Napoli v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 6
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 3
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-1.01 – +0.55
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Napoli win
35.4%
Draw
31.8%
Internazionale win
32.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 15
from 13.2 xG
conceded 8
from 10.4 xG
Internazionale are finishing sharply above their chances — 7.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWDWWDDWW last 10
scored 28
from 20.5 xG
conceded 12
from 12.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Napoli 2.01 xGInternazionale 0.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Napoli attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19' |
 Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Denzel Dumfries |
| 21' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 27' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
 Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Scott McTominay |
| 31' |
Napoli |
Leonardo Spinazzola | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Stanislav Lobotka |
| 33' |
Napoli |
Romelu Lukaku | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Billy Gilmour |
| 35' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matteo Politano |
| 37' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 40' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 44' |
Napoli |
Romelu Lukaku | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 45' |
Napoli |
Billy Gilmour | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Napoli |
Billy Gilmour | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Thuram |
| 53' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovanni Di Lorenzo |
| 56' |
Napoli |
Stanislav Lobotka | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Romelu Lukaku |
| 64' |
Napoli |
Billy Gilmour | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 64' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovanni Di Lorenzo |
| 74' |
Napoli |
Leonardo Spinazzola | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Napoli |
Philip Billing | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Stanislav Lobotka |
| 86' |
Napoli |
Philip Billing | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 94' |
Napoli |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Denzel Dumfries DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Francesco Acerbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josep Martínez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Marcus Thuram FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.33 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 55 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 0.36 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 55 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Piotr Zielinski Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benjamin Pavard Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joaquín Correa Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan de Vrij Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romelu Lukaku FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.45 |
| Scott McTominay MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.91 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| Amir Rrahmani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Alex Meret GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| Matteo Politano FWR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Billy Gilmour MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.41 |
| Giacomo Raspadori FWL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.16 | 0.51 |
| Noah Okafor Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philip Billing Sub | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Cyril Ngonge Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mathías Olivera Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |