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OH Leuven v Cercle Brugge KSV — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · BEL-Pro League · 2627

BEL-Pro League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
OH Leuven win
28.2%
model 30.2%
Draw
27.5%
model 26.3%
Cercle Brugge KSV win
44.2%
model 43.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.5%
  2. 0-1 9.5%
  3. 1-2 9.1%
  4. 1-0 7.5%
  5. 0-2 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.551.2% Under 2.548.8%
BTTS yes55.2% BTTS no44.8%
OH Leuven 1+70.3% OH Leuven 2+34.3%
Cercle Brugge KSV 1+77.9% Cercle Brugge KSV 2+44.5%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.51. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
80/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Cercle Brugge KSV (DNB)
Draw no bet · usually 42%
63.5% fair odds 1.57
moderate signal · 271 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
83.0% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1236 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Cercle Brugge KSV carry the stronger rating, 1422 Elo against 1352.
  • They have had 14 days' rest to OH Leuven's 9.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Cercle Brugge KSV have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 28.2% for OH Leuven and 27.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.22 for OH Leuven and 1.51 for Cercle Brugge KSV.

Why OH Leuven

Nothing in the data singles out OH Leuven.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.5%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Cercle Brugge KSV can win

Cercle Brugge KSV carry the stronger rating, 1422 Elo against 1352. They have had 14 days' rest to OH Leuven's 9.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for OH Leuven, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Cercle Brugge KSV, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

OH Leuven: 39% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cercle Brugge KSV: 45% possession, 17.4 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Cercle Brugge KSV are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.22–1.51 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.17–1.42 1-1 13% 48% 53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV to win 42.4% 43.0% 30.9% 1.39× 2.33
OH Leuven to win 30.5% 30.4% 42.9% 0.71× 3.29
Draw 27.1% 27.9% 26.4% 1.06× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV & not both score 23.2% 21.9% 14.5% 1.51× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 19.1% 17.9% 18.8% 0.95× 5.58
Cercle Brugge KSV & both teams score 19.2% 17.9% 16.5% 1.09× 5.58
OH Leuven & not both score 16.2% 17.9% 24.4% 0.73× 5.58
OH Leuven & both teams score 14.3% 13.3% 18.7% 0.71× 7.55
Draw & not both score 8.0% 8.4% 7.7% 1.09× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV & over 1.5 32.1% 30.9% 24.4% 1.27× 3.24
Cercle Brugge KSV & under 3.5 30.3% 30.9% 21.9% 1.41× 3.24
Cercle Brugge KSV & over 2.5 24.5% 21.6% 19.8% 1.10× 4.62
OH Leuven & under 3.5 22.7% 21.6% 29.5% 0.73× 4.62
OH Leuven & over 1.5 22.2% 21.6% 33.6% 0.64× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 20.9% 21.6% 19.9% 1.09× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 20.9% 21.6% 19.9% 1.09× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 19.1% 18.0% 18.8% 0.96× 5.56
Cercle Brugge KSV & under 2.5 17.8% 18.0% 11.3% 1.60× 5.56
OH Leuven & over 2.5 17.0% 18.0% 26.1% 0.69× 5.56
OH Leuven & under 2.5 13.4% 12.9% 17.0% 0.76× 7.77
Cercle Brugge KSV & over 3.5 12.1% 12.9% 9.1% 1.41× 7.78
Cercle Brugge KSV & under 1.5 10.2% 12.9% 6.6% 1.94× 7.78
OH Leuven & under 1.5 8.3% 7.9% 9.4% 0.84× 12.69
OH Leuven & over 3.5 7.8% 7.9% 13.6% 0.58× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 8.0% 7.9% 7.7% 1.02× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 6.2% 7.9% 6.6% 1.19× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 6.2% 7.9% 6.6% 1.19× 12.69
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (1UP) 57.9% 58.0% 1.72
OH Leuven (1UP) 47.5% 42.9% 2.33
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (2UP) 42.4% 47.6% 2.10
OH Leuven (2UP) 30.5% 30.9% 3.24
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV to win 2nd half 37.2% 36.1% 2.77
2nd half drawn 36.6% 36.1% 2.77
OH Leuven to win 2nd half 26.3% 26.2% 3.81
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (+2.5) 96.0% 96.3% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Cercle Brugge KSV (+1.5) 87.4% 88.5% 77.9% 1.14× 1.13
Cercle Brugge KSV (+0.5) 69.5% 68.7% 57.1% 1.20× 1.46
OH Leuven (+0.5) 57.6% 57.0% 69.1% 0.82× 1.75
Cercle Brugge KSV (-0.5) 42.4% 43.0% 30.9% 1.39× 2.33
OH Leuven (-0.5) 30.5% 31.3% 42.9% 0.73× 3.20
OH Leuven (-1.5) 12.6% 11.5% 22.1% 0.52× 8.69
OH Leuven (-2.5) 4.0% 3.7% 10.5% 0.36× 26.75
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV to concede 68.8% 72.6% 77.9% 0.93× 1.38
Cercle Brugge KSV clean sheet 31.2% 27.4% 22.1% 1.24× 3.64
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV clean sheet in 1st half 60.6% 64.6% 1.55
Cercle Brugge KSV to concede in 1st half 39.4% 35.4% 2.83
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV over 2.5 corners 91.0% 89.2% 1.12
Cercle Brugge KSV over 3.5 corners 81.8% 80.9% 1.24
Cercle Brugge KSV over 4.5 corners 70.1% 72.3% 1.38
Cercle Brugge KSV over 5.5 corners 57.1% 56.9% 1.76
Cercle Brugge KSV under 6.5 corners 55.7% 56.9% 1.76
Cercle Brugge KSV over 6.5 corners 44.3% 43.1% 2.32
Cercle Brugge KSV under 5.5 corners 42.9% 43.1% 2.32
Cercle Brugge KSV under 4.5 corners 29.9% 27.7% 3.61
Cercle Brugge KSV under 3.5 corners 18.2% 19.1% 5.25
Cercle Brugge KSV under 2.5 corners 9.0% 10.8% 9.27
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV under 3.5 goals 94.4% 92.4% 95.2% 0.97× 1.08
Cercle Brugge KSV under 2.5 goals 82.9% 81.5% 86.9% 0.94× 1.23
Cercle Brugge KSV over 0.5 goals 75.8% 76.2% 68.1% 1.12× 1.31
Cercle Brugge KSV under 1.5 goals 58.5% 59.6% 64.7% 0.92× 1.68
Cercle Brugge KSV over 1.5 goals 41.5% 40.4% 35.3% 1.14× 2.48
Cercle Brugge KSV under 0.5 goals 24.2% 23.8% 31.9% 0.74× 4.20
Cercle Brugge KSV over 2.5 goals 17.1% 18.5% 13.1% 1.41× 5.40
Cercle Brugge KSV over 3.5 goals 5.6% 7.6% 4.8% 1.60× 13.09
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV under 1.5 in 1st half 88.9% 89.6% 1.12
Cercle Brugge KSV under 0.5 in 1st half 56.7% 62.9% 1.59
Cercle Brugge KSV over 0.5 in 1st half 43.3% 37.1% 2.69
Cercle Brugge KSV over 1.5 in 1st half 11.1% 10.4% 9.64
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven (away no bet) 52.9% 51.3% 61.9% 0.83× 1.95
Draw (away no bet) 47.1% 48.7% 38.1% 1.28× 2.05
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV even goals 52.9% 52.7% 57.4% 0.92× 1.90
Cercle Brugge KSV odd goals 47.1% 47.3% 42.6% 1.11× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.0% 87.9% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 13.0% 12.1% 8.26
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 61.0% 57.6% 1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals 39.0% 42.4% 2.36
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 52.9% 51.2% 1.95
Cercle Brugge KSV to score 2+ in a row 33.7% 28.6% 3.50
OH Leuven to score 2+ in a row 24.7% 19.4% 5.16
Either team to score 3+ in a row 17.7% 16.4% 6.09
Cercle Brugge KSV to score 3+ in a row 11.3% 12.0% 8.36
OH Leuven to score 3+ in a row 6.7% 5.6% 18.00
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV corners (+3.5) 83.9% 80.0% 1.25
Cercle Brugge KSV corners (+2.5) 77.5% 75.5% 1.33
OH Leuven corners (+3.5) 75.0% 75.5% 1.33
Cercle Brugge KSV corners (+1.5) 69.8% 66.8% 1.50
OH Leuven corners (+2.5) 67.0% 66.8% 1.50
OH Leuven corners (+1.5) 58.0% 56.8% 1.76
Cercle Brugge KSV corners (-1.5) 42.0% 43.2% 2.31
Cercle Brugge KSV corners (-2.5) 33.0% 33.2% 3.01
OH Leuven corners (-1.5) 30.2% 33.2% 3.01
Cercle Brugge KSV corners (-3.5) 25.0% 24.5% 4.08
OH Leuven corners (-2.5) 22.5% 24.5% 4.08
OH Leuven corners (-3.5) 16.1% 20.0% 5.00
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 52.6% 46.3% 2.16
9-11 corners 26.7% 31.8% 3.15
0-8 corners 20.7% 26.3% 3.81
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 86.2% 82.8% 1.21
Over 8.5 corners 79.3% 76.6% 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 71.0% 72.5% 1.38
Over 10.5 corners 62.0% 62.7% 1.60
Under 12.5 corners 56.5% 57.8% 1.73
Over 11.5 corners 52.6% 52.2% 1.91
Under 11.5 corners 47.4% 47.8% 2.09
Over 12.5 corners 43.5% 42.2% 2.37
Under 10.5 corners 38.0% 37.3% 2.68
Under 9.5 corners 29.0% 27.5% 3.64
Under 8.5 corners 20.7% 23.4% 4.28
Under 7.5 corners 13.8% 17.2% 5.80
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.9% 11.5% 12.3% 0.93× 8.73
0-1 10.2% 11.4% 6.6% 1.73× 8.73
1-2 8.9% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.46
0-0 8.0% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.46
0-2 7.6% 7.4% 4.8% 1.55× 13.46
1-0 8.3% 7.4% 9.4% 0.79× 13.46
2-1 7.3% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.46
2-0 5.1% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.46
2-2 5.2% 7.4% 5.2% 1.42× 13.46
0-3 3.6% 1.7% 2.2% 0.79× 58.57
0-4 1.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.84× 58.59
1-3 4.2% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.57
1-4 1.5% 1.7% 1.2% 1.38× 58.58
2-3 2.4% 1.7% 2.2% 0.79× 58.58
2-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.9% 1.84× 58.59
3-0 2.0% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.58
3-1 2.8% 1.7% 2.9% 0.58× 58.58
3-2 2.0% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.58
3-3 1.0% 1.7% 0.9% 1.84× 58.59
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.69× 58.59
4-0 0.6% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.59
4-1 0.8% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.59
4-2 0.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.23× 58.59
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.21× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.69× 58.59
Any other score 2.2% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV leading at HT (DNB) 54.0% 55.9% 1.79
OH Leuven leading at HT (DNB) 46.0% 44.1% 2.27
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven or Cercle Brugge KSV (12) 72.9% 72.1% 73.6% 0.98× 1.39
Cercle Brugge KSV or draw (X2) 69.5% 69.6% 57.1% 1.22× 1.44
OH Leuven or draw (1X) 57.6% 57.0% 69.1% 0.82× 1.76
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV or draw at HT 74.7% 74.7% 1.34
OH Leuven or draw at HT 70.3% 74.6% 1.34
OH Leuven or Cercle Brugge KSV at HT 55.0% 56.7% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV or draw (1UP) 69.5% 76.1% 1.31
OH Leuven or draw (1UP) 57.6% 62.7% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV or draw in 2nd half 73.7% 73.8% 1.36
OH Leuven or Cercle Brugge KSV in 2nd half 63.4% 63.9% 1.56
OH Leuven or draw in 2nd half 62.8% 63.9% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 64.6% 61.7% 1.62
Neither half drawn 35.4% 38.3% 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (DNB) 58.2% 58.2% 41.8% 1.39× 1.72
OH Leuven (DNB) 41.8% 41.8% 58.2% 0.72× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV to score first 50.5% 54.1% 1.85
OH Leuven to score first 41.5% 41.6% 2.41
No goal scored 8.0% 7.4% 13.49
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 52.7% 51.5% 53.7% 0.96× 1.94
Not both teams to score 47.3% 48.5% 46.3% 1.05× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 39.7% 38.5% 41.5% 0.93× 2.59
Not both score & under 2.5 39.3% 38.5% 35.6% 1.08× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.9% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.1% 8.4% 10.8% 0.77× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 86.5% 85.7% 85.5% 1.00× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 13.5% 14.3% 14.5% 0.99× 6.98
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.0% 74.5% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 28.0% 25.5% 3.92
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 59.6% 60.0% 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 23.2% 21.2% 4.73
Both score 1st half only 12.4% 10.5% 9.54
Both score in both halves 4.8% 5.0% 19.94
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.8% 82.9% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 17.2% 17.1% 5.84
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 51.5% 53.3% 1.88
A half without a goal 48.5% 46.7% 2.14
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.4% 47.4% 47.7% 0.99× 2.11
0-1 goals 26.6% 26.4% 23.5% 1.13× 3.79
4-6 goals 24.4% 22.8% 26.4% 0.87× 4.38
7+ goals 1.7% 1.8% 2.8% 0.65× 55.26
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV to score exactly 1 34.3% 33.9% 32.9% 1.03× 2.95
Cercle Brugge KSV to score exactly 2 24.4% 22.4% 22.4% 1.00× 4.47
Cercle Brugge KSV to score exactly 0 24.2% 22.4% 31.9% 0.70× 4.47
Cercle Brugge KSV to score 3+ 17.1% 19.5% 13.1% 1.49× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven to score exactly 1 36.3% 35.6% 34.6% 1.03× 2.81
OH Leuven to score exactly 0 31.2% 32.6% 22.1% 1.48× 3.06
OH Leuven to score exactly 2 21.2% 23.3% 24.4% 0.95× 4.30
OH Leuven to score 3+ 11.3% 14.3% 19.3% 0.74× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 45.0% 43.3% 2.31
Cercle Brugge KSV leading at HT 29.7% 25.5% 3.93
OH Leuven leading at HT 25.3% 25.3% 3.96
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV -1: 1 57.6% 56.7% 1.76
Cercle Brugge KSV -1: X 21.9% 23.6% 4.24
Cercle Brugge KSV -1: 2 20.5% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (0:1) 69.5% 65.6% 57.1% 1.15× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 17.9% 17.8% 21.0% 0.85× 5.62
OH Leuven (0:1) 12.6% 13.8% 22.1% 0.63× 7.23
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (0:2) 87.4% 87.0% 77.9% 1.12× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 8.6% 7.7% 11.7% 0.66× 12.97
OH Leuven (0:2) 4.0% 3.8% 10.5% 0.36× 26.46
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (0:3) 96.0% 96.6% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.0% 2.4% 6.2% 0.39× 42.01
OH Leuven (0:3) 1.0% 2.4% 4.5% 0.53× 42.10
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (0:4) 99.0% 98.1% 95.5% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.8% 1.2% 2.5% 0.49× 83.38
OH Leuven (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 2.2% 0.55× 83.45
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven (1:0) 57.6% 58.1% 69.1% 0.84× 1.72
Draw (1:0) 21.9% 21.7% 17.6% 1.23× 4.61
Cercle Brugge KSV (1:0) 20.5% 21.7% 13.4% 1.62× 4.61
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven (2:0) 79.5% 80.4% 86.6% 0.93× 1.24
Draw (2:0) 12.8% 10.4% 8.6% 1.20× 9.61
Cercle Brugge KSV (2:0) 7.7% 6.5% 4.9% 1.31× 15.48
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.2% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 26.4% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 26.4% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven to concede 75.8% 75.8% 68.1% 1.11× 1.32
OH Leuven clean sheet 24.2% 24.2% 31.9% 0.76× 4.14
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven clean sheet in 1st half 56.7% 62.9% 1.59
OH Leuven to concede in 1st half 43.3% 37.1% 2.69
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven over 2.5 corners 87.5% 85.2% 1.17
OH Leuven over 3.5 corners 76.0% 76.1% 1.31
OH Leuven under 6.5 corners 64.5% 62.0% 1.61
OH Leuven over 4.5 corners 62.3% 62.0% 1.61
OH Leuven under 5.5 corners 51.7% 53.0% 1.89
OH Leuven over 5.5 corners 48.3% 47.0% 2.13
OH Leuven under 4.5 corners 37.7% 38.0% 2.63
OH Leuven over 6.5 corners 35.5% 38.0% 2.63
OH Leuven under 3.5 corners 24.0% 23.9% 4.19
OH Leuven under 2.5 corners 12.5% 14.8% 6.76
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven under 3.5 goals 96.9% 96.4% 90.9% 1.06× 1.04
OH Leuven under 2.5 goals 88.7% 87.2% 80.7% 1.08× 1.15
OH Leuven over 0.5 goals 68.8% 67.9% 77.9% 0.87× 1.47
OH Leuven under 1.5 goals 67.5% 67.9% 56.5% 1.20× 1.47
OH Leuven over 1.5 goals 32.5% 32.1% 43.5% 0.74× 3.12
OH Leuven under 0.5 goals 31.2% 32.1% 22.1% 1.45× 3.12
OH Leuven over 2.5 goals 11.3% 12.8% 19.3% 0.66× 7.84
OH Leuven over 3.5 goals 3.1% 3.6% 9.1% 0.40× 27.42
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven under 1.5 in 1st half 90.9% 95.4% 1.05
OH Leuven under 0.5 in 1st half 60.6% 64.5% 1.55
OH Leuven over 0.5 in 1st half 39.4% 35.6% 2.81
OH Leuven over 1.5 in 1st half 9.1% 4.6% 21.66
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV (home no bet) 61.0% 60.1% 53.9% 1.12× 1.66
Draw (home no bet) 39.0% 39.9% 46.1% 0.87× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven even goals 54.9% 50.7% 52.6% 0.96× 1.97
OH Leuven odd goals 45.1% 49.3% 47.4% 1.04× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 34.4% 32.6% 3.07
HT 0-1 19.4% 18.9% 5.29
HT 1-0 17.1% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 9.9% 7.1% 14.06
HT 0-2 5.5% 7.1% 14.13
HT 2-0 4.3% 2.2% 44.60
Any other HT score 3.4% 2.2% 44.67
HT 1-2 2.8% 2.2% 44.72
HT 2-1 2.5% 2.2% 44.75
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.2% 44.89
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV at HT / Cercle Brugge KSV at FT 23.2% 22.2% 4.51
OH Leuven at HT / OH Leuven at FT 17.2% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.9% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Cercle Brugge KSV at FT 16.5% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / OH Leuven at FT 11.6% 12.7% 7.90
OH Leuven at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.0% 16.63
Cercle Brugge KSV at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.4% 29.09
OH Leuven at HT / Cercle Brugge KSV at FT 2.7% 3.4% 29.18
Cercle Brugge KSV at HT / OH Leuven at FT 1.7% 3.4% 29.22
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV to score last 50.5% 51.8% 1.93
OH Leuven to score last 41.5% 40.1% 2.50
No goal scored 8.0% 7.4% 13.49
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.0% 92.7% 1.08
Cercle Brugge KSV to lead by 1 at any time 57.9% 55.0% 1.82
OH Leuven to lead by 1 at any time 47.5% 44.0% 2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 44.0% 39.1% 2.56
Cercle Brugge KSV to lead by 2 at any time 26.4% 25.2% 3.97
OH Leuven to lead by 2 at any time 17.8% 14.9% 6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 14.9% 10.5% 9.52
Cercle Brugge KSV to lead by 3 at any time 9.6% 6.6% 15.22
OH Leuven to lead by 3 at any time 5.3% 6.5% 15.44
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV most corners 51.5% 52.9% 1.89
OH Leuven most corners 39.1% 38.6% 2.59
Corners level 9.5% 8.4% 11.88
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.2% 87.4% 86.0% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.0% 78.6% 76.9% 1.02× 1.27
2-6 goals 71.8% 72.4% 73.9% 0.98× 1.38
2-5 goals 68.6% 69.0% 70.2% 0.98× 1.45
1-3 goals 65.9% 69.0% 63.4% 1.09× 1.45
2-4 goals 61.4% 63.5% 61.1% 1.04× 1.58
2-3 goals 47.4% 48.7% 47.7% 1.02× 2.06
3-6 goals 46.1% 48.7% 49.5% 0.98× 2.06
1-2 goals 44.2% 43.6% 40.3% 1.08× 2.29
3-5 goals 43.0% 43.6% 45.8% 0.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 35.7% 39.2% 36.7% 1.07× 2.55
4-6 goals 24.4% 24.5% 26.4% 0.93× 4.09
4-5 goals 21.3% 24.4% 22.7% 1.08× 4.09
5-6 goals 10.4% 14.8% 13.0% 1.14× 6.74
7+ goals 1.7% 2.5% 2.8% 0.91× 39.50
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV never behind 44.5% 48.3% 2.07
OH Leuven never behind 34.1% 35.5% 2.82
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.8% 50.8% 50.0% 1.02× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.2% 49.2% 50.0% 0.98× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.0% 57.8% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.0% 42.2% 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.7% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.3% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.2% 95.5% 93.5% 1.02× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 92.0% 92.3% 92.3% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 87.9% 87.7% 84.4% 1.04× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 73.9% 72.5% 71.0% 1.02× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 73.4% 72.5% 76.5% 0.95× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 52.2% 52.4% 47.8% 1.10× 1.91
Over 2.5 goals 47.8% 47.6% 52.2% 0.91× 2.10
Under 1.5 goals 26.6% 27.5% 23.5% 1.17× 3.64
Over 3.5 goals 26.1% 27.5% 29.0% 0.95× 3.64
Over 4.5 goals 12.1% 12.3% 15.6% 0.79× 8.11
Under 0.5 goals 8.0% 7.7% 7.7% 1.00× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 4.8% 4.5% 6.5% 0.70× 22.17
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.3% 97.3% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.8% 92.5% 92.9% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 86.0% 86.7% 82.0% 1.06× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 66.7% 67.3% 62.2% 1.08× 1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 64.3% 62.2% 69.0% 0.90× 1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 35.7% 37.8% 31.0% 1.22× 2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 33.3% 32.7% 37.8% 0.87× 3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 14.0% 13.3% 18.0% 0.74× 7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.2% 7.5% 7.1% 1.06× 13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.7% 2.7% 2.9% 0.95× 36.40
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.7% 92.7% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 70.9% 71.0% 1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half 65.6% 69.0% 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 34.4% 31.0% 3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half 29.1% 29.0% 3.45
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.3% 7.3% 13.73
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 80.5% 82.9% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.9% 80.0% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 55.1% 54.8% 1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 44.9% 45.2% 2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.1% 20.1% 4.99
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 19.5% 17.1% 5.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven not to score in both halves 80.9% 84.2% 1.19
Cercle Brugge KSV not to score in both halves 75.2% 78.3% 1.28
Cercle Brugge KSV to score in both halves 24.8% 21.7% 4.61
OH Leuven to score in both halves 19.1% 15.8% 6.33
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 52.7% 54.0% 53.7% 1.00× 1.85
Only Cercle Brugge KSV scores 23.2% 22.4% 14.5% 1.54× 4.47
Only OH Leuven scores 16.2% 16.1% 24.4% 0.66× 6.21
Neither team scores 8.0% 7.2% 7.7% 0.93× 13.94
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.6% 25.0% 24.5% 1.02× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 21.7% 22.6% 23.3% 0.97× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 18.6% 17.5% 15.9% 1.10× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 14.0% 12.1% 13.6% 0.89× 8.29
Exactly 0 goals 8.0% 7.6% 7.7% 0.99× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 7.3% 7.6% 9.3% 0.82× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.8% 4.4% 6.5% 0.68× 22.60
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 44.9% 44.6% 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 33.0% 33.8% 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 22.1% 23.4% 4.27
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven not to win both halves 93.3% 94.0% 1.06
Cercle Brugge KSV not to win both halves 88.9% 88.1% 1.14
Cercle Brugge KSV to win both halves 11.1% 11.9% 8.42
OH Leuven to win both halves 6.7% 6.0% 16.63
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cercle Brugge KSV to win either half 55.8% 59.4% 1.69
OH Leuven to win neither half 55.1% 59.3% 1.69
OH Leuven to win either half 44.9% 40.7% 2.46
Cercle Brugge KSV to win neither half 44.2% 40.6% 2.46
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
OH Leuven not to win to nil 83.8% 83.0% 75.6% 1.10× 1.21
Cercle Brugge KSV not to win to nil 76.8% 78.0% 85.5% 0.91× 1.28
Cercle Brugge KSV to win to nil 23.2% 22.0% 14.5% 1.52× 4.55
OH Leuven to win to nil 16.2% 17.0% 24.4% 0.70× 5.88
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.1% 27.8% 26.4% 1.05× 3.59
Cercle Brugge KSV by 1 21.9% 24.1% 17.6% 1.37× 4.14
OH Leuven by 1 17.9% 16.9% 21.0% 0.81× 5.90
Cercle Brugge KSV by 2 12.8% 11.8% 8.6% 1.37× 8.46
OH Leuven by 2 8.6% 7.2% 11.7% 0.62× 13.80
Cercle Brugge KSV by 3+ 7.7% 7.2% 4.9% 1.47× 13.80
OH Leuven by 3+ 4.0% 2.7% 10.5% 0.26× 36.94
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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