Nottingham Forest v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 August 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 11
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
13 – 4
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-0.41 – -0.10
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
57.0%
Draw
22.2%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
20.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.90–1.06 | 1-1 10% | 57% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 1.41 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 1.10 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 1' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Goal | Elliot Anderson |
| 11' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mario Lemina |
| 19' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Sangare |
| 20' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ola Aina |
| 24' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 28' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jørgen Strand Larsen |
| 32' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Neco Williams |
| 42' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 43' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 55' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 55' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 63' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 64' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 65' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tommy Doyle | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hee-Chan Hwang |
| 66' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tommy Doyle |
| 66' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 78' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Milenkovic |
| 79' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ramón Sosa |
| 84' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 87' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tommy Doyle | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 94' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ramón Sosa |
| 94' | Nottingham Forest | Ramón Sosa | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Yates |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wood FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.73 | 1.07 |
| Neco Williams DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.82 |
| Anthony Elanga AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.70 |
| Ola Aina DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.82 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.27 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Ramón Sosa Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jota Silva Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| Toti DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sam Johnstone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Lemina MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.50 |
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Craig Dawson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde MR | 77 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nélson Semedo DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri ML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.11 | 0.95 |
| João Gomes MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tommy Doyle Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Matt Doherty Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |