OGC Nice v Le Mans — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · FIFA:2000000018 · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.9%
- 0-1 8.5%
- 1-2 8.4%
- 1-0 8.4%
- 2-1 8.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | Under 2.5 | 46.7% |
| BTTS yes | 57.0% | BTTS no | 43.0% |
| OGC Nice 1+ | 75.2% | OGC Nice 2+ | 40.6% |
| Le Mans 1+ | 75.7% | Le Mans 2+ | 41.4% |
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.42. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Le Mans carry the stronger rating, 1603 Elo against 1500.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- OGC Nice have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Le Mans have an estimated 37.9% win probability, against 36.9% for OGC Nice and 25.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.40 for OGC Nice and 1.42 for Le Mans.
Why OGC Nice
At home OGC Nice average 1.35 xG a match. They have had 14 days' rest to Le Mans's 6.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.40 to 1.42.
Why Le Mans can win
Le Mans carry the stronger rating, 1603 Elo against 1500.
Key players
Le Mans's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Louis Mafouta (0.65), Dame Gueye (0.36), Lucas Buades (0.21).
Availability
No lineup on record for OGC Nice, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
OGC Nice: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Le Mans: 47% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 21:18 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Le Mans are the model's most likely outcome at 37.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.40–1.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.