Nice v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 8
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
1.01 – 0.79
Goals − xG
-1.54 – -0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nice win
38.9%
Draw
23.1%
Strasbourg win
38.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDDLDDL last 10
scored 5
from 10.6 xG
conceded 15
from 20.4 xG
Strasbourg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWLWLDWWLW last 10
scored 20
from 16.6 xG
conceded 21
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.42–1.40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.89–1.37 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nice 2.54 xGStrasbourg 1.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nice attacking right
Strasbourg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tanguy NDombele Alvaro |
| 12' |
 Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 14' |
Nice |
Everton Pereira da Silva | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Nice |
Tiago Gouveia | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
Nice |
Tiago Gouveia | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Nice |
Tanguy NDombele Alvaro | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.59 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Tiago Gouveia |
| 23' |
Nice |
Tiago Gouveia | 0.12 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 26' |
Strasbourg |
Diego Moreira | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Nice |
Morgan Sanson | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joaquín Panichelli |
| 51' |
Strasbourg |
Samir El Mourabet | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Melvin Bard |
| 57' |
Nice |
Morgan Sanson | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 57' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tanguy NDombele Alvaro |
| 60' |
Strasbourg |
Lucas Høgsberg | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ismaël Doukouré |
| 63' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Joaquín Panichelli |
| 65' |
Nice |
Juma Bah | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 69' |
Nice |
Tanguy NDombele Alvaro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Sanson |
| 71' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Melvin Bard |
| 75' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 76' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Diego Moreira |
| 82' |
Nice |
Bernard Nguene | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Zoumana Diallo |
| 83' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 89' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofiane Diop ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| Jonathan Clauss DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.24 | 0.10 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Melvin Bard DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| Kojo Peprah Oppong DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Maxime Dupé GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Morgan Sanson MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.04 | 0.56 |
| Tanguy NDombele Alvaro MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Everton Pereira da Silva DMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tiago Gouveia MR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.59 | 0.06 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Salis Abdul Samed Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bernard Nguene Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Zoumana Diallo Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| Diego Moreira AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Valentín Barco DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Ben Chilwell DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.39 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Samir El Mourabet DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Julio Enciso AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Martial Godo AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Kendry Páez Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathis Amougou Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abakar Sylla Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |