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Nice v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 8 February 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

2–0
3.37 – 1.02 xG
Shots
16 – 12
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.90 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-1.37 – -1.09
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.92.83.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Gaetan Laborde 9' — goalJonathan Clauss 63' — goal
Nice 3.37 xGLens 1.09 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Gaetan Laborde 9' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Mohamed Ali-Cho 15' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Facundo Medina 18' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)M'Bala Nzola 20' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Clauss 22' — Saved Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Hichem Boudaoui 23' — Missed Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Mohamed Ali-Cho 37' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Andy Diouf 38' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Neil El Aynaoui 40' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Baptiste Santamaria 43' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Deiver Machado 45' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Facundo Medina 45' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)M'Bala Nzola 46' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Hichem Boudaoui 49' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Clauss 50' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Jeremy Agbonifo 53' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Evann Guessand 54' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Gaetan Laborde 58' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Hichem Boudaoui 59' — Blocked Shot (0.48 xG, Open Play)Andy Diouf 60' — Missed Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Clauss 63' — Goal (0.04 xG, From Corner)Mohamed Ali-Cho 63' — Missed Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)M'Bala Nzola 72' — Saved Shot (0.48 xG, Open Play)M'Bala Nzola 73' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Melvin Bard 76' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Evann Guessand 78' — Saved Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Dante 80' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Hamzat Ojediran 93' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)
Nice attacking right Lens attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
9' Nice Gaetan Laborde 0.76 Left Foot Goal
15' Nice Mohamed Ali-Cho 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Evann Guessand
18' Lens Facundo Medina 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
20' Lens M'Bala Nzola 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Goduine Koyalipou
22' Nice Jonathan Clauss 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Melvin Bard
23' Nice Hichem Boudaoui 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Evann Guessand
37' Nice Mohamed Ali-Cho 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Melvin Bard
38' Lens Andy Diouf 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Adrien Thomasson
40' Lens Neil El Aynaoui 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Malang Sarr
43' Nice Baptiste Santamaria 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Jonathan Clauss
45' Lens Deiver Machado 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Adrien Thomasson
45' Lens Facundo Medina 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
46' Lens M'Bala Nzola 0.10 Open Play Missed Shot Anass Zaroury
49' Nice Hichem Boudaoui 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Melvin Bard
50' Nice Jonathan Clauss 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
53' Lens Jeremy Agbonifo 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Florian Sotoca
54' Nice Evann Guessand 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Mohamed Ali-Cho
58' Nice Gaetan Laborde 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Baptiste Santamaria
59' Nice Hichem Boudaoui 0.48 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gaetan Laborde
60' Lens Andy Diouf 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Neil El Aynaoui
63' Nice Jonathan Clauss 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Goal Mohamed Ali-Cho
63' Nice Mohamed Ali-Cho 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Evann Guessand
72' Lens M'Bala Nzola 0.48 Open Play Saved Shot Andy Diouf
73' Lens M'Bala Nzola 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
76' Nice Melvin Bard 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Evann Guessand
78' Nice Evann Guessand 0.42 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Sofiane Diop
80' Nice Dante 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Youssouf Ndayishimiye
93' Lens Hamzat Ojediran 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Deiver Machado

Players

Lens

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Neil El Aynaoui MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.14 0.26
Deiver Machado DL 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.01 0.16
Jonathan Gradit DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.60
Kouakou Herve Koffi GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Malang Sarr DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.63
Florian Sotoca DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.54
M'Bala Nzola FW 85 0 0 4 0 0.78 0.00 0.78
Andy Diouf MC 85 0 0 2 1 0.20 0.48 0.70
Facundo Medina DC 60 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.13
Adrien Thomasson MC 49 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.07 0.08
Goduine Koyalipou FW 49 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Jeremy Agbonifo Sub 41 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.51
Anass Zaroury Sub 41 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.14
Hamzat Ojediran Sub 5 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Wesley Said Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01

Nice

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Hichem Boudaoui MC 90 0 0 3 0 0.98 0.00 1.96
Gaetan Laborde FW 90 1 0 2 1 0.83 0.48 0.77
Evann Guessand AMC 90 0 0 2 4 0.53 0.85 1.94
Melvin Bard DML 90 0 0 1 3 0.07 0.53 2.00
Baptiste Santamaria MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.07 1.42
Dante DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 1.42
Moïse Bombito DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.34
Marcin Bulka GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.49
Youssouf Ndayishimiye DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 1.06
Jonathan Clauss DMR 78 1 0 3 1 0.44 0.05 0.81
Mohamed Ali-Cho AMC 71 0 1 3 2 0.46 0.15 1.23
Sofiane Diop Sub 19 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.42 0.44
Tom Louchet Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Jeremie Boga Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mohamed Abdelmonem Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ali Abdi Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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