Newcastle United v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 4 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 14
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
1.41 – 0.59
Goals − xG
+0.03 – -0.83
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
42.2%
Draw
27.8%
Manchester United win
30.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Manchester United are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWWWDWWLW last 10
scored 20
from 21.8 xG
conceded 13
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.65–1.37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.67–1.49 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 1.97 xGManchester United 1.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 8' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 12' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Elanga | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 19' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 40' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 41' |
Manchester United |
Kobbie Mainoo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 44' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 47' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 52' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 53' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.36 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Bruno Fernandes |
| 65' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.48 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 69' |
Manchester United |
Noussair Mazraoui | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 74' |
Manchester United |
Leny Yoro | 0.23 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 75' |
Manchester United |
Manuel Ugarte | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 78' |
Newcastle United |
Malick Thiaw | 0.17 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 81' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 87' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Zirkzee |
| 87' |
Manchester United |
Manuel Ugarte | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 88' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 89' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kieran Trippier |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Gordon FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.27 | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Anthony Elanga FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Joelinton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.68 | 0.26 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Aaron Ramsdale GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Harvey Barnes FWL | 55 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jacob Ramsey MC | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Joe Willock Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| William Osula Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jacob Murphy Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sven Botman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leny Yoro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Matheus Cunha AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0.04 | 1.07 | 0.64 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.70 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Casemiro DMC | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Luke Shaw DL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Ugarte Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Diogo Dalot Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Amad Diallo Traore Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Tyrell Malacia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |