Monza v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 May 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 15
On target
7 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 15
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.73
Goals − xG
-0.83 – +0.88
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monza win
10.0%
Draw
22.8%
Atalanta win
67.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monza are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 6.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLWLLLL last 10
scored 7
from 10.3 xG
conceded 24
from 17.7 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDLDWLDWW last 10
scored 13
from 14.0 xG
conceded 10
from 14.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.66–1.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.75–2.32 | 0-2 12% | 59% | 48% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monza 0.83 xGAtalanta 3.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monza attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Atalanta |
Mateo Retegui | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 11' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.56 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mateo Retegui |
| 13' |
 Monza |
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Bianco |
| 16' |
Atalanta |
Mateo Retegui | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 17' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mateo Retegui |
| 18' |
Monza |
Samuele Birindelli | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Bianco |
| 22' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 27' |
Monza |
Gianluca Caprari | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Pereira |
| 35' |
Monza |
Gianluca Caprari | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samuele Birindelli |
| 38' |
Monza |
Georgios Kyriakopoulos | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mateo Retegui |
| 46' |
Monza |
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samuele Birindelli |
| 47' |
Monza |
Gianluca Caprari | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gaetano Castrovilli |
| 50' |
Atalanta |
Mateo Retegui | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marten de Roon |
| 51' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Berat Gjimshiti |
| 54' |
Atalanta |
Isak Hien | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 54' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.52 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Monza |
Georgios Kyriakopoulos | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Caprari |
| 58' |
Atalanta |
Mateo Retegui | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 60' |
Monza |
Dany Mota | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Omari Forson |
| 60' |
Monza |
Georgios Kyriakopoulos | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Monza |
Stefan Lekovic | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Omari Forson |
| 74' |
Monza |
Samuele Vignato | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Omari Forson |
| 76' |
Monza |
Omari Forson | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dany Mota |
| 79' |
Atalanta |
Daniel Maldini | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Cuadrado |
| 86' |
Atalanta |
Isak Hien | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Juan Cuadrado |
| 87' |
Atalanta |
Marco Brescianini | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 87' |
Atalanta |
Marco Brescianini | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mario Pasalic |
Players
Monza
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Samuele Birindelli DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.54 |
| Dany Mota FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| Tomás Palacios DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Semuel Pizzignacco GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Bianco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| Georgios Kyriakopoulos DML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Arvid Brorsson Sub | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Gianluca Caprari AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Gaetano Castrovilli MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Pedro Pereira DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Omari Forson Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.13 | 0.42 |
| Stefan Lekovic Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuele Vignato Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Luca Caldirola DC | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Patrick Ciurria Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Éderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Isak Hien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Davide Zappacosta DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.66 |
| Raoul Bellanova DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1.20 |
| Ademola Lookman AMC | 82 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.65 |
| Mateo Retegui FW | 78 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0.32 | 1.03 | 1.30 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.37 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 66 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.67 | 0.12 | 1.30 |
| Odilon Kossounou DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Rafael Toloi Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Mario Pasalic Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.99 |
| Daniel Maldini Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Juan Cuadrado Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| Marco Brescianini Sub | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.68 |