Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 2 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 8
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
13 – 7
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.85 – 0.08
Goals − xG
+0.11 – +0.95
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
54.6%
Draw
22.4%
Tottenham Hotspur win
23.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.91–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.22–1.24 | 2-1 10% | 67% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 1.89 xGTottenham Hotspur 1.05 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 8' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Miley | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 12' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 16' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Miley | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 30' |
Newcastle United |
Malick Thiaw | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 34' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 35' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 36' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Lucas Bergvall | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 37' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 41' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Lucas Bergvall | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pape Sarr |
| 44' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Miley |
| 47' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joelinton |
| 47' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Valentino Livramento |
| 47' |
Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 63' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 63' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Newcastle United |
Valentino Livramento | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nick Woltemade |
| 74' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Miley | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Cristian Romero | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Goal | Mohammed Kudus |
| 80' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 85' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 93' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cristian Romero |
| 94' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Cristian Romero | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Miley MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.03 | 0.44 |
| Nick Woltemade FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.39 |
| Joelinton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Valentino Livramento DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.43 |
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Aaron Ramsdale GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.42 |
| Harvey Barnes FWL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0.41 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Bruno Guimarães Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Anthony Gordon Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Anthony Elanga Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Fabian Schär Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.06 | 0.45 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Kevin Danso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mohammed Kudus AMR | 89 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.78 | 0.91 |
| Pape Sarr DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Lucas Bergvall AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Brennan Johnson AML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Randal Kolo Muani FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Xavi Simons Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Mathys Tel Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Richarlison Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Wilson Odobert Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Archie Gray Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |