Nantes v Lorient — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 7
On target
1 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.08 – +0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nantes win
45.9%
Draw
23.2%
Lorient win
30.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Lorient are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWLDWLDLW last 10
scored 13
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.52–1.19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.46–1.45 | 1-1 12% | 56% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nantes 0.92 xGLorient 0.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nantes attacking right
Lorient attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Lorient |
Aiyegun Tosin | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sambou Soumano |
| 6' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dermane Karim |
| 19' |
Lorient |
Dermane Karim | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Sambou Soumano |
| 21' |
 Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Junior Mwanga |
| 24' |
Nantes |
Junior Mwanga | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Nantes |
Mayckel Lahdo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Junior Mwanga |
| 45' |
Nantes |
Chidozie Awaziem | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 54' |
Nantes |
Kwon Hyeok-Kyu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mayckel Lahdo |
| 62' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Théo Le Bris |
| 62' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 69' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Johann Lepenant |
| 71' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 77' |
Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Chidozie Awaziem |
| 84' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Amady Camara |
| 87' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Théo Le Bris |
| 90' |
Nantes |
Chidozie Awaziem | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
Players
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthis Abline FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Junior Mwanga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Kelvin Adou DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Cozza DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Tylel Tati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mayckel Lahdo FWR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Kwon Hyeok-Kyu MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Youssef El-Arabi FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mostafa Mohamed Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Johann Lepenant Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Bahereba Guirassy Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amady Camara Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Arthur Avom MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Darline Yongwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Théo Le Bris DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| Sambou Soumano FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| Dermane Karim AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Aiyegun Tosin AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Pablo Pagis Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mohamed Bamba Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathaniel Adjei Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |