Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 8
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
1.16 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-0.29 – +0.61
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
43.0%
Draw
24.0%
Aston Villa win
33.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–1.40 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 2.29 xGAston Villa 0.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Murillo |
| 17' |
 Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 20' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 29' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 30' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 35' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ola Aina |
| 38' |
Aston Villa |
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 42' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 44' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 48' |
Aston Villa |
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 53' |
Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 56' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 56' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.51 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 60' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 62' |
Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Goal | John McGinn |
| 64' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 64' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 66' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.55 | From Corner | — | Goal | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 92' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Elliot Anderson |
| 92' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jota Silva |
| 97' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.65 | 0.93 |
| Chris Wood FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 1.13 | 0.25 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nicolás Domínguez AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ryan Yates DMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Murillo DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Morato Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jota Silva Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Anthony Elanga Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Willy Boly Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| John McGinn AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| Matthew Cash AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jhon Durán FW | 77 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Ollie Watkins Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amadou Onana Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |