Nantes v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 11
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.35 – 0.38
Goals − xG
-0.61 – +0.15
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nantes win
39.1%
Draw
27.5%
Angers win
33.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Angers are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLDLLDDLW last 10
scored 9
from 12.3 xG
conceded 19
from 20.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.21–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.49–0.97 | 1-0 13% | 45% | 48% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nantes 0.61 xGAngers 0.85 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nantes attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Nantes |
Mohamed Kaba | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 8' |
 Angers |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Carlens Arcus |
| 14' |
Angers |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 20' |
Angers |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Carlens Arcus |
| 23' |
Nantes |
Ignatius Ganago | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Angers |
Carlens Arcus | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Nantes |
Johann Lepenant | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 40' |
Nantes |
Johann Lepenant | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 40' |
Nantes |
Louis Leroux | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ali Youssif |
| 43' |
Nantes |
Chidozie Awaziem | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.26 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Jordan Lefort |
| 54' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ousmane Camara |
| 54' |
Nantes |
Fabien Centonze | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Goduine Koyalipou |
| 58' |
Angers |
Branco van den Boomen | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Angers |
Pierrick Capelle | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Angers |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 64' |
Angers |
Jordan Lefort | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 68' |
Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Fabien Centonze |
| 82' |
Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.14 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Nantes |
Mohamed Kaba | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Johann Lepenant |
Players
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine Sbaï FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.09 | 0.38 |
| Goduine Koyalipou FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.07 | 0.47 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| Carlens Arcus DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| Branco van den Boomen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.37 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jacques Ekomie DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Haris Belkebla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Pierrick Capelle Sub | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emmanuel Biumla DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Lilian Raolisoa Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Yassin Belkhdim MC | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdoulaye Bamba Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Louis Mouton Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lanroy Machine Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johann Lepenant MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Mohamed Kaba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Matthis Abline FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Nicolas Cozza DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ali Youssif DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabien Centonze DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Ignatius Ganago FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Louis Leroux MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Deiver Machado DL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Francis Coquelin Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mostafa Mohamed Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Frederic Guilbert Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Rémy Cabella Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |