Napoli v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 6 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 7
On target
9 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.03 – 0.54
Goals − xG
-0.32 – +0.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Napoli win
64.2%
Draw
21.8%
Torino win
14.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 15
from 13.2 xG
conceded 8
from 10.4 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.93–0.78 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.84–0.83 | 1-0 13% | 50% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Napoli 2.32 xGTorino 0.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Napoli attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rasmus Højlund |
| 6' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 6' |
Napoli |
Mathías Olivera | 0.62 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giovanni Simeone |
| 15' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 16' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 24' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Vergara |
| 31' |
Torino |
Rafael Obrador | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matteo Prati |
| 34' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matteo Politano |
| 45' |
Napoli |
Eljif Elmas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 52' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 59' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rasmus Højlund |
| 64' |
Napoli |
Alessandro Buongiorno | 0.32 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Matteo Politano |
| 67' |
Napoli |
Eljif Elmas | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Matteo Politano |
| 71' |
Napoli |
Billy Gilmour | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rasmus Højlund |
| 81' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
Torino |
Faustino Anjorin | 0.39 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 85' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Goal | Che Adams |
| 94' |
Napoli |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Vlasic AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Valentino Lazaro MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.00 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enzo Ebosse DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Prati MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Duván Zapata FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Rafael Obrador ML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Che Adams Sub | 33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Pedersen Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cesare Casadei Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandro Kulenovic Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Faustino Anjorin Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathías Olivera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Eljif Elmas MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Billy Gilmour MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Juan Jesus DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.68 | 0.11 | 1.17 |
| Matteo Politano DMR | 84 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.09 | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| Alisson Santos AMC | 79 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DML | 69 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1.03 |
| Antonio Vergara AMC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Franck Zambo Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kevin De Bruyne Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romelu Lukaku Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |