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Monza v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 22 September 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–2
0.71 – 1.45 xG
Shots
6 – 15
On target
3 – 8
Shots in box
3 – 9
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.28 – +0.55
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.21.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Kacper Urbanski 23' — goalMilan Djuric 42' — goalSantiago Castro 79' — goal
Monza 0.72 xGBologna 1.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Dan Ndoye 3' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Pedro Pereira 9' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Alessandro Bianco 10' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jens Odgaard 19' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Michel Aebischer 21' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Kacper Urbanski 23' — Goal (0.31 xG, Open Play)Kacper Urbanski 30' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Santiago Castro 35' — Saved Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Dan Ndoye 38' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 42' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Milan Djuric 42' — Goal (0.56 xG, Open Play)Santiago Castro 48' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Bianco 50' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Charalampos Lykogiannis 55' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Dan Ndoye 55' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Dan Ndoye 73' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Charalampos Lykogiannis 74' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Santiago Castro 79' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Matteo Pessina 82' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Michel Aebischer 83' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Nikola Moro 89' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Direct Freekick)
Monza attacking right Bologna attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Bologna Dan Ndoye 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Kacper Urbanski
9' Monza Pedro Pereira 0.02 From Corner Saved Shot Georgios Kyriakopoulos
10' Monza Alessandro Bianco 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Georgios Kyriakopoulos
19' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Kacper Urbanski
21' Bologna Michel Aebischer 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Santiago Castro
23' Bologna Kacper Urbanski 0.31 Open Play Goal Charalampos Lykogiannis
30' Bologna Kacper Urbanski 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Remo Freuler
35' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Kacper Urbanski
38' Bologna Dan Ndoye 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Federico Ravaglia
42' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Matteo Pessina
42' Monza Milan Djuric 0.56 Open Play Left Foot Goal
48' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jens Odgaard
50' Monza Alessandro Bianco 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Georgios Kyriakopoulos
55' Bologna Charalampos Lykogiannis 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Remo Freuler
55' Bologna Dan Ndoye 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Michel Aebischer
73' Bologna Dan Ndoye 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Kacper Urbanski
74' Bologna Charalampos Lykogiannis 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Michel Aebischer
79' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Goal Remo Freuler
82' Monza Matteo Pessina 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alessandro Bianco
83' Bologna Michel Aebischer 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Dan Ndoye
89' Bologna Nikola Moro 0.07 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot

Players

Monza

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Alessandro Bianco MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.08 0.03 0.14
Matteo Pessina MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.02 0.06
Stefano Turati GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Pablo Marí DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Andrea Carboni DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Georgios Kyriakopoulos DML 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.10 0.11
Pedro Pereira DMR 89 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.09
Milan Djuric FW 83 1 0 1 0 0.56 0.00 0.56
Armando Izzo DC 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Daniel Maldini AMC 72 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Dany Mota AMC 72 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Gianluca Caprari Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Omari Forson Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Warren Bondo Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mirko Maric Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Danilo D'Ambrosio Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bologna

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Santiago Castro FW 90 1 0 3 1 0.46 0.05 0.88
Dan Ndoye FWL 90 0 0 4 1 0.26 0.08 0.37
Michel Aebischer MC 90 0 0 2 2 0.13 0.06 0.20
Charalampos Lykogiannis DL 90 0 1 2 1 0.05 0.31 0.41
Remo Freuler MC 90 0 1 0 3 0.00 0.16 0.67
Jhon Lucumí DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
Federico Ravaglia GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.46
Kacper Urbanski MC 79 1 0 2 4 0.41 0.60 1.07
Lorenzo De Silvestri DR 79 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.58
Jens Odgaard FWR 72 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.07 0.21
Nicolò Casale DC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.36
Sam Beukema Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Samuel Iling-Junior Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Nikola Moro Sub 11 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.00
Stefan Posch Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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