Norwich City v Southampton — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 14 October 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:03

Norwich City

14:45

Southampton

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 932h before kick-off

Norwich City win

31.6%

model 32.2%

Draw

27.3%

model 26.3%

Southampton win

41.1%

model 41.6%

322741

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.1%
1-2 8.9%
2-1 7.8%
2-2 6.4%
0-1 6.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.8%	Under 2.5	40.2%
BTTS yes	63.0%	BTTS no	37.0%
Norwich City 1+	76.3%	Norwich City 2+	42.2%
Southampton 1+	80.9%	Southampton 2+	49.3%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.66. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

44/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Southampton carry the stronger rating, 1614 Elo against 1475.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Southampton have an estimated 41.1% win probability, against 31.6% for Norwich City and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.44 for Norwich City and 1.66 for Southampton.

Why Norwich City

Nothing in the data singles out Norwich City.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.44 to 1.66. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Southampton can win

Southampton carry the stronger rating, 1614 Elo against 1475. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Southampton's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mateus Fernandes (0.20), Paul Onuachu (0.20), Cameron Archer (0.17).

Availability

No lineup on record for Norwich City, so availability is unknown. 2 of Southampton's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Norwich City: 55% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Southampton: 60% possession, 17.6 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Norwich City's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Southampton are the model's most likely outcome at 41.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 44/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLDLLDLL last 10 scored 6 from 7.4 xG conceded 18 from 18.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	302644	1.35–1.67	1-1 12%	58%	61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win	43.7%	43.0%	29.0%	1.48×	2.32
Norwich City to win	29.8%	27.9%	43.5%	0.64×	3.59
Draw	26.5%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton & both teams score	23.9%	21.9%	13.8%	1.58×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	20.3%	21.9%	20.4%	1.07×	4.57
Southampton & not both score	19.7%	17.9%	15.3%	1.17×	5.58
Norwich City & both teams score	17.1%	17.9%	20.2%	0.89×	5.58
Norwich City & not both score	12.7%	13.3%	23.4%	0.57×	7.54
Draw & not both score	6.2%	8.4%	7.3%	1.15×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton & over 1.5	36.8%	34.9%	21.4%	1.63×	2.87
Southampton & over 2.5	30.0%	30.9%	16.2%	1.91×	3.24
Southampton & under 3.5	26.6%	26.0%	22.3%	1.17×	3.84
Norwich City & over 1.5	24.5%	21.7%	32.5%	0.67×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	20.3%	21.7%	20.4%	1.06×	4.62
Norwich City & over 2.5	20.1%	21.6%	26.4%	0.82×	4.62
Norwich City & under 3.5	19.2%	18.0%	32.5%	0.55×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.5%	18.0%	21.6%	0.83×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.5%	18.0%	21.6%	0.83×	5.56
Southampton & over 3.5	17.1%	18.0%	6.8%	2.65×	5.56
Southampton & under 2.5	13.7%	12.9%	13.0%	0.99×	7.77
Norwich City & over 3.5	10.6%	12.9%	11.1%	1.16×	7.77
Norwich City & under 2.5	9.8%	7.9%	17.2%	0.46×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	8.0%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	6.2%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.70
Southampton & under 1.5	6.9%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.70
Norwich City & under 1.5	5.3%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (1UP)	61.3%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Norwich City (1UP)	49.5%	43.4%	—	—	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (2UP)	43.7%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Norwich City (2UP)	29.8%	25.0%	—	—	4.00

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win 2nd half	39.4%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
2nd half drawn	33.8%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Norwich City to win 2nd half	26.8%	26.3%	—	—	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (+2.5)	95.2%	96.3%	91.9%	1.05×	1.04
Southampton (+1.5)	86.3%	88.5%	80.7%	1.10×	1.13
Southampton (+0.5)	70.2%	73.7%	56.5%	1.30×	1.36
Norwich City (+0.5)	56.3%	57.0%	71.0%	0.80×	1.75
Southampton (-0.5)	43.7%	43.0%	29.0%	1.48×	2.33
Norwich City (-0.5)	29.8%	26.3%	43.5%	0.61×	3.80
Norwich City (-1.5)	13.7%	11.5%	19.3%	0.60×	8.69
Norwich City (-2.5)	4.8%	3.7%	8.1%	0.46×	26.76

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to concede	74.1%	76.5%	77.5%	0.99×	1.31
Southampton clean sheet	25.9%	23.5%	22.5%	1.04×	4.25

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton clean sheet in 1st half	56.0%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Southampton to concede in 1st half	44.0%	41.6%	—	—	2.40

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton over 2.5 corners	76.6%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Southampton under 6.5 corners	74.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Southampton under 5.5 corners	63.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Southampton over 3.5 corners	62.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Southampton under 4.5 corners	51.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Southampton over 4.5 corners	48.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Southampton under 3.5 corners	37.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Southampton over 5.5 corners	36.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Southampton over 6.5 corners	25.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Southampton under 2.5 corners	23.4%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton under 3.5 goals	91.2%	92.3%	97.8%	0.94×	1.08
Southampton over 0.5 goals	81.1%	81.4%	69.4%	1.17×	1.23
Southampton under 2.5 goals	76.6%	76.2%	90.6%	0.84×	1.31
Southampton under 1.5 goals	50.4%	53.7%	69.9%	0.77×	1.86
Southampton over 1.5 goals	49.6%	46.4%	30.1%	1.54×	2.16
Southampton over 2.5 goals	23.4%	23.8%	9.5%	2.52×	4.21
Southampton under 0.5 goals	18.9%	18.6%	30.6%	0.61×	5.38
Southampton over 3.5 goals	8.8%	7.7%	2.2%	3.44×	13.02

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton under 1.5 in 1st half	85.6%	88.9%	—	—	1.12
Southampton under 0.5 in 1st half	51.3%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Southampton over 0.5 in 1st half	48.7%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
Southampton over 1.5 in 1st half	14.4%	11.1%	—	—	9.05

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (away no bet)	53.0%	51.2%	61.2%	0.84×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	47.0%	48.8%	38.8%	1.26×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton even goals	51.8%	52.8%	52.6%	1.00×	1.89
Southampton odd goals	48.2%	47.2%	47.4%	1.00×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.3%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.7%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.2%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.8%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.9%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Southampton to score 2+ in a row	40.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Norwich City to score 2+ in a row	29.1%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.0%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Southampton to score 3+ in a row	14.9%	12.2%	—	—	8.17
Norwich City to score 3+ in a row	8.5%	5.7%	—	—	17.60

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City corners (+3.5)	86.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Norwich City corners (+2.5)	80.6%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Norwich City corners (+1.5)	73.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Southampton corners (+3.5)	68.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Southampton corners (+2.5)	60.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Southampton corners (+1.5)	51.7%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Norwich City corners (-1.5)	48.3%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Norwich City corners (-2.5)	39.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Norwich City corners (-3.5)	31.6%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Southampton corners (-1.5)	26.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Southampton corners (-2.5)	19.4%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Southampton corners (-3.5)	13.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	43.1%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
0-8 corners	31.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	25.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	76.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	68.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	64.5%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	60.0%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	56.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	51.4%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	48.6%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	43.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	40.0%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 12.5 corners	35.5%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	31.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	23.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.3%	11.5%	14.4%	0.79×	8.73
1-2	9.2%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.48
0-1	6.9%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.48
0-2	6.8%	7.4%	5.3%	1.39×	13.48
2-1	7.4%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.48
0-0	6.2%	7.4%	7.3%	1.02×	13.48
1-0	5.3%	7.4%	11.1%	0.67×	13.48
1-3	5.1%	7.4%	3.1%	2.40×	13.48
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	5.2%	1.42×	13.48
0-3	3.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.47
0-4	1.6%	1.7%	0.4%	3.98×	58.48
1-4	2.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.84×	58.48
2-0	4.5%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.46
2-3	3.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.47
2-4	1.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.63×	58.48
3-0	2.0%	1.7%	4.0%	0.42×	58.48
3-1	3.3%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.47
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.47
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	58.48
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	6.63×	58.49
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.49
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	58.48
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.21×	58.48
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	9.95×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	19.90×	58.49
Any other score	3.9%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton leading at HT (DNB)	54.6%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Norwich City leading at HT (DNB)	45.4%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City or Southampton (12)	73.5%	72.1%	72.4%	1.00×	1.39
Southampton or draw (X2)	70.2%	72.1%	56.5%	1.28×	1.39
Norwich City or draw (1X)	56.3%	57.0%	71.0%	0.80×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw at HT	73.4%	74.4%	—	—	1.35
Norwich City or draw at HT	68.0%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Norwich City or Southampton at HT	58.6%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw (1UP)	70.2%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Norwich City or draw (1UP)	56.3%	62.6%	—	—	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw in 2nd half	73.2%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Norwich City or Southampton in 2nd half	66.2%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Norwich City or draw in 2nd half	60.6%	63.9%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.8%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	40.2%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (DNB)	59.4%	58.3%	40.0%	1.46×	1.72
Norwich City (DNB)	40.6%	41.7%	60.0%	0.70×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score first	51.8%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
Norwich City to score first	42.0%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	6.2%	7.5%	—	—	13.38

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.4%	56.5%	54.2%	1.04×	1.77
Not both teams to score	38.6%	43.5%	45.8%	0.95×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	49.1%	44.3%	39.9%	1.11×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	29.6%	33.6%	37.3%	0.90×	2.98
Both score & under 2.5	12.3%	12.3%	14.4%	0.85×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	9.0%	8.4%	8.6%	0.97×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	80.6%	83.0%	89.0%	0.93×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	19.4%	17.0%	11.0%	1.54×	5.89

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.6%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.4%	32.5%	—	—	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	51.2%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	27.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Both score 1st half only	14.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.27
Both score in both halves	7.3%	6.8%	—	—	14.74

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.3%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	21.7%	18.5%	—	—	5.41

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.8%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	40.2%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.0%	47.4%	50.4%	0.94×	2.11
4-6 goals	32.2%	30.7%	22.4%	1.37×	3.25
0-1 goals	18.4%	20.2%	25.9%	0.78×	4.95
7+ goals	3.4%	1.8%	1.4%	1.34×	54.45

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score exactly 1	31.5%	33.8%	39.4%	0.86×	2.96
Southampton to score exactly 2	26.2%	27.4%	20.7%	1.32×	3.65
Southampton to score 3+	23.4%	22.4%	9.5%	2.37×	4.46
Southampton to score exactly 0	18.9%	19.6%	30.6%	0.64×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City to score exactly 1	35.0%	32.7%	36.9%	0.88×	3.06
Norwich City to score exactly 0	25.9%	26.5%	22.5%	1.18×	3.77
Norwich City to score exactly 2	23.6%	23.2%	24.6%	0.95×	4.30
Norwich City to score 3+	15.5%	18.9%	16.2%	1.17×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.4%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Southampton leading at HT	32.0%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
Norwich City leading at HT	26.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton -1: 1	56.3%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Southampton -1: 2	23.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Southampton -1: X	20.2%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (0:1)	70.2%	70.9%	56.5%	1.26×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	16.1%	17.8%	24.2%	0.73×	5.63
Norwich City (0:1)	13.7%	13.9%	19.3%	0.72×	7.22

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (0:2)	86.3%	86.9%	80.7%	1.08×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.9%	7.7%	11.3%	0.68×	12.93
Norwich City (0:2)	4.8%	3.8%	8.1%	0.47×	26.47

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (0:3)	95.2%	96.6%	91.9%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.4%	2.4%	4.8%	0.49×	42.11
Norwich City (0:3)	1.4%	2.4%	3.4%	0.71×	42.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (0:4)	98.6%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.4%	0.50×	83.56
Norwich City (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.0%	1.16×	83.65

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (1:0)	56.3%	58.0%	71.0%	0.82×	1.72
Southampton (1:0)	23.5%	21.8%	11.9%	1.84×	4.59
Draw (1:0)	20.2%	21.8%	17.3%	1.26×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (2:0)	76.5%	80.3%	88.1%	0.91×	1.25
Draw (2:0)	13.6%	10.4%	8.7%	1.20×	9.62
Southampton (2:0)	9.9%	6.5%	3.3%	1.98×	15.46

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.6%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	26.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	25.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City to concede	81.1%	80.7%	69.4%	1.16×	1.24
Norwich City clean sheet	18.9%	19.3%	30.6%	0.63×	5.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City clean sheet in 1st half	51.3%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Norwich City to concede in 1st half	48.7%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City over 2.5 corners	86.2%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Norwich City over 3.5 corners	76.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Norwich City over 4.5 corners	64.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Norwich City under 6.5 corners	57.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Norwich City over 5.5 corners	52.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Norwich City under 5.5 corners	47.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Norwich City over 6.5 corners	42.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Norwich City under 4.5 corners	35.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Norwich City under 3.5 corners	24.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Norwich City under 2.5 corners	13.8%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City under 3.5 goals	95.2%	96.4%	94.8%	1.02×	1.04
Norwich City under 2.5 goals	84.5%	82.1%	83.8%	0.98×	1.22
Norwich City over 0.5 goals	74.1%	74.2%	77.5%	0.96×	1.35
Norwich City under 1.5 goals	60.9%	63.5%	59.4%	1.07×	1.58
Norwich City over 1.5 goals	39.1%	36.5%	40.6%	0.90×	2.74
Norwich City under 0.5 goals	25.9%	25.8%	22.5%	1.15×	3.87
Norwich City over 2.5 goals	15.5%	17.9%	16.2%	1.11×	5.59
Norwich City over 3.5 goals	4.8%	3.7%	5.2%	0.71×	27.40

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City under 1.5 in 1st half	88.4%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
Norwich City under 0.5 in 1st half	56.0%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Norwich City over 0.5 in 1st half	44.0%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Norwich City over 1.5 in 1st half	11.6%	10.2%	—	—	9.80

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (home no bet)	62.2%	60.2%	51.3%	1.17×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	37.8%	39.8%	48.7%	0.82×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City even goals	53.4%	50.6%	50.5%	1.00×	1.98
Norwich City odd goals	46.6%	49.4%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.0%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
HT 0-1	18.9%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 1-0	16.5%	18.7%	—	—	5.34
HT 1-1	11.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 0-2	6.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
Any other HT score	5.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 2-0	4.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.25
HT 1-2	3.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.34
HT 2-1	3.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.37
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.53

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton at HT / Southampton at FT	24.8%	21.9%	—	—	4.57
Norwich City at HT / Norwich City at FT	17.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Southampton at FT	15.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.4%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Norwich City at FT	10.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Norwich City at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.71
Southampton at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Norwich City at HT / Southampton at FT	3.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
Southampton at HT / Norwich City at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.88

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score last	51.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.93
Norwich City to score last	41.9%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	6.2%	7.5%	—	—	13.38

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.8%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Southampton to lead by 1 at any time	61.3%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.7%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Norwich City to lead by 1 at any time	49.5%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Southampton to lead by 2 at any time	30.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Norwich City to lead by 2 at any time	20.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.1%	14.9%	—	—	6.69
Southampton to lead by 3 at any time	12.5%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
Norwich City to lead by 3 at any time	6.6%	6.6%	—	—	15.10

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City most corners	57.3%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Southampton most corners	34.0%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	8.7%	8.5%	—	—	11.81

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.3%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.2%	78.6%	72.8%	1.08×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.1%	78.6%	83.4%	0.94×	1.27
2-5 goals	73.1%	72.4%	70.2%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.9%	63.4%	64.8%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	58.2%	59.2%	69.1%	0.86×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.6%	53.2%	47.1%	1.13×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.5%	48.7%	44.5%	1.09×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.0%	48.7%	50.4%	0.96×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.3%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.8%	39.1%	44.4%	0.88×	2.56
4-6 goals	32.2%	35.4%	22.4%	1.58×	2.83
4-5 goals	27.1%	30.2%	19.8%	1.52×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.3%	18.6%	8.1%	2.31×	5.37
7+ goals	3.4%	2.6%	1.4%	1.86×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton never behind	44.3%	48.4%	—	—	2.07
Norwich City never behind	32.6%	35.7%	—	—	2.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.3%	50.8%	49.4%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.7%	49.2%	50.6%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.6%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.4%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.7%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.8%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.4%	92.3%	96.0%	0.96×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.6%	82.4%	74.1%	1.11×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	81.2%	82.4%	90.6%	0.91×	1.21
Under 3.5 goals	64.3%	61.8%	76.3%	0.81×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	58.1%	58.8%	48.4%	1.22×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.9%	41.2%	51.6%	0.80×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	35.7%	38.2%	23.7%	1.61×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	18.8%	17.6%	9.4%	1.88×	5.67
Under 1.5 goals	18.4%	17.6%	25.9%	0.68×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	8.6%	7.7%	4.0%	1.96×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	6.2%	7.7%	7.3%	1.06×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.4%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.5%	92.4%	95.8%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.4%	75.9%	89.1%	0.85×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.0%	75.9%	65.1%	1.17×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.1%	51.8%	68.5%	0.76×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.9%	48.2%	31.5%	1.53×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.0%	24.1%	34.9%	0.69×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.6%	24.1%	10.9%	2.20×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.5%	7.6%	4.2%	1.81×	13.24
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.6%	2.8%	1.4%	1.96×	36.12

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.9%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.0%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.3%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.7%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.0%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.06

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.5%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.9%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.1%	22.2%	—	—	4.50
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.5%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City not to score in both halves	76.4%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Southampton not to score in both halves	69.2%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Southampton to score in both halves	30.8%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Norwich City to score in both halves	23.6%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.4%	60.2%	54.2%	1.11×	1.66
Only Southampton scores	19.7%	16.1%	15.3%	1.05×	6.21
Only Norwich City scores	12.7%	10.9%	23.4%	0.47×	9.15
Neither team scores	6.2%	7.2%	7.3%	0.98×	13.92

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.6%	22.6%	25.8%	0.88×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	24.7%	0.91×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	16.9%	17.4%	14.4%	1.21×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	12.2%	12.1%	18.7%	0.65×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	10.2%	12.1%	5.5%	2.20×	8.28
6 or more goals	8.6%	7.6%	4.0%	1.93×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	6.2%	7.6%	7.3%	1.05×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.2%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	29.3%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	17.5%	17.2%	—	—	5.83

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City not to win both halves	92.7%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Southampton not to win both halves	87.2%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Southampton to win both halves	12.8%	12.1%	—	—	8.25
Norwich City to win both halves	7.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.54

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win either half	58.6%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Norwich City to win neither half	53.9%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Norwich City to win either half	46.1%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Southampton to win neither half	41.4%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City not to win to nil	87.3%	88.2%	76.6%	1.15×	1.13
Southampton not to win to nil	80.3%	83.0%	84.7%	0.98×	1.21
Southampton to win to nil	19.7%	17.0%	15.3%	1.11×	5.88
Norwich City to win to nil	12.7%	11.8%	23.4%	0.50×	8.49

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.5%	27.8%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59
Southampton by 1	20.2%	24.1%	17.3%	1.40×	4.14
Norwich City by 1	16.1%	16.9%	24.2%	0.70×	5.91
Southampton by 2	13.6%	11.8%	8.7%	1.36×	8.47
Southampton by 3+	9.9%	7.3%	3.3%	2.22×	13.77
Norwich City by 2	8.9%	7.3%	11.3%	0.64×	13.77
Norwich City by 3+	4.8%	2.7%	8.1%	0.34×	36.93