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Monza v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 9 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–2
1.92 – 1.40 xG
Shots
27 – 10
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
18 – 10
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-0.93 – +0.60
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.11.62.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Lorenzo Lucca 5' — goalGeorgios Kyriakopoulos 46' — goalJaka Bijol 69' — goal
Monza 1.93 xGUdinese 1.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Warren Bondo 2' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Set Piece)Lorenzo Lucca 5' — Goal (0.55 xG, Open Play)Andrea Carboni 9' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Caprari 13' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Bianco 14' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Bianco 14' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Milan Djuric 15' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Bianco 22' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Milan Djuric 23' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jesper Karlström 24' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Armando Izzo 25' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Lucca 34' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Pedro Pereira 37' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Daniel Maldini 40' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Warren Bondo 42' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Caprari 44' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Bianco 45' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 45' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Caprari 45' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 46' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Georgios Kyriakopoulos 46' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Pedro Pereira 50' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Caprari 51' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Bianco 53' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Milan Djuric 53' — Saved Shot (0.48 xG, Open Play)Florian Thauvin 54' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 56' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jaka Bijol 61' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Set Piece)Lorenzo Lucca 66' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 67' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Jaka Bijol 69' — Goal (0.15 xG, Open Play)Milan Djuric 71' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Dany Mota 78' — Shot On Post (0.27 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Lucca 89' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Dany Mota 93' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Milan Djuric 93' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)James Abankwah 95' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)
Monza attacking right Udinese attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Monza Warren Bondo 0.09 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Pablo Marí
5' Udinese Lorenzo Lucca 0.55 Open Play Goal Jordan Zemura
9' Monza Andrea Carboni 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
13' Monza Gianluca Caprari 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Daniel Maldini
14' Monza Alessandro Bianco 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
14' Monza Alessandro Bianco 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
15' Monza Milan Djuric 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Georgios Kyriakopoulos
22' Monza Alessandro Bianco 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
23' Monza Milan Djuric 0.03 Open Play Saved Shot Georgios Kyriakopoulos
24' Udinese Jesper Karlström 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
25' Monza Armando Izzo 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Daniel Maldini
34' Udinese Lorenzo Lucca 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
37' Monza Pedro Pereira 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Gianluca Caprari
40' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Milan Djuric
42' Monza Warren Bondo 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
44' Monza Gianluca Caprari 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Daniel Maldini
45' Monza Alessandro Bianco 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
45' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
45' Monza Gianluca Caprari 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
46' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alessandro Bianco
46' Monza Georgios Kyriakopoulos 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal
50' Monza Pedro Pereira 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Daniel Maldini
51' Monza Gianluca Caprari 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Armando Izzo
53' Monza Alessandro Bianco 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
53' Monza Milan Djuric 0.48 Open Play Saved Shot Pedro Pereira
54' Udinese Florian Thauvin 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
56' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gianluca Caprari
61' Udinese Jaka Bijol 0.08 Set Piece Missed Shot Sandi Lovric
66' Udinese Lorenzo Lucca 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kingsley Ehizibue
67' Udinese Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
69' Udinese Jaka Bijol 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
71' Monza Milan Djuric 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Samuele Birindelli
78' Monza Dany Mota 0.27 Open Play Shot On Post Georgios Kyriakopoulos
89' Udinese Lorenzo Lucca 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jordan Zemura
93' Monza Dany Mota 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
93' Monza Milan Djuric 0.02 Open Play Blocked Shot Georgios Kyriakopoulos
95' Udinese James Abankwah 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot

Players

Monza

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Milan Djuric FW 90 0 0 5 1 0.70 0.02 0.72
Warren Bondo MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.69
Georgios Kyriakopoulos DML 90 1 0 1 4 0.06 0.40 0.68
Armando Izzo DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.06 0.63
Stefano Turati GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pablo Marí DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.37
Daniel Maldini AMC 85 0 0 4 4 0.17 0.27 1.04
Gianluca Caprari AMC 80 0 0 4 2 0.27 0.09 1.01
Alessandro Bianco MC 80 0 0 5 1 0.09 0.07 1.05
Pedro Pereira DMR 72 0 0 2 1 0.13 0.48 0.72
Andrea Carboni DC 72 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.79
Dany Mota Sub 18 0 0 2 0 0.29 0.00 0.41
Samuele Birindelli Sub 18 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.37
Omari Forson Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stefano Sensi Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mirko Maric Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Udinese

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Lorenzo Lucca FW 90 1 0 4 0 0.81 0.00 0.81
Jaka Bijol DC 90 1 0 2 0 0.23 0.00 0.30
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp ML 90 0 1 1 3 0.10 0.35 1.05
Jesper Karlström MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.12
Razvan Sava GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Lautaro Giannetti DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Kingsley Ehizibue DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.14
Jordan Zemura DL 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.64 0.69
Sandi Lovric MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.81
Florian Thauvin FW 77 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.90
Oier Zarraga MR 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Iker Bravo Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
James Abankwah Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.11
Arthur Atta Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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