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O'Higgins v Unión La Calera — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
O'Higgins win
62.2%
model 60.7%
Draw
18.9%
model 19.4%
Unión La Calera win
18.9%
model 19.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (222 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 14.4%
  2. 2-0 11.2%
  3. 2-1 9.7%
  4. 1-1 9.1%
  5. 0-1 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.549.4% Under 2.550.6%
BTTS yes46.4% BTTS no53.6%
O'Higgins 1+83.1% O'Higgins 2+53.1%
Unión La Calera 1+58.1% Unión La Calera 2+21.7%

Expected goals 1.78 – 0.87. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
O'Higgins (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 49%
63.4% fair odds 1.58
moderate signal · 877 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
O'Higgins or draw (1UP)
Double chance 1UP
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 419 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • O'Higgins carry the stronger rating, 1481 Elo against 1335.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

O'Higgins have an estimated 62.2% win probability, against 18.9% for Unión La Calera and 18.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.78 for O'Higgins and 0.87 for Unión La Calera.

Why O'Higgins

O'Higgins carry the stronger rating, 1481 Elo against 1335.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.9%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Unión La Calera can win

Nothing in the data singles out Unión La Calera.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for O'Higgins, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Unión La Calera, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

O'Higgins: 52% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Unión La Calera: 47% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. O'Higgins's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

O'Higgins are the model's most likely outcome at 62.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.4%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.78–0.87 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.72–0.76 1-0 16% 45% 42%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to win 62.2% 58.2% 48.9% 1.19× 1.72
Draw 19.7% 19.4% 21.3% 0.91× 5.17
Unión La Calera to win 18.1% 19.3% 30.1% 0.64× 5.17
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins & not both score 40.2% 40.0% 26.7% 1.50× 2.50
O'Higgins & both teams score 22.0% 21.9% 22.5% 0.97× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 13.3% 13.3% 16.6% 0.80× 7.54
Unión La Calera & not both score 11.4% 13.3% 16.9% 0.79× 7.55
Unión La Calera & both teams score 6.7% 8.4% 13.4% 0.62× 11.93
Draw & not both score 6.5% 8.4% 4.9% 1.71× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins & over 1.5 46.0% 45.2% 35.9% 1.26× 2.21
O'Higgins & under 3.5 45.1% 45.2% 34.0% 1.33× 2.21
O'Higgins & over 2.5 33.6% 30.9% 29.1% 1.06× 3.24
O'Higgins & under 2.5 28.6% 26.0% 20.0% 1.30× 3.84
O'Higgins & over 3.5 17.1% 18.0% 15.2% 1.19× 5.56
O'Higgins & under 1.5 16.2% 18.0% 13.2% 1.36× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 15.6% 18.0% 13.9% 1.29× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 15.6% 18.0% 13.9% 1.29× 5.56
Unión La Calera & under 3.5 15.4% 18.0% 23.5% 0.77× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 13.3% 12.9% 16.6% 0.77× 7.77
Unión La Calera & under 2.5 10.6% 12.9% 13.7% 0.94× 7.77
Unión La Calera & over 1.5 9.9% 7.9% 20.0% 0.39× 12.69
Unión La Calera & under 1.5 8.2% 7.9% 10.3% 0.77× 12.70
Unión La Calera & over 2.5 7.5% 7.9% 16.6% 0.47× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 6.5% 7.9% 4.9% 1.61× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 4.2% 4.8% 7.6% 0.63× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 4.2% 4.8% 7.6% 0.63× 20.93
Unión La Calera & over 3.5 2.7% 4.8% 6.8% 0.70× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (1UP) 71.9% 75.8% 1.32
Unión La Calera (1UP) 32.3% 32.7% 3.05
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (2UP) 62.2% 67.7% 1.48
Unión La Calera (2UP) 18.1% 17.5% 5.72
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to win 2nd half 48.2% 45.5% 2.20
2nd half drawn 34.3% 34.5% 2.90
Unión La Calera to win 2nd half 17.4% 19.0% 5.27
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera (+2.5) 84.5% 82.4% 89.7% 0.92× 1.21
O'Higgins (+0.5) 81.9% 82.4% 69.9% 1.18× 1.21
Unión La Calera (+1.5) 65.7% 68.7% 77.0% 0.89× 1.46
O'Higgins (-0.5) 62.2% 62.9% 48.9% 1.29× 1.59
Unión La Calera (+0.5) 37.8% 37.1% 51.1% 0.73× 2.70
O'Higgins (-1.5) 34.3% 31.3% 23.0% 1.36× 3.20
Unión La Calera (-0.5) 18.1% 17.6% 30.1% 0.59× 5.68
O'Higgins (-2.5) 15.5% 17.6% 10.3% 1.71× 5.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera to concede 82.2% 81.3% 78.5% 1.04× 1.23
Unión La Calera clean sheet 17.8% 18.7% 21.5% 0.87× 5.35
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera clean sheet in 1st half 47.6% 50.7% 1.97
Unión La Calera to concede in 1st half 52.4% 49.3% 2.03
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera over 2.5 corners 79.7% 75.8% 1.32
Unión La Calera under 6.5 corners 75.5% 75.8% 1.32
Unión La Calera over 3.5 corners 65.0% 68.2% 1.47
Unión La Calera under 5.5 corners 64.2% 61.4% 1.63
Unión La Calera under 4.5 corners 50.3% 52.4% 1.91
Unión La Calera over 4.5 corners 49.7% 47.6% 2.10
Unión La Calera over 5.5 corners 35.8% 38.6% 2.59
Unión La Calera under 3.5 corners 35.0% 31.8% 3.15
Unión La Calera over 6.5 corners 24.5% 24.2% 4.13
Unión La Calera under 2.5 corners 20.3% 24.2% 4.14
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera under 3.5 goals 99.2% 97.6% 97.1% 1.01× 1.03
Unión La Calera under 2.5 goals 95.8% 97.5% 88.3% 1.11× 1.03
Unión La Calera under 1.5 goals 82.2% 81.4% 68.5% 1.19× 1.23
Unión La Calera over 0.5 goals 53.3% 53.7% 68.7% 0.78× 1.86
Unión La Calera under 0.5 goals 46.7% 46.3% 31.3% 1.48× 2.16
Unión La Calera over 1.5 goals 17.8% 18.6% 31.5% 0.59× 5.38
Unión La Calera over 2.5 goals 4.2% 2.5% 11.7% 0.21× 40.65
Unión La Calera over 3.5 goals 0.8% 2.4% 2.9% 0.83× 40.84
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera under 1.5 in 1st half 96.2% 95.7% 1.05
Unión La Calera under 0.5 in 1st half 73.7% 69.0% 1.45
Unión La Calera over 0.5 in 1st half 26.3% 31.0% 3.22
Unión La Calera over 1.5 in 1st half 3.8% 4.3% 23.26
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (away no bet) 75.9% 73.6% 69.7% 1.06× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 24.1% 26.4% 30.3% 0.87× 3.79
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera even goals 60.9% 59.0% 53.5% 1.10× 1.70
Unión La Calera odd goals 39.1% 41.0% 46.5% 0.88× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 88.1% 87.7% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 11.9% 12.3% 8.15
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 57.5% 60.2% 1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals 42.5% 39.8% 2.51
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 54.0% 51.4% 1.95
O'Higgins to score 2+ in a row 45.4% 45.7% 2.19
Either team to score 3+ in a row 21.2% 19.5% 5.13
O'Higgins to score 3+ in a row 19.2% 16.4% 6.11
Unión La Calera to score 2+ in a row 12.1% 12.2% 8.22
Unión La Calera to score 3+ in a row 2.1% 2.5% 39.28
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins corners (+3.5) 88.9% 84.2% 1.19
O'Higgins corners (+2.5) 83.6% 80.0% 1.25
O'Higgins corners (+1.5) 76.9% 75.5% 1.33
Unión La Calera corners (+3.5) 68.5% 66.8% 1.50
Unión La Calera corners (+2.5) 59.7% 56.8% 1.76
Unión La Calera corners (+1.5) 50.2% 52.3% 1.91
O'Higgins corners (-1.5) 49.8% 47.7% 2.10
O'Higgins corners (-2.5) 40.3% 43.2% 2.32
O'Higgins corners (-3.5) 31.5% 33.2% 3.01
Unión La Calera corners (-1.5) 23.1% 24.5% 4.08
Unión La Calera corners (-2.5) 16.4% 20.0% 5.00
Unión La Calera corners (-3.5) 11.1% 15.8% 6.32
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 44.3% 37.1% 2.70
0-8 corners 27.9% 31.8% 3.15
9-11 corners 27.9% 31.8% 3.15
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 80.4% 79.8% 1.25
Over 8.5 corners 72.2% 72.5% 1.38
Under 12.5 corners 64.3% 62.7% 1.60
Over 9.5 corners 63.0% 62.7% 1.60
Under 11.5 corners 55.7% 57.8% 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 53.6% 52.2% 1.91
Under 10.5 corners 46.4% 47.8% 2.09
Over 11.5 corners 44.3% 42.2% 2.37
Under 9.5 corners 37.0% 37.3% 2.68
Over 12.5 corners 35.7% 37.3% 2.68
Under 8.5 corners 27.9% 27.5% 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 19.6% 20.2% 4.96
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 16.2% 13.8% 13.2% 1.04× 7.27
2-0 12.4% 11.5% 7.1% 1.62× 8.73
1-1 9.1% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.48
2-1 9.4% 7.4% 10.8% 0.69× 13.48
0-1 8.2% 7.4% 10.3% 0.72× 13.48
3-0 7.1% 7.4% 3.7% 2.02× 13.48
0-0 6.5% 7.4% 4.9% 1.52× 13.48
3-1 5.4% 7.4% 4.6% 1.60× 13.48
0-2 2.4% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.48
0-3 0.6% 1.7% 2.9% 0.58× 58.49
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.33× 58.49
1-2 4.2% 1.7% 7.3% 0.23× 58.47
1-3 1.1% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.48
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.33× 58.49
2-2 3.6% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.47
2-3 0.9% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.48
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.75× 58.49
3-2 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 0.87× 58.48
3-3 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.49
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.75× 58.49
4-0 3.1% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.47
4-1 2.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.48
4-2 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.48
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.75× 58.49
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 6.99× 58.49
Any other score 3.2% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins leading at HT (DNB) 75.1% 77.5% 1.29
Unión La Calera leading at HT (DNB) 24.9% 22.5% 4.44
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins or draw (1X) 81.9% 80.7% 69.9% 1.15× 1.24
O'Higgins or Unión La Calera (12) 80.3% 80.6% 78.7% 1.02× 1.24
Unión La Calera or draw (X2) 37.8% 41.8% 51.1% 0.82× 2.39
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins or draw at HT 85.8% 88.0% 1.14
Unión La Calera or draw at HT 57.1% 56.9% 1.76
O'Higgins or Unión La Calera at HT 57.1% 56.9% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins or draw (1UP) 81.9% 88.4% 1.13
Unión La Calera or draw (1UP) 37.8% 42.4% 2.36
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins or draw in 2nd half 82.6% 81.0% 1.23
O'Higgins or Unión La Calera in 2nd half 65.7% 65.5% 1.53
Unión La Calera or draw in 2nd half 51.8% 54.5% 1.84
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 64.5% 61.7% 1.62
Neither half drawn 35.5% 38.3% 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (DNB) 77.5% 74.6% 61.9% 1.21× 1.34
Unión La Calera (DNB) 22.5% 25.4% 38.1% 0.67× 3.94
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to score first 64.9% 64.8% 1.54
Unión La Calera to score first 28.7% 28.4% 3.53
No goal scored 6.5% 7.5% 13.36
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 58.0% 54.9% 47.9% 1.15× 1.82
Both teams to score 42.0% 45.1% 52.1% 0.87× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 45.7% 44.3% 38.1% 1.16× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 32.9% 34.3% 43.0% 0.80× 2.92
Not both score & over 2.5 12.4% 12.3% 10.0% 1.23× 8.11
Both score & under 2.5 9.1% 8.4% 9.3% 0.90× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 90.9% 89.1% 84.6% 1.05× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 9.1% 10.9% 15.4% 0.71× 9.17
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 77.7% 75.3% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 22.3% 24.7% 4.06
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 67.4% 62.2% 1.61
Both score 2nd half only 19.2% 15.7% 6.36
Both score 1st half only 10.3% 10.7% 9.34
Both score in both halves 3.2% 5.0% 20.07
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 86.6% 86.0% 1.16
Both teams to score by HT 13.4% 14.1% 7.12
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 51.4% 53.4% 1.87
A goal in each half 48.6% 46.6% 2.14
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.2% 47.4% 43.3% 1.10× 2.11
0-1 goals 30.9% 30.7% 27.9% 1.10× 3.25
4-6 goals 22.6% 22.8% 26.9% 0.85× 4.38
7+ goals 1.4% 1.8% 2.4% 0.75× 54.66
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera to score exactly 0 46.7% 42.9% 31.3% 1.37× 2.33
Unión La Calera to score exactly 1 35.6% 36.0% 37.4% 0.96× 2.78
Unión La Calera to score exactly 2 13.6% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.80
Unión La Calera to score 3+ 4.2% 4.5% 11.7% 0.39× 22.02
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to score exactly 1 30.8% 32.6% 31.8% 1.03× 3.06
O'Higgins to score exactly 2 26.5% 26.5% 26.4% 1.00× 3.77
O'Higgins to score 3+ 24.9% 23.3% 20.8% 1.12× 4.30
O'Higgins to score exactly 0 17.8% 18.9% 21.5% 0.88× 5.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins leading at HT 42.9% 43.1% 2.32
Draw at HT 42.9% 43.1% 2.32
Unión La Calera leading at HT 14.2% 12.0% 8.34
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins -1: 2 37.8% 37.3% 2.68
O'Higgins -1: 1 34.3% 30.1% 3.32
O'Higgins -1: X 27.9% 26.5% 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera (0:1) 37.8% 37.3% 51.1% 0.73× 2.68
O'Higgins (0:1) 34.3% 30.1% 23.0% 1.31× 3.33
Draw (0:1) 27.9% 27.0% 26.2% 1.03× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera (0:2) 65.7% 72.1% 77.0% 0.94× 1.39
Draw (0:2) 18.8% 15.3% 13.0% 1.18× 6.54
O'Higgins (0:2) 15.5% 15.3% 10.3% 1.49× 6.55
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera (0:3) 84.5% 85.2% 89.7% 0.95× 1.17
Draw (0:3) 9.8% 5.8% 5.1% 1.14× 17.12
O'Higgins (0:3) 5.7% 5.8% 5.4% 1.08× 17.19
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera (0:4) 94.3% 94.7% 94.6% 1.00× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 4.0% 1.2% 4.2% 0.29× 83.21
O'Higgins (0:4) 1.8% 1.2% 1.5% 0.82× 83.47
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (1:0) 81.9% 81.4% 69.9% 1.16× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 13.4% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.80
Unión La Calera (1:0) 4.7% 3.2% 10.3% 0.31× 31.35
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (2:0) 95.3% 96.9% 89.7% 1.08× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 3.7% 2.3% 6.4% 0.36× 44.14
Unión La Calera (2:0) 1.0% 2.3% 4.2% 0.54× 44.31
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.6% 48.1% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 28.6% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 23.7% 24.1% 4.15
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to concede 53.3% 53.1% 68.7% 0.77× 1.88
O'Higgins clean sheet 46.7% 46.9% 31.3% 1.50× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins clean sheet in 1st half 73.7% 68.6% 1.46
O'Higgins to concede in 1st half 26.3% 31.4% 3.18
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins over 2.5 corners 90.0% 85.2% 1.17
O'Higgins over 3.5 corners 80.6% 81.3% 1.23
O'Higgins over 4.5 corners 68.9% 67.8% 1.48
O'Higgins over 5.5 corners 56.4% 57.4% 1.74
O'Higgins under 6.5 corners 55.8% 57.4% 1.74
O'Higgins over 6.5 corners 44.2% 42.6% 2.35
O'Higgins under 5.5 corners 43.6% 42.6% 2.35
O'Higgins under 4.5 corners 31.1% 32.2% 3.10
O'Higgins under 3.5 corners 19.4% 18.7% 5.35
O'Higgins under 2.5 corners 10.0% 14.8% 6.77
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins under 3.5 goals 90.3% 92.2% 91.0% 1.01× 1.08
O'Higgins over 0.5 goals 82.2% 82.1% 78.5% 1.05× 1.22
O'Higgins under 2.5 goals 75.1% 77.7% 79.2% 0.98× 1.29
O'Higgins over 1.5 goals 51.4% 53.2% 46.9% 1.13× 1.88
O'Higgins under 1.5 goals 48.6% 46.8% 53.1% 0.88× 2.14
O'Higgins over 2.5 goals 24.9% 22.3% 20.8% 1.07× 4.49
O'Higgins under 0.5 goals 17.8% 17.9% 21.5% 0.83× 5.59
O'Higgins over 3.5 goals 9.7% 7.8% 9.0% 0.86× 12.89
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins under 1.5 in 1st half 83.0% 84.3% 1.19
O'Higgins under 0.5 in 1st half 47.6% 50.9% 1.97
O'Higgins over 0.5 in 1st half 52.4% 49.1% 2.04
O'Higgins over 1.5 in 1st half 17.0% 15.7% 6.36
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 52.2% 51.6% 41.4% 1.25× 1.94
Unión La Calera (home no bet) 47.8% 48.4% 58.6% 0.83× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins even goals 51.6% 50.6% 54.5% 0.93× 1.98
O'Higgins odd goals 48.4% 49.4% 45.5% 1.09× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 34.8% 32.4% 3.08
HT 1-0 26.4% 28.8% 3.47
HT 0-1 11.0% 10.9% 9.17
HT 2-0 9.7% 7.1% 14.01
HT 1-1 7.6% 7.1% 14.04
Any other HT score 4.3% 2.3% 43.29
HT 2-1 2.9% 2.3% 43.39
HT 0-2 1.6% 2.3% 43.49
HT 1-2 1.2% 2.3% 43.52
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.3% 43.58
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins at HT / O'Higgins at FT 38.1% 41.0% 2.44
Draw at HT / O'Higgins at FT 21.8% 21.8% 4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.7% 12.7% 7.89
Unión La Calera at HT / Unión La Calera at FT 8.6% 6.0% 16.63
Draw at HT / Unión La Calera at FT 8.4% 6.0% 16.64
O'Higgins at HT / Draw at FT 3.7% 3.5% 28.82
Unión La Calera at HT / Draw at FT 3.3% 3.5% 28.83
Unión La Calera at HT / O'Higgins at FT 2.3% 3.5% 28.87
O'Higgins at HT / Unión La Calera at FT 1.0% 3.5% 28.92
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to score last 64.5% 62.3% 1.61
Unión La Calera to score last 29.0% 27.2% 3.68
No goal scored 6.5% 7.5% 13.36
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.5% 92.6% 1.08
O'Higgins to lead by 1 at any time 71.9% 74.2% 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 47.1% 44.0% 2.27
O'Higgins to lead by 2 at any time 39.5% 34.9% 2.86
Unión La Calera to lead by 1 at any time 32.3% 29.4% 3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 19.1% 14.9% 6.69
O'Higgins to lead by 3 at any time 17.6% 14.9% 6.70
Unión La Calera to lead by 2 at any time 7.7% 6.6% 15.05
Unión La Calera to lead by 3 at any time 1.5% 1.6% 62.81
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins most corners 59.5% 55.5% 1.80
Unión La Calera most corners 31.3% 33.7% 2.96
Corners level 9.2% 8.4% 11.89
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 89.4% 87.4% 87.3% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 82.8% 83.5% 81.2% 1.03× 1.20
1-3 goals 69.6% 69.0% 66.3% 1.04× 1.45
2-6 goals 67.8% 69.0% 69.9% 0.99× 1.45
2-5 goals 65.0% 68.9% 64.3% 1.07× 1.45
2-4 goals 58.4% 59.2% 58.2% 1.02× 1.69
1-2 goals 48.3% 48.7% 42.5% 1.14× 2.06
2-3 goals 45.2% 48.7% 43.3% 1.12× 2.06
3-6 goals 43.9% 43.6% 50.6% 0.86× 2.30
3-5 goals 41.2% 43.6% 45.0% 0.97× 2.30
3-4 goals 34.6% 35.4% 38.9% 0.91× 2.83
4-6 goals 22.6% 24.5% 26.9% 0.91× 4.09
4-5 goals 19.8% 18.6% 21.3% 0.88× 5.37
5-6 goals 9.3% 8.7% 12.0% 0.73× 11.43
7+ goals 1.4% 2.5% 2.4% 1.04× 39.27
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins never behind 61.2% 67.3% 1.49
Unión La Calera never behind 21.6% 24.3% 4.12
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 46.7% 50.8% 45.0% 1.13× 1.97
Odd number of goals 53.3% 49.2% 55.0% 0.89× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.5% 57.4% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.5% 42.6% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.5% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.5% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.9% 95.5% 91.9% 1.04× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 93.5% 92.3% 95.1% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 89.3% 87.7% 85.8% 1.02× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 76.1% 77.3% 70.9% 1.09× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 69.1% 66.2% 72.1% 0.92× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 54.7% 52.5% 47.2% 1.11× 1.91
Over 2.5 goals 45.3% 47.5% 52.8% 0.90× 2.11
Under 1.5 goals 30.9% 33.8% 27.9% 1.21× 2.96
Over 3.5 goals 23.9% 22.7% 29.1% 0.78× 4.41
Over 4.5 goals 10.7% 12.3% 14.2% 0.87× 8.10
Under 0.5 goals 6.5% 7.7% 4.9% 1.58× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 4.1% 4.5% 8.1% 0.56× 22.20
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.6% 97.2% 97.4% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.6% 97.2% 91.4% 1.06× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 87.7% 86.7% 83.3% 1.04× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 69.6% 67.4% 61.9% 1.09× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 59.4% 55.5% 65.5% 0.85× 1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 40.6% 44.5% 34.5% 1.29× 2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 30.4% 32.6% 38.1% 0.85× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 12.3% 13.3% 16.7% 0.80× 7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.4% 2.8% 8.6% 0.32× 36.09
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.4% 2.8% 2.6% 1.07× 36.18
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 91.1% 92.6% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 72.2% 71.2% 1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half 65.2% 68.9% 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 34.8% 31.1% 3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half 27.8% 28.8% 3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half 8.9% 7.4% 13.51
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 82.4% 82.8% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 76.9% 79.7% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 58.5% 54.9% 1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 41.5% 45.1% 2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 23.1% 20.3% 4.93
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 17.6% 17.2% 5.82
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera not to score in both halves 90.4% 89.8% 1.11
O'Higgins not to score in both halves 67.2% 70.4% 1.42
O'Higgins to score in both halves 32.8% 29.6% 3.38
Unión La Calera to score in both halves 9.6% 10.2% 9.79
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 42.0% 46.6% 52.1% 0.89× 2.15
Only O'Higgins scores 40.2% 46.6% 26.7% 1.75× 2.15
Only Unión La Calera scores 11.4% 10.9% 16.9% 0.65× 9.15
Neither team scores 6.5% 7.2% 4.9% 1.47× 13.92
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 24.4% 22.6% 23.2% 0.97× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 23.9% 22.6% 19.6% 1.16× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 21.3% 22.6% 24.0% 0.94× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 13.2% 12.1% 15.2% 0.80× 8.27
Exactly 0 goals 6.5% 7.6% 4.9% 1.56× 13.09
Exactly 5 goals 6.6% 7.6% 6.4% 1.20× 13.09
6 or more goals 4.1% 4.4% 8.1% 0.55× 22.66
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 41.5% 44.2% 2.26
1 goal in 2nd half 35.4% 39.5% 2.54
No goals in 2nd half 23.1% 23.1% 4.32
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera not to win both halves 97.7% 97.2% 1.03
O'Higgins not to win both halves 79.7% 75.5% 1.32
O'Higgins to win both halves 20.3% 24.5% 4.09
Unión La Calera to win both halves 2.3% 2.8% 36.28
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to win either half 70.9% 72.8% 1.37
Unión La Calera to win neither half 70.7% 72.8% 1.37
Unión La Calera to win either half 29.3% 27.2% 3.68
O'Higgins to win neither half 29.2% 27.2% 3.68
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera not to win to nil 88.6% 88.2% 83.1% 1.06× 1.13
O'Higgins not to win to nil 59.8% 59.0% 73.4% 0.80× 1.70
O'Higgins to win to nil 40.2% 41.0% 26.7% 1.54× 2.44
Unión La Calera to win to nil 11.4% 11.8% 16.9% 0.70× 8.50
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins by 1 27.9% 27.9% 26.2% 1.06× 3.59
Draw 19.7% 16.9% 21.3% 0.80× 5.91
O'Higgins by 2 18.8% 16.9% 13.0% 1.31× 5.91
O'Higgins by 3+ 15.5% 16.9% 10.3% 1.65× 5.91
Unión La Calera by 1 13.4% 11.8% 20.0% 0.59× 8.47
Unión La Calera by 2 3.7% 2.7% 6.4% 0.43× 36.97
Unión La Calera by 3+ 1.0% 2.7% 4.2% 0.65× 37.05
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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