Nantes v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 6 December 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 21
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
5 – 17
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
1.50 – 1.29
Goals − xG
-0.67 – -1.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nantes win
21.5%
Draw
23.6%
Lens win
54.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDDWLWWLL last 10
scored 18
from 24.1 xG
conceded 16
from 13.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.83–1.53 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.42–1.83 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 64% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nantes 1.67 xGLens 3.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nantes attacking right
Lens attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 5' |
Lens |
Malang Sarr | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Andrija Bulatovic |
| 5' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.13 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Ganiou |
| 17' |
Lens |
Ruben Aguilar | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Odsonne Edouard |
| 25' |
Lens |
Samson Baidoo | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
 Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ruben Aguilar |
| 37' |
Nantes |
Youssef El-Arabi | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 37' |
Nantes |
Youssef El-Arabi | 0.65 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 42' |
Lens |
Andrija Bulatovic | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 45' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Lens |
Samson Baidoo | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Nantes |
Bahmed Deuff | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Johann Lepenant |
| 55' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Cozza |
| 58' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 63' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 73' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chidozie Awaziem |
| 75' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rayan Fofana |
| 76' |
Lens |
Pierre Ganiou | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 80' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Matthieu Udol |
| 84' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rayan Fofana |
| 88' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Nantes |
Amady Camara | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Johann Lepenant |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Said AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 1.37 |
| Samson Baidoo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.03 | 1.42 |
| Andrija Bulatovic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.49 | 1.12 |
| Mamadou Sangaré MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Pierre Ganiou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1.37 |
| Ruben Aguilar DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.25 | 0.81 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matthieu Udol DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 1.14 | 1.28 |
| Odsonne Edouard FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.08 | 0.41 |
| Rayan Fofana Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthis Abline FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kelvin Adou DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kwon Hyeok-Kyu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Cozza DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Tylel Tati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Johann Lepenant MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Bahmed Deuff MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Youssef El-Arabi FW | 63 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.41 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mayckel Lahdo Sub | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Bahereba Guirassy FWL | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mostafa Mohamed Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Amady Camara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Fabien Centonze Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |