Nice v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 10
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 8
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.46 – -0.83
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nice win
44.9%
Draw
21.2%
Monaco win
33.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDLDDLD last 10
scored 6
from 11.6 xG
conceded 12
from 17.5 xG
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.62–1.37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.71–1.72 | 1-1 10% | 67% | 67% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nice 0.46 xGMonaco 0.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nice attacking right
Monaco attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Lamine Camara |
| 9' |
 Nice |
Dante | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gabin Bernardeau |
| 15' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 30' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 31' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Simon Adingra |
| 32' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Louchet |
| 35' |
Monaco |
Jordan Teze | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thilo Kehrer |
| 38' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sepe Elye Wahi |
| 40' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 46' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Nice |
Morgan Sanson | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sepe Elye Wahi |
| 53' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thilo Kehrer |
| 54' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Nice |
Gabin Bernardeau | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Sanson |
| 66' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 68' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 70' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Sanson |
| 71' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Nice |
Kail Boudache | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 78' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 81' |
Nice |
Kail Boudache | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 85' |
Monaco |
Mamadou Coulibaly | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Denis Zakaria DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Jordan Teze DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Philipp Köhn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.50 |
| Maghnes Akliouche AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.55 |
| Lamine Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| Krépin Diatta DMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Simon Adingra DML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.52 |
| Aladji Bamba MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Aleksandr Golovin AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Caio Henrique Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Vanderson Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sepe Elye Wahi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| Dante DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jonathan Clauss DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Ali Abdi DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kojo Peprah Oppong DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charles Vanhoutte DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Maxime Dupé GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sofiane Diop AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| Morgan Sanson DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Tom Louchet AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Gabin Bernardeau AMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| Kail Boudache Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tanguy NDombele Alvaro Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juma Bah Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isak Jansson Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Everton Pereira Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |