Newcastle United v Sunderland — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 17
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 11
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 1.02
Goals − xG
-0.27 – -0.80
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
49.7%
Draw
29.2%
Sunderland win
21.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.60–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.91–0.92 | 1-0 11% | 54% | 51% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 1.27 xGSunderland 2.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Sunderland attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Newcastle United |
Anthony Elanga | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 8' |
Newcastle United |
Sven Botman | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 9' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nick Woltemade |
| 11' |
 Sunderland |
Granit Xhaka | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Ramsey | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 23' |
Sunderland |
Chris Rigg | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Sunderland |
Chris Rigg | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Elanga | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 39' |
Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Rigg |
| 41' |
Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sven Botman |
| 42' |
Newcastle United |
Sven Botman | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Lewis Hall |
| 46' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Sunderland |
Chris Rigg | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chemsdine Talbi |
| 56' |
Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.65 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 56' |
Sunderland |
Habib Diarra | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Sunderland |
Granit Xhaka | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brian Brobbey |
| 65' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Newcastle United |
Valentino Livramento | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 68' |
Sunderland |
Noah Sadiki | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 71' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Rigg |
| 78' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 79' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joe Willock |
| 81' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Rigg |
| 83' |
Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omar Alderete |
| 83' |
Sunderland |
Habib Diarra | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brian Brobbey |
| 84' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joe Willock |
| 89' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 89' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.67 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 94' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Gordon FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.03 | 0.51 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| Joelinton DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Jacob Ramsey DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Aaron Ramsdale GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harvey Barnes AML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Nick Woltemade AMC | 67 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| Anthony Elanga AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| Sven Botman DC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| Malick Thiaw Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Murphy Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Valentino Livramento Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Joe Willock Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| William Osula Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Yoane Wissa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Brobbey FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.36 | 0.06 | 1.52 |
| Chemsdine Talbi ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.07 | 0.32 |
| Chris Rigg MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| Trai Hume DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Noah Sadiki MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Granit Xhaka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.79 |
| Melker Ellborg GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Luke O'Nien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Habib Diarra MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Enzo Le Fée Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Eliezer Mayenda Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reinildo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |