Monza v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 2 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 13
On target
2 – 7
Shots in box
6 – 11
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.61 – +0.56
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monza win
22.0%
Draw
33.3%
Torino win
44.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monza are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLWLLLLD last 10
scored 7
from 11.3 xG
conceded 22
from 16.1 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.87–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monza 0.61 xGTorino 1.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monza attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Torino |
Che Adams | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eljif Elmas |
| 5' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 17' |
 Monza |
Keita | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Pereira |
| 25' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 26' |
Torino |
Sebastian Walukiewicz | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 29' |
Torino |
Valentino Lazaro | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 37' |
Monza |
Georgios Kyriakopoulos | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Armando Izzo |
| 40' |
Torino |
Eljif Elmas | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Valentino Lazaro |
| 47' |
Torino |
Sebastian Walukiewicz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eljif Elmas |
| 49' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 49' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 52' |
Monza |
Kevin Zeroli | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Silvère Ganvoula |
| 52' |
Monza |
Silvère Ganvoula | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Pereira |
| 52' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 55' |
Monza |
Keita | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Zeroli |
| 55' |
Monza |
Kevin Zeroli | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 70' |
Monza |
Patrick Ciurria | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 75' |
Monza |
Dany Mota | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Georgios Kyriakopoulos |
| 83' |
Monza |
Kacper Urbanski | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedro Pereira |
| 85' |
Torino |
Antonio Sanabria | 0.20 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eljif Elmas AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.43 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Cristiano Biraghi DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.51 |
| Nikola Vlasic AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.66 |
| Samuele Ricci DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cesare Casadei DMC | 80 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Che Adams FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Valentino Lazaro AMR | 69 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.37 |
| Antonio Sanabria Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Yann Karamoh Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gvidas Gineitis Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Karol Linetty Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Monza
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgios Kyriakopoulos DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Tomás Palacios DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Armando Izzo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.28 |
| Alessandro Bianco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pedro Pereira DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| Stefano Turati GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keita FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Kevin Zeroli MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 0.46 |
| Danilo D'Ambrosio DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Silvère Ganvoula FW | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| Samuele Birindelli MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Dany Mota Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kacper Urbanski Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Patrick Ciurria Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Samuele Vignato Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gaetano Castrovilli Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |