Nottingham Forest v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 14 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 23
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
1 – 14
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.67
Goals − xG
+0.47 – -1.72
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
22.7%
Draw
24.1%
Liverpool win
53.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.02–1.70 | 1-1 11% | 51% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 0.53 xGLiverpool 2.72 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 3' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 7' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Anthony Elanga |
| 9' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 23' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 24' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 27' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.45 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 40' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 40' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 57' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 62' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.56 | From Corner | — | Goal | Konstantinos Tsimikas |
| 68' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 73' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 76' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 80' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 82' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 85' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 87' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 87' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Virgil van Dijk |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wood FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Anthony Elanga AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Ryan Yates DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jota Silva Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morato Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álex Moreno Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.12 | 0.84 |
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.55 | 0.85 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Cody Gakpo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.59 | 0.77 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.67 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Luis Díaz FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.66 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.13 |
| Diogo Jota Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.48 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Curtis Jones Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |