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Monza v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 13 January 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

2–1
0.99 – 1.61 xG
Shots
10 – 11
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
5 – 7
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.82
Goals − xG
+1.01 – -0.61
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.50.91.41.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Patrick Ciurria 43' — goalDaniel Maldini 62' — goalLucas Beltrán 73' — goal
Monza 0.99 xGFiorentina 1.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Albert Gudmundsson 4' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Patrick Ciurria 6' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Sottil 11' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Andrea Colpani 12' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Warren Bondo 23' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Patrick Ciurria 42' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, From Corner)Patrick Ciurria 43' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 46' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 46' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Dodô 51' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Lucas Beltrán 52' — Blocked Shot (0.44 xG, Open Play)Yacine Adli 57' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Robin Gosens 59' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 62' — Goal (0.30 xG, Open Play)Lucas Beltrán 73' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Pedro Pereira 77' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 79' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Christian Kouamé 82' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Warren Bondo 83' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Milan Djuric 84' — Saved Shot (0.26 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Ikone 91' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)
Monza attacking right Fiorentina attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Fiorentina Albert Gudmundsson 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Pietro Comuzzo
6' Monza Patrick Ciurria 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
11' Fiorentina Riccardo Sottil 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Albert Gudmundsson
12' Fiorentina Andrea Colpani 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Amir Richardson
23' Monza Warren Bondo 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Daniel Maldini
42' Monza Patrick Ciurria 0.13 From Corner Missed Shot Gianluca Caprari
43' Monza Patrick Ciurria 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal
46' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lucas Beltrán
46' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
51' Fiorentina Dodô 0.03 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Andrea Colpani
52' Fiorentina Lucas Beltrán 0.44 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
57' Fiorentina Yacine Adli 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Dodô
59' Fiorentina Robin Gosens 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Amir Richardson
62' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Goal Pedro Pereira
73' Fiorentina Lucas Beltrán 0.76 Right Foot Goal
77' Monza Pedro Pereira 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
79' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro
82' Fiorentina Christian Kouamé 0.02 Open Play Missed Shot Luca Ranieri
83' Monza Warren Bondo 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
84' Monza Milan Djuric 0.26 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Daniel Maldini
91' Fiorentina Jonathan Ikone 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Luca Ranieri

Players

Monza

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Daniel Maldini FW 90 1 0 3 2 0.41 0.29 0.70
Patrick Ciurria AMC 90 1 0 3 0 0.21 0.00 0.08
Pedro Pereira DMR 90 0 1 1 1 0.06 0.30 0.37
Warren Bondo MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.35
Stefano Turati GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Armando Izzo DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andrea Carboni DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alessandro Bianco MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gianluca Caprari AMC 60 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.13 0.00
Pablo Marí DC 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Kevin Martins Sub 42 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.30
Milan Djuric Sub 30 0 0 1 0 0.26 0.00 0.26
Mattia Valoti Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andrea Petagna Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Samuele Vignato Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fiorentina

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Yacine Adli DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.32
Dodô DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.03 0.11
Moise Kean FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.05
David de Gea GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pietro Comuzzo DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.13
Luca Ranieri DC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.14 0.24
Riccardo Sottil AML 76 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.14
Andrea Colpani AMR 70 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.03 0.08
Robin Gosens DL 70 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.19
Amir Richardson DMC 66 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.08 0.08
Albert Gudmundsson AMC 48 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.08 0.13
Lucas Beltrán Sub 42 1 0 2 1 1.20 0.02 0.49
Michael Folorunsho Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Jonathan Ikone Sub 20 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.11
Fabiano Parisi Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Christian Kouamé Sub 14 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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