Nantes v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 29 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 19
On target
5 – 9
Shots in box
12 – 18
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.72
Goals − xG
+0.84 – +0.56
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nantes win
28.0%
Draw
22.1%
Monaco win
49.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.12–1.60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.19–2.25 | 1-2 10% | 67% | 62% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nantes 2.16 xGMonaco 4.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nantes attacking right
Monaco attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dehmaine Assoumani |
| 5' |
 Monaco |
Mamadou Coulibaly | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 5' |
Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Louis Leroux |
| 9' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mamadou Coulibaly |
| 9' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Krépin Diatta |
| 13' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 16' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.56 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 17' |
Nantes |
Youssef El-Arabi | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 18' |
Nantes |
Bahereba Guirassy | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Matthis Abline |
| 26' |
Monaco |
Krépin Diatta | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Mohammed Salisu |
| 35' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Nantes |
Bahereba Guirassy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Junior Mwanga |
| 40' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mamadou Coulibaly |
| 46' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Takumi Minamino |
| 47' |
Monaco |
Mamadou Coulibaly | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 49' |
Nantes |
Kelvin Adou | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chidozie Awaziem |
| 50' |
Nantes |
Bahereba Guirassy | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 50' |
Nantes |
Youssef El-Arabi | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 54' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kassoum Ouattara |
| 61' |
Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kassoum Ouattara |
| 74' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kassoum Ouattara |
| 76' |
Nantes |
Louis Leroux | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 78' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Louis Leroux |
| 79' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 82' |
Nantes |
Bahmed Deuff | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nicolas Cozza |
| 89' |
Monaco |
Pape Cabral | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 90' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Coulibaly |
| 90' |
Nantes |
Fabien Centonze | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Louis Leroux |
| 92' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Louis Leroux |
| 93' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Anssumane Fati |
| 93' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.75 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 95' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 96' |
Nantes |
Bahmed Deuff | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amady Camara |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamadou Coulibaly MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.77 | 0.53 | 1.79 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Krépin Diatta MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.82 |
| Mohammed Salisu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| Philipp Köhn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kassoum Ouattara ML | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.90 |
| Jordan Teze DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| Maghnes Akliouche FW | 88 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.27 | 1.07 | 2.06 |
| Folarin Balogun FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| Takumi Minamino MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.62 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Aleksandr Golovin Sub | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.57 | 0.00 | 1.65 |
| Pape Cabral Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Anssumane Fati Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.43 | 0.51 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthis Abline FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.10 | 1.29 | 1.08 |
| Kelvin Adou DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Louis Leroux DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.51 |
| Junior Mwanga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Tylel Tati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| Bahereba Guirassy FWR | 78 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Youssef El-Arabi FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Kwon Hyeok-Kyu MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Bahmed Deuff Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Nicolas Cozza Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| Mostafa Mohamed Sub | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Amady Camara Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Fabien Centonze Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |