Nottingham Forest v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 February 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 11
On target
9 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 6
xG per shot
0.30 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.11
Goals − xG
+2.82 – -0.76
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
44.3%
Draw
26.1%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
29.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–1.13 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 4.18 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 0.76 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 11' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 15' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 24' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Goal | Anthony Elanga |
| 26' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Pedro |
| 27' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 28' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ola Aina |
| 29' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Tariq Lamptey | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 31' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.63 | Open Play | — | Goal | Anthony Elanga |
| 35' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Pedro |
| 36' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Murillo |
| 38' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 48' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Simon Adingra | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 63' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.80 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Anthony Elanga |
| 66' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Wood |
| 68' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 87' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Matt O'Riley | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ibrahim Sangare |
| 88' | Nottingham Forest | Taiwo Awoniyi | 0.18 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jota Silva |
| 90' | Nottingham Forest | Jota Silva | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 94' | Nottingham Forest | Jota Silva | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Domínguez |
| 95' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matt O'Riley |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neco Williams ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Anthony Elanga FW | 90 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.46 | 1.47 | 1.89 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Morato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.26 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ola Aina MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1.97 |
| Chris Wood FW | 86 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2.27 | 0.06 | 1.57 |
| Elliot Anderson MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 76 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 2.03 |
| Murillo DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| Danilo MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.97 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Jota Silva Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.18 | 0.62 |
| Willy Boly Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Ibrahim Sangare Sub | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankuba Minteh MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
| Georginio Rutter MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Tariq Lamptey DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Joël Veltman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.46 |
| João Pedro MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| Jack Hinshelwood DMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kaoru Mitoma ML | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matt O'Riley Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Diego Gómez Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Evan Ferguson Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |