Newcastle United v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 October 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 12
On target
7 – 5
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.72 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-0.83 – -0.91
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
50.2%
Draw
26.4%
Fulham win
23.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–0.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.76–1.08 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 2.83 xGFulham 1.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Fulham attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
 Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.64 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 4' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 5' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 12' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.20 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Sessegnon |
| 16' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 20' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 26' |
Fulham |
Adama Traoré | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Fulham |
Sander Berge | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 32' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 32' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 38' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 39' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 41' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sander Berge |
| 45' |
Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.73 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 62' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.42 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 64' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin |
| 66' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin |
| 74' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joelinton |
| 79' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Elanga | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 79' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 83' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 85' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joelinton |
| 87' |
Newcastle United |
Malick Thiaw | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 89' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 89' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 96' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Alex Iwobi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.25 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Issa Diop DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Ryan Sessegnon DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| Kenny Tete DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.73 | 0.11 | 0.80 |
| Adama Traoré AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Kevin Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.70 |
| Joshua King Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Timothy Castagne Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonah Kusi-Asare Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1.09 | 0.13 | 1.80 |
| Joelinton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.68 |
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.68 |
| Dan Burn DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nick Woltemade FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.03 | 0.50 |
| Anthony Gordon FWL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.91 | 0.98 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 62 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Lewis Miley MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Sven Botman DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandro Tonali Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Fabian Schär Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Anthony Elanga Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.33 |
| William Osula Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |