corners	13.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey under 3.5 goals	90.9%	92.3%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Monterrey over 0.5 goals	81.5%	82.1%	81.9%	1.00×	1.22
Monterrey under 2.5 goals	76.0%	77.7%	77.8%	1.00×	1.29
Monterrey over 1.5 goals	50.3%	53.2%	48.7%	1.09×	1.88
Monterrey under 1.5 goals	49.7%	46.8%	51.3%	0.91×	2.14
Monterrey over 2.5 goals	24.0%	22.3%	22.2%	1.00×	4.49
Monterrey under 0.5 goals	18.5%	17.9%	18.1%	0.99×	5.59
Monterrey over 3.5 goals	9.1%	7.7%	7.6%	1.01×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey under 1.5 in 1st half	83.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Monterrey under 0.5 in 1st half	48.4%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Monterrey over 0.5 in 1st half	51.6%	49.3%	—	—	2.03
Monterrey over 1.5 in 1st half	16.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.47

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana (home no bet)	56.6%	56.7%	55.2%	1.03×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	43.4%	43.3%	44.8%	0.97×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey even goals	51.7%	50.6%	49.9%	1.01×	1.98
Monterrey odd goals	48.3%	49.4%	50.1%	0.99×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	26.9%	29.0%	—	—	3.44
HT 1-0	19.3%	18.8%	—	—	5.31
HT 0-1	15.7%	18.7%	—	—	5.33
HT 1-1	11.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 2-0	7.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.18
Any other HT score	5.9%	7.0%	—	—	14.19
HT 0-2	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.72
HT 2-1	4.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.76
HT 1-2	3.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.81
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.98

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey at HT / Monterrey at FT	25.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Tijuana at HT / Tijuana at FT	18.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Monterrey at FT	13.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Tijuana at FT	12.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Monterrey at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.63
Tijuana at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Monterrey at HT / Tijuana at FT	2.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
Tijuana at HT / Monterrey at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.88

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey to score last	50.5%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Tijuana to score last	44.3%	40.4%	—	—	2.48
No goal scored	5.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.49

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.9%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Monterrey to lead by 1 at any time	60.3%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Tijuana to lead by 1 at any time	52.9%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.6%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Monterrey to lead by 2 at any time	29.9%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
Tijuana to lead by 2 at any time	23.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.3%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Monterrey to lead by 3 at any time	12.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.62
Tijuana to lead by 3 at any time	8.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.19

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey most corners	69.3%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Tijuana most corners	21.4%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	9.3%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.7%	83.5%	86.5%	0.97×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.1%	78.6%	75.1%	1.05×	1.27
1-4 goals	73.5%	72.4%	75.8%	0.95×	1.38
2-5 goals	73.2%	72.4%	70.9%	1.02×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.0%	63.4%	60.2%	1.05×	1.58
3-6 goals	57.1%	59.2%	53.3%	1.11×	1.69
1-3 goals	55.8%	59.2%	61.8%	0.96×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.2%	53.2%	49.0%	1.08×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.3%	43.6%	46.2%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.0%	39.2%	38.4%	1.02×	2.55
4-6 goals	34.8%	35.4%	29.1%	1.21×	2.83
1-2 goals	33.5%	35.4%	37.7%	0.94×	2.83
4-5 goals	28.9%	30.2%	24.9%	1.22×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.1%	18.6%	15.1%	1.23×	5.37
7+ goals	4.3%	2.5%	2.8%	0.89×	39.32

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey never behind	42.0%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Tijuana never behind	34.6%	35.9%	—	—	2.79

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.1%	50.8%	52.6%	0.97×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.9%	49.2%	47.4%	1.04×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.9%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.1%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.9%	92.3%	93.4%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	89.8%	87.7%	92.9%	0.94×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	83.4%	82.4%	77.8%	1.06×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	78.6%	77.4%	82.2%	0.94×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	61.4%	61.7%	56.0%	1.10×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	60.9%	61.7%	68.2%	0.90×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	39.1%	38.3%	31.8%	1.20×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	38.6%	38.3%	44.1%	0.87×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	21.4%	22.6%	17.8%	1.27×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	16.6%	17.6%	22.2%	0.79×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	10.2%	12.3%	7.1%	1.74×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	5.1%	7.7%	6.6%	1.17×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.5%	97.2%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.5%	86.8%	92.0%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	78.7%	75.9%	71.6%	1.06×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	74.0%	72.6%	79.3%	0.92×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.3%	51.8%	41.9%	1.23×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.7%	48.2%	58.1%	0.83×	2.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	26.0%	27.4%	20.7%	1.33×	3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	21.3%	24.1%	28.4%	0.85×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.5%	13.3%	8.0%	1.67×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.5%	2.8%	3.0%	0.93×	36.28

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.3%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	73.1%	70.9%	—	—	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	61.9%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	38.1%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	26.9%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.0%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.7%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.6%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.4%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.3%	22.3%	—	—	4.48
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.0%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana not to score in both halves	73.6%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Monterrey not to score in both halves	68.1%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
Monterrey to score in both halves	31.9%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Tijuana to score in both halves	26.4%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	63.9%	60.3%	59.3%	1.02×	1.66
Only Monterrey scores	17.6%	16.1%	22.7%	0.71×	6.22
Only Tijuana scores	13.4%	10.9%	11.7%	0.93×	9.13
Neither team scores	5.1%	7.2%	6.6%	1.09×	13.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.0%	22.6%	22.0%	1.03×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.7%	17.4%	14.2%	1.23×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	11.5%	12.1%	15.8%	0.76×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	11.2%	12.1%	10.8%	1.11×	8.29
6 or more goals	10.2%	12.1%	7.1%	1.70×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	5.1%	7.6%	6.6%	1.16×	13.10

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.6%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
1 goal in 2nd half	28.4%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	16.0%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana not to win both halves	91.7%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Monterrey not to win both halves	87.7%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Monterrey to win both halves	12.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
Tijuana to win both halves	8.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.53

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monterrey to win either half	57.4%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Tijuana to win neither half	50.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Tijuana to win either half	49.2%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Monterrey to win neither half	42.6%	40.6%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana not to win to nil	86.6%	88.2%	88.3%	1.00×	1.13
Monterrey not to win to nil	82.4%	83.0%	77.3%	1.07×	1.21
Monterrey to win to nil	17.6%	17.0%	22.7%	0.75×	5.89
Tijuana to win to nil	13.4%	11.8%	11.7%	1.01×	8.47

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.3%	27.8%	23.8%	1.17×	3.60
Monterrey by 1	19.6%	17.0%	24.3%	0.70×	5.90
Tijuana by 1	17.1%	16.9%	19.0%	0.89×	5.90
Monterrey by 2	12.8%	11.8%	14.0%	0.84×	8.47
Tijuana by 2	9.9%	7.3%	7.3%	1.00×	13.79
Monterrey by 3+	9.3%	7.3%	9.1%	0.80×	13.79
Tijuana by 3+	6.0%	7.2%	3.4%	2.15×	13.81