Nice v Lorient — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 August 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 10
On target
1 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.51
Goals − xG
-1.09 – -2.07
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nice win
31.6%
Draw
27.4%
Lorient win
41.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDLDDLD last 10
scored 6
from 11.6 xG
conceded 12
from 17.5 xG
Lorient are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWLDWLDLW last 10
scored 13
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–1.44 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nice 1.09 xGLorient 2.07 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nice attacking right
Lorient attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 14' |
Nice |
Gauthier Hein | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 14' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Xavier Mandza |
| 19' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 20' |
 Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Lorient |
Gabin Bernardeau | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 24' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.51 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gabin Bernardeau |
| 29' |
Nice |
Zoumana Diallo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 31' |
Nice |
Antoine Mendy | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 52' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Noah Cadiou |
| 60' |
Lorient |
Mamadou Koné | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Lorient |
Théo Le Bris | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mamadou Koné |
| 61' |
Nice |
Antoine Mendy | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Xavier Mandza |
| 65' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 65' |
Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Melvin Bard |
| 68' |
Nice |
Melvin Bard | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alec Georgen |
| 79' |
Lorient |
Souleymane Faye | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Panos Katseris |
| 82' |
Nice |
Nathan N'Goumou Minpol | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Djibril Coulibaly |
| 83' |
Nice |
Hamza Koutoune | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Lorient |
Aiyegun Tosin | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Arthur Avom |
Players
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Gauthier Hein AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Melvin Bard DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssouf Ndayishimiye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Everton Pereira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Djibril Coulibaly MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Xavier Mandza DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.53 |
| Jonathan Clauss DMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.09 | 0.35 |
| Sofiane Diop AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.26 | 0.62 |
| Zoumana Diallo FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Nathan N'Goumou Minpol Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Hamza Koutoune Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Abdelmonem Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| Nathaniel Adjei DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Avom MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.73 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Théo Le Bris DMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Dembo Sylla DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mamadou Koné FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| Gabin Bernardeau AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| Souleymane Faye Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Aiyegun Tosin Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Alec Georgen Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.61 |
| Panos Katseris Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.57 |