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Newcastle United v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 2 March 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Shots
14 – 12
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.42 – -0.51
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.01.92.93.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Alexander Isak 13' — goalAnthony Gordon 32' — goalValentino Livramento 91' — goal
Newcastle United 3.42 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Pablo Sarabia 5' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Alexander Isak 13' — Goal (0.82 xG, Open Play)Bruno Guimarães 13' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Pablo Sarabia 16' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dan Burn 18' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Craig Dawson 21' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Jean-Ricner Bellegarde 21' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Toti 21' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Alexander Isak 23' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Kieran Trippier 23' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Jacob Murphy 28' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Anthony Gordon 32' — Goal (0.54 xG, Open Play)Jacob Murphy 34' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Joe Willock 55' — Blocked Shot (0.53 xG, Open Play)Dan Burn 56' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Jean-Ricner Bellegarde 63' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Nathan Fraser 65' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Pablo Sarabia 67' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jean-Ricner Bellegarde 72' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Miguel Almirón 78' — Saved Shot (0.48 xG, Open Play)Bruno Guimarães 80' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Harvey Barnes 80' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Tawanda Chirewa 83' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Max Kilman 85' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Pablo Sarabia 88' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Valentino Livramento 91' — Goal (0.55 xG, Open Play)
Newcastle United attacking right Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Rayan Ait Nouri
13' Newcastle United Alexander Isak 0.82 Open Play Goal
13' Newcastle United Bruno Guimarães 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Anthony Gordon
16' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Nélson Semedo
18' Newcastle United Dan Burn 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Anthony Gordon
21' Wolverhampton Wanderers Craig Dawson 0.02 From Corner Missed Shot Pablo Sarabia
21' Wolverhampton Wanderers Jean-Ricner Bellegarde 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Craig Dawson
21' Wolverhampton Wanderers Toti 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
23' Newcastle United Alexander Isak 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Joe Willock
23' Newcastle United Kieran Trippier 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
28' Newcastle United Jacob Murphy 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Bruno Guimarães
32' Newcastle United Anthony Gordon 0.54 Open Play Right Foot Goal
34' Newcastle United Jacob Murphy 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Joe Willock
55' Newcastle United Joe Willock 0.53 Open Play Blocked Shot Dan Burn
56' Newcastle United Dan Burn 0.07 From Corner Missed Shot Bruno Guimarães
63' Wolverhampton Wanderers Jean-Ricner Bellegarde 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Rayan Ait Nouri
65' Wolverhampton Wanderers Nathan Fraser 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mario Lemina
67' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
72' Wolverhampton Wanderers Jean-Ricner Bellegarde 0.05 Open Play Saved Shot
78' Newcastle United Miguel Almirón 0.48 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Bruno Guimarães
80' Newcastle United Bruno Guimarães 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
80' Newcastle United Harvey Barnes 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Anthony Gordon
83' Wolverhampton Wanderers Tawanda Chirewa 0.06 Open Play Missed Shot Nélson Semedo
85' Wolverhampton Wanderers Max Kilman 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
88' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Tawanda Chirewa
91' Newcastle United Valentino Livramento 0.55 Open Play Right Foot Goal Fabian Schär

Players

Newcastle United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Anthony Gordon FWL 90 1 0 1 3 0.54 0.25 1.83
Dan Burn DL 90 0 0 2 1 0.17 0.53 1.69
Bruno Guimarães MC 90 0 0 2 3 0.12 0.58 1.27
Martin Dubravka GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.55
Sean Longstaff MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.48
Sven Botman DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.07
Fabian Schär DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.55 1.66
Alexander Isak FW 73 1 0 2 0 0.86 0.00 0.86
Joe Willock MC 73 0 0 1 2 0.53 0.06 0.57
Jacob Murphy FWR 73 0 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.04
Kieran Trippier DR 55 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.04
Valentino Livramento Sub 35 1 0 1 0 0.55 0.00 1.03
Miguel Almirón Sub 17 0 0 1 0 0.48 0.00 0.48
Harvey Barnes Sub 17 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.52
Lewis Miley Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.48
Elliot Anderson Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Wolverhampton Wanderers

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Pablo Sarabia AMC 90 0 0 4 1 0.12 0.02 0.25
Max Kilman DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.24
Craig Dawson DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.04 0.02
Tommy Doyle MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.20
Nélson Semedo DMR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.08 0.13
Rayan Ait Nouri DML 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.13 0.26
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde AMC 84 0 0 3 2 0.18 0.09 0.19
Mario Lemina MC 84 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.08
Toti DC 63 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
José Sá GK 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedro Neto FW 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Nathan Fraser Sub 41 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.16
Daniel Bentley Sub 41 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hugo Bueno Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Tawanda Chirewa Sub 6 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.02 0.08
Boubacar Traore Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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