Napoli v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 9
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.22
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.87
Goals − xG
+1.48 – +0.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Napoli win
42.7%
Draw
29.9%
Roma win
27.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.17–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.42–1.06 | 1-1 13% | 45% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Napoli 0.52 xGRoma 1.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Napoli attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bryan Zaragoza |
| 14' |
 Napoli |
Antonio Vergara | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Napoli |
Stanislav Lobotka | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 23' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sam Beukema |
| 29' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley |
| 34' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 39' |
Napoli |
Leonardo Spinazzola | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Eljif Elmas |
| 46' |
Napoli |
Leonardo Spinazzola | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Roma |
Gianluca Mancini | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 64' |
Napoli |
Miguel Gutiérrez | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 70' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 75' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mathías Olivera |
| 80' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Venturino | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Giovane |
| 86' |
Roma |
Robinio Vaz | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Venturino |
| 87' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alisson Santos |
| 88' |
Napoli |
Billy Gilmour | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovane |
| 92' |
Roma |
Robinio Vaz | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 93' |
Napoli |
Miguel Gutiérrez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alisson Santos |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.83 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Daniele Ghilardi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Donyell Malen FW | 75 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.51 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Wesley DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Niccolò Pisilli MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| Bryan Zaragoza AMC | 48 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lorenzo Venturino Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| Neil El Aynaoui Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Robinio Vaz Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Sam Beukema DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Matteo Politano AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Antonio Vergara AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Eljif Elmas MC | 81 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DML | 72 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Amir Rrahmani DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alisson Santos Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Mathías Olivera Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Billy Gilmour Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Giovane Sub | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |