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Montpellier v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 October 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

0–5
1.76 – 3.88 xG
Shots
13 – 21
On target
5 – 10
Shots in box
8 – 15
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-1.77 – +0.99
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.12.23.44.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Sepe Elye Wahi 0' — goalAmine Harit 35' — goalPierre-Emile Højbjerg 39' — goalMason Greenwood 57' — goalLuis Henrique 72' — goal
Montpellier 1.77 xGMarseille 4.01 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jonathan Rowe 0' — Missed Shot (0.18 xG, Open Play)Sepe Elye Wahi 0' — Goal (0.70 xG, Open Play)Téji Savanier 6' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Jonathan Rowe 16' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Sepe Elye Wahi 16' — Saved Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)Ulisses García 17' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Akor Adams 22' — Missed Shot (0.56 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Rowe 28' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 32' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Nordin 32' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Akor Adams 33' — Missed Shot (0.61 xG, Open Play)Amine Harit 35' — Goal (0.34 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 39' — Goal (0.32 xG, Open Play)Amine Harit 45' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Téji Savanier 47' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Rowe 48' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Pol Lirola 48' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Sepe Elye Wahi 48' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Akor Adams 50' — Saved Shot (0.18 xG, Set Piece)Jonathan Rowe 51' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Sepe Elye Wahi 52' — Saved Shot (0.39 xG, Open Play)Sepe Elye Wahi 54' — Shot On Post (0.13 xG, Open Play)Tanguy Coulibaly 56' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 57' — Goal (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jordan Ferri 62' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Sepe Elye Wahi 65' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Nordin 68' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Luis Henrique 72' — Goal (0.66 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 76' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Tanguy Coulibaly 78' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Nordin 79' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Adrien Rabiot 84' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lucas Mincarelli Davin 86' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Wahbi Khazri 90' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)
Montpellier attacking right Marseille attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Marseille Jonathan Rowe 0.18 Open Play Missed Shot Mason Greenwood
0' Marseille Sepe Elye Wahi 0.70 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jonathan Rowe
6' Montpellier Téji Savanier 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
16' Marseille Jonathan Rowe 0.10 Open Play Saved Shot Mason Greenwood
16' Marseille Sepe Elye Wahi 0.46 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jonathan Rowe
17' Marseille Ulisses García 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
22' Montpellier Akor Adams 0.56 Open Play Missed Shot Arnaud Nordin
28' Marseille Jonathan Rowe 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Sepe Elye Wahi
32' Marseille Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pol Lirola
32' Montpellier Arnaud Nordin 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Akor Adams
33' Montpellier Akor Adams 0.61 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
35' Marseille Amine Harit 0.34 Open Play Right Foot Goal Ulisses García
39' Marseille Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Goal Mason Greenwood
45' Marseille Amine Harit 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Sepe Elye Wahi
47' Montpellier Téji Savanier 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
48' Marseille Jonathan Rowe 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Amine Harit
48' Marseille Pol Lirola 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot
48' Marseille Sepe Elye Wahi 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
50' Montpellier Akor Adams 0.18 Set Piece Saved Shot Téji Savanier
51' Marseille Jonathan Rowe 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Amine Harit
52' Marseille Sepe Elye Wahi 0.39 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Amine Harit
54' Marseille Sepe Elye Wahi 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post
56' Montpellier Tanguy Coulibaly 0.05 Open Play Blocked Shot Arnaud Nordin
57' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Goal Sepe Elye Wahi
62' Montpellier Jordan Ferri 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
65' Marseille Sepe Elye Wahi 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Adrien Rabiot
68' Montpellier Arnaud Nordin 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Akor Adams
72' Marseille Luis Henrique 0.66 Open Play Left Foot Goal
76' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Amine Harit
78' Montpellier Tanguy Coulibaly 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Arnaud Nordin
79' Montpellier Arnaud Nordin 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Falaye Sacko
84' Marseille Adrien Rabiot 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Enzo Sternal
86' Montpellier Lucas Mincarelli Davin 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Wahbi Khazri
90' Montpellier Wahbi Khazri 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Akor Adams

Players

Marseille

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC 90 1 0 2 0 0.35 0.00 1.06
Mason Greenwood AMR 90 1 1 2 3 0.20 0.61 0.89
Adrien Rabiot DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.10 0.65
Leonardo Balerdi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Gerónimo Rulli GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Derek Cornelius DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.68
Amine Harit AMC 83 1 0 2 4 0.37 0.60 1.42
Ulisses García DL 83 0 1 1 1 0.03 0.34 0.43
Sepe Elye Wahi FW 74 1 1 6 3 1.89 0.17 2.37
Jonathan Rowe AML 64 0 1 5 2 0.43 1.17 1.47
Pol Lirola DR 64 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.03 0.21
Luis Henrique Sub 26 1 0 1 0 0.66 0.00 0.69
Amir Murillo Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Ismaël Koné Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Enzo Sternal Sub 7 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Valentin Rongier Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02

Montpellier

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Akor Adams FW 90 0 0 3 3 1.35 0.22 1.39
Arnaud Nordin AMR 90 0 0 3 3 0.20 0.64 0.84
Téji Savanier AMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.05 0.18 0.78
Benjamin Lecomte GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Birama Touré DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.60
Falaye Sacko DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.06
Rabby Nzingoula DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.56
Tanguy Coulibaly AML 89 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Issiaga Sylla DL 60 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.56
Becir Omeragic DC 59 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.56
Jordan Ferri Sub 52 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.06
Joris Chotard DMC 38 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.56
Lucas Mincarelli Davin Sub 30 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.06
Stefan Dzodic Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wahbi Khazri Sub 1 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.01 0.07
Enzo Tchato Mbiayi Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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