Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 17
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
1.08 – 0.17
Goals − xG
-1.08 – -0.34
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
35.8%
Draw
30.6%
Bournemouth win
33.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–1.24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.43–1.63 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 61% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 2.08 xGBournemouth 1.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Bournemouth |
Alex Tóth | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rayan |
| 9' |
Bournemouth |
Tyler Adams | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Wood |
| 17' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 19' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 20' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 22' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Tóth |
| 27' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 28' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 31' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Elliot Anderson |
| 31' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 43' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 44' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 44' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Milenkovic |
| 53' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Adrien Truffert |
| 57' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eli Junior Kroupi |
| 59' |
Bournemouth |
Ben Doak | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 59' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 61' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 63' |
Bournemouth |
Ben Doak | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 69' | Nottingham Forest | Taiwo Awoniyi | 0.19 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 75' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 78' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Milenkovic |
| 78' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 90' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Gibbs-White ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.80 | 0.06 | 0.92 |
| Igor Jesus FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Morato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| Omari Hutchinson MR | 82 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.90 | 0.77 |
| Elliot Anderson MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.55 | 0.09 |
| Ibrahim Sangare MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jair DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Chris Wood FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Luca Netz Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| James McAtee Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Tavernier AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 1.01 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.96 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Adam Smith DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| James Hill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 0.63 |
| Evanilson FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Rayan AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.51 |
| Alex Tóth DMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Ben Doak Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Justin Kluivert Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Cook Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |