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Örgryte IS v GAIS — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 18 October 2026 · SWE-Allsvenskan · 2627

SWE-Allsvenskan results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Örgryte IS win
18.7%
model 17.6%
Draw
22.9%
model 23.4%
GAIS win
58.4%
model 59.0%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (2,277 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.2%
  2. 0-1 10.9%
  3. 0-2 10.7%
  4. 1-2 9.9%
  5. 0-0 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.552.8% Under 2.547.2%
BTTS yes51.5% BTTS no48.5%
Örgryte IS 1+60.2% Örgryte IS 2+23.6%
GAIS 1+84.5% GAIS 2+55.7%

Expected goals 0.92 – 1.87. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
21/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • GAIS carry the stronger rating, 1568 Elo against 1404.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0255 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

GAIS have an estimated 58.4% win probability, against 22.9% for the draw and 18.7% for Örgryte IS. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.92 for Örgryte IS and 1.87 for GAIS.

Why Örgryte IS

Nothing in the data singles out Örgryte IS.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.9%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why GAIS can win

GAIS carry the stronger rating, 1568 Elo against 1404.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Örgryte IS, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for GAIS, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Örgryte IS: 42% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 19.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. GAIS: 53% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

GAIS are the model's most likely outcome at 58.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 0.75–1.96 0-2 13% 51% 46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to win 65.1% 64.9% 36.6% 1.77× 1.54
Draw 21.8% 24.4% 22.9% 1.07× 4.09
Örgryte IS to win 13.0% 13.3% 40.7% 0.33× 7.51
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS & not both score 39.9% 33.2% 18.8% 1.76× 3.01
GAIS & both teams score 25.3% 25.2% 18.1% 1.39× 3.98
Draw & both teams score 14.6% 13.3% 17.8% 0.74× 7.54
Draw & not both score 7.2% 8.4% 5.3% 1.57× 11.93
Örgryte IS & not both score 6.9% 8.4% 23.7% 0.35× 11.93
Örgryte IS & both teams score 6.1% 8.4% 17.3% 0.48× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS & over 1.5 52.6% 48.7% 27.7% 1.76× 2.05
GAIS & under 3.5 43.1% 40.3% 25.4% 1.59× 2.48
GAIS & over 2.5 39.9% 34.9% 22.9% 1.52× 2.87
GAIS & under 2.5 25.2% 26.0% 14.0% 1.86× 3.84
GAIS & over 3.5 22.0% 21.7% 11.5% 1.89× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 17.6% 18.0% 18.1% 1.00× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 17.6% 18.0% 18.1% 1.00× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 14.6% 12.9% 17.8% 0.72× 7.77
GAIS & under 1.5 12.5% 12.9% 9.2% 1.40× 7.77
Örgryte IS & under 3.5 10.5% 12.9% 26.2% 0.49× 7.77
Örgryte IS & over 1.5 8.5% 7.9% 34.6% 0.23× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 7.2% 7.9% 5.3% 1.47× 12.70
Örgryte IS & over 2.5 6.7% 7.9% 25.4% 0.31× 12.70
Örgryte IS & under 2.5 6.4% 7.9% 15.5% 0.51× 12.70
Örgryte IS & under 1.5 4.5% 4.8% 6.4% 0.75× 20.93
Draw & over 2.5 4.3% 4.8% 5.1% 0.94× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 4.3% 4.8% 5.1% 0.94× 20.93
Örgryte IS & over 3.5 2.5% 4.8% 14.8% 0.32× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (1UP) 75.3% 78.5% 1.27
Örgryte IS (1UP) 28.9% 27.1% 3.69
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (2UP) 65.1% 68.3% 1.46
Örgryte IS (2UP) 13.0% 13.4% 7.45
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to win 2nd half 54.6% 52.5% 1.91
2nd half drawn 32.0% 34.5% 2.90
Örgryte IS to win 2nd half 13.4% 12.4% 8.07
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (+2.5) 99.2% 96.3% 88.6% 1.09× 1.04
GAIS (+1.5) 96.2% 96.3% 76.3% 1.26× 1.04
GAIS (+0.5) 87.0% 88.5% 59.3% 1.49× 1.13
GAIS (-0.5) 65.1% 68.7% 36.6% 1.87× 1.46
Örgryte IS (+0.5) 34.9% 31.3% 63.4% 0.49× 3.19
Örgryte IS (-0.5) 13.0% 11.5% 40.7% 0.28× 8.70
Örgryte IS (-1.5) 3.8% 3.7% 23.7% 0.16× 26.83
Örgryte IS (-2.5) 0.8% 3.7% 11.5% 0.32× 27.02
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to concede 52.9% 55.9% 76.1% 0.74× 1.79
GAIS clean sheet 47.1% 44.1% 23.9% 1.84× 2.27
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS clean sheet in 1st half 72.3% 77.7% 1.29
GAIS to concede in 1st half 27.7% 22.3% 4.48
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS over 2.5 corners 88.1% 85.2% 1.17
GAIS over 3.5 corners 76.7% 75.9% 1.32
GAIS under 6.5 corners 64.7% 61.8% 1.62
GAIS over 4.5 corners 62.8% 61.8% 1.62
GAIS under 5.5 corners 51.5% 53.1% 1.88
GAIS over 5.5 corners 48.5% 46.9% 2.13
GAIS under 4.5 corners 37.2% 38.2% 2.62
GAIS over 6.5 corners 35.3% 38.2% 2.62
GAIS under 3.5 corners 23.3% 24.1% 4.16
GAIS under 2.5 corners 11.9% 14.8% 6.75
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS under 3.5 goals 86.5% 87.9% 95.2% 0.92× 1.14
GAIS over 0.5 goals 85.8% 87.9% 71.2% 1.23× 1.14
GAIS under 2.5 goals 68.9% 68.0% 81.7% 0.83× 1.47
GAIS over 1.5 goals 58.2% 59.5% 39.2% 1.52× 1.68
GAIS under 1.5 goals 41.8% 40.5% 60.8% 0.67× 2.47
GAIS over 2.5 goals 31.1% 32.0% 18.3% 1.75× 3.12
GAIS under 0.5 goals 14.2% 12.1% 28.8% 0.42× 8.24
GAIS over 3.5 goals 13.5% 12.1% 4.8% 2.51× 8.25
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS under 1.5 in 1st half 81.5% 83.0% 1.21
GAIS over 0.5 in 1st half 54.3% 56.3% 1.78
GAIS under 0.5 in 1st half 45.8% 43.7% 2.29
GAIS over 1.5 in 1st half 18.5% 17.0% 5.87
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 62.7% 62.1% 36.0% 1.72× 1.61
Örgryte IS (away no bet) 37.3% 37.9% 64.0% 0.59× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS even goals 51.0% 52.8% 53.2% 0.99× 1.89
GAIS odd goals 49.0% 47.2% 46.8% 1.01× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.6% 87.6% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 14.4% 12.4% 8.04
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 63.7% 58.1% 1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals 36.3% 41.9% 2.39
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 59.4% 55.3% 1.81
GAIS to score 2+ in a row 52.1% 51.3% 1.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row 26.1% 25.0% 4.00
GAIS to score 3+ in a row 24.3% 19.6% 5.11
Örgryte IS to score 2+ in a row 11.4% 12.1% 8.23
Örgryte IS to score 3+ in a row 1.9% 2.5% 39.43
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS corners (+3.5) 90.3% 89.6% 1.12
GAIS corners (+2.5) 84.8% 79.7% 1.25
GAIS corners (+1.5) 77.4% 74.9% 1.34
Örgryte IS corners (+3.5) 73.4% 70.7% 1.41
Örgryte IS corners (+2.5) 63.9% 61.9% 1.62
Örgryte IS corners (+1.5) 53.3% 52.5% 1.91
GAIS corners (-1.5) 46.7% 47.5% 2.10
GAIS corners (-2.5) 36.1% 38.1% 2.63
GAIS corners (-3.5) 26.6% 29.3% 3.42
Örgryte IS corners (-1.5) 22.6% 25.1% 3.98
Örgryte IS corners (-2.5) 15.2% 20.3% 4.94
Örgryte IS corners (-3.5) 9.7% 10.4% 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 35.5% 33.7% 2.97
12+ corners 33.4% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 31.0% 33.2% 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 75.0% 72.6% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 74.6% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 66.6% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 64.5% 63.4% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 56.9% 57.8% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 53.7% 53.3% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 46.3% 46.7% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 43.1% 42.2% 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 35.5% 36.6% 2.73
Over 11.5 corners 33.4% 32.3% 3.09
Under 7.5 corners 25.4% 27.4% 3.66
Over 12.5 corners 25.0% 27.4% 3.66
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 12.5% 11.5% 9.2% 1.25× 8.73
0-2 12.7% 11.5% 5.1% 2.25× 8.73
1-1 10.4% 11.5% 13.0% 0.88× 8.73
1-2 9.6% 7.4% 8.1% 0.91× 13.48
0-0 7.2% 7.4% 5.3% 1.39× 13.48
0-3 8.3% 7.4% 3.8% 1.94× 13.48
1-3 6.3% 7.4% 4.8% 1.53× 13.48
Any other score 4.9% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.46
0-4 4.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.47
1-0 4.5% 1.7% 6.4% 0.27× 58.46
1-4 3.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.47
2-0 1.9% 1.7% 9.4% 0.18× 58.48
2-1 3.7% 1.7% 5.9% 0.29× 58.47
2-2 3.6% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.47
2-3 2.4% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.48
2-4 1.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.48
3-0 0.5% 1.7% 5.3% 0.32× 58.49
3-1 0.9% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.48
3-2 0.9% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.48
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.49
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.24× 58.49
4-0 0.1% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.49
4-1 0.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.12× 58.49
4-2 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.36× 58.49
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.49
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.36× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS leading at HT (DNB) 75.5% 77.6% 1.29
Örgryte IS leading at HT (DNB) 24.5% 22.4% 4.46
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS or draw (X2) 87.0% 86.7% 59.3% 1.46× 1.15
Örgryte IS or GAIS (12) 78.2% 75.6% 77.1% 0.98× 1.32
Örgryte IS or draw (1X) 34.9% 35.1% 63.4% 0.55× 2.85
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS or draw at HT 85.9% 88.0% 1.14
Örgryte IS or GAIS at HT 57.8% 56.9% 1.76
Örgryte IS or draw at HT 56.3% 56.9% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS or draw (1UP) 87.0% 91.7% 1.09
Örgryte IS or draw (1UP) 34.9% 39.2% 2.55
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS or draw in 2nd half 86.6% 87.6% 1.14
Örgryte IS or GAIS in 2nd half 68.0% 65.5% 1.53
Örgryte IS or draw in 2nd half 45.4% 47.5% 2.11
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 60.1% 61.5% 1.63
Neither half drawn 39.9% 38.5% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (DNB) 83.3% 80.6% 47.4% 1.70× 1.24
Örgryte IS (DNB) 16.7% 19.4% 52.6% 0.37× 5.14
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to score first 67.0% 69.3% 1.44
Örgryte IS to score first 25.8% 28.0% 3.57
No goal scored 7.2% 7.5% 13.32
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 54.0% 51.4% 47.3% 1.09× 1.95
Both teams to score 46.0% 48.6% 52.7% 0.92× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 38.8% 38.5% 34.4% 1.12× 2.60
Both score & over 2.5 35.6% 38.5% 39.9% 0.96× 2.60
Not both score & over 2.5 15.2% 21.7% 13.2% 1.64× 4.61
Both score & under 2.5 10.4% 12.3% 13.0% 0.95× 8.11
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.9% 85.6% 84.2% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.1% 14.4% 15.8% 0.91× 6.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.7% 75.1% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.3% 24.9% 4.02
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 64.2% 66.6% 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 20.7% 20.7% 4.82
Both score 1st half only 11.5% 10.7% 9.32
Both score in both halves 3.6% 5.0% 19.97
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.9% 82.5% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 15.1% 17.5% 5.71
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 53.7% 53.5% 1.87
A half without a goal 46.3% 46.5% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.1% 47.4% 49.1% 0.97× 2.11
4-6 goals 26.7% 26.4% 26.2% 1.01× 3.78
0-1 goals 24.2% 22.8% 20.4% 1.12× 4.38
7+ goals 2.1% 1.8% 4.8% 0.38× 54.59
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to score 3+ 31.1% 33.8% 18.3% 1.84× 2.96
GAIS to score exactly 1 27.7% 27.4% 32.3% 0.85× 3.65
GAIS to score exactly 2 27.1% 27.4% 21.1% 1.30× 3.65
GAIS to score exactly 0 14.2% 12.8% 28.8% 0.45× 7.80
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Örgryte IS to score exactly 0 47.1% 36.9% 23.9% 1.54× 2.71
Örgryte IS to score exactly 1 35.5% 35.6% 32.8% 1.08× 2.81
Örgryte IS to score exactly 2 13.4% 14.3% 22.1% 0.65× 6.98
Örgryte IS to score 3+ 4.1% 6.2% 21.6% 0.29× 16.18
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS leading at HT 43.7% 43.1% 2.32
Draw at HT 42.2% 43.1% 2.32
Örgryte IS leading at HT 14.1% 12.0% 8.35
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS -1: 2 40.4% 42.7% 2.34
GAIS -1: 1 34.9% 30.1% 3.32
GAIS -1: X 24.8% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (0:1) 87.0% 89.1% 59.3% 1.50× 1.12
Draw (0:1) 9.2% 9.2% 17.3% 0.53× 10.82
Örgryte IS (0:1) 3.8% 5.8% 23.7% 0.24× 17.26
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (0:2) 96.2% 94.1% 76.3% 1.23× 1.06
Draw (0:2) 3.0% 3.8% 12.5% 0.30× 26.58
Örgryte IS (0:2) 0.8% 3.7% 11.5% 0.33× 26.71
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (0:3) 99.2% 96.6% 88.6% 1.09× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 0.7% 2.4% 6.9% 0.34× 42.24
Örgryte IS (0:3) 0.1% 2.4% 4.8% 0.49× 42.26
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (0:4) 99.9% 98.1% 95.2% 1.03× 1.02
Örgryte IS (0:4) 0.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.94× 83.68
Draw (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 3.8% 0.31× 83.67
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (1:0) 40.4% 42.8% 16.5% 2.59× 2.34
Örgryte IS (1:0) 34.9% 30.6% 63.4% 0.48× 3.27
Draw (1:0) 24.8% 21.8% 20.4% 1.07× 4.59
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Örgryte IS (2:0) 59.6% 63.3% 83.5% 0.76× 1.58
Draw (2:0) 20.3% 19.1% 10.4% 1.83× 5.23
GAIS (2:0) 20.1% 19.1% 6.4% 3.00× 5.24
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.4% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 25.9% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 25.7% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Örgryte IS to concede 85.8% 86.0% 71.2% 1.21× 1.16
Örgryte IS clean sheet 14.2% 14.0% 28.8% 0.49× 7.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Örgryte IS to concede in 1st half 54.3% 56.3% 1.78
Örgryte IS clean sheet in 1st half 45.8% 43.7% 2.29
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Örgryte IS under 6.5 corners 81.2% 80.9% 1.24
Örgryte IS over 2.5 corners 77.5% 76.6% 1.31
Örgryte IS under 5.5 corners 70.2% 71.9% 1.39
Örgryte IS over 3.5 corners 61.1% 62.3% 1.61
Örgryte IS under 4.5 corners 55.7% 57.5% 1.74
Örgryte IS over 4.5 corners 44.3% 42.5% 2.35
Örgryte IS under 3.5 corners 38.9% 37.7% 2.65
Örgryte IS over 5.5 corners 29.8% 28.1% 3.56
Örgryte IS under 2.5 corners 22.5% 23.4% 4.27
Örgryte IS over 6.5 corners 18.8% 19.1% 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Örgryte IS under 3.5 goals 99.3% 96.4% 90.6% 1.06× 1.04
Örgryte IS under 2.5 goals 95.9% 96.4% 78.4% 1.23× 1.04
Örgryte IS under 1.5 goals 82.6% 82.1% 56.5% 1.45× 1.22
Örgryte IS over 0.5 goals 52.9% 53.3% 76.1% 0.70× 1.88
Örgryte IS under 0.5 goals 47.1% 46.8% 23.9% 1.95× 2.14
Örgryte IS over 1.5 goals 17.4% 17.9% 43.5% 0.41× 5.59
Örgryte IS over 2.5 goals 4.1% 3.6% 21.6% 0.17× 27.43
Örgryte IS over 3.5 goals 0.7% 3.6% 9.4% 0.39× 27.58
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Örgryte IS under 1.5 in 1st half 95.8% 97.0% 1.03
Örgryte IS under 0.5 in 1st half 72.3% 79.8% 1.25
Örgryte IS over 0.5 in 1st half 27.7% 20.2% 4.96
Örgryte IS over 1.5 in 1st half 4.2% 3.0% 33.40
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (home no bet) 74.9% 66.7% 61.5% 1.08× 1.50
Draw (home no bet) 25.1% 33.3% 38.5% 0.86× 3.01
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Örgryte IS even goals 61.1% 55.9% 53.9% 1.04× 1.79
Örgryte IS odd goals 38.9% 44.1% 46.1% 0.96× 2.27
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 33.2% 32.3% 3.09
HT 0-1 25.8% 28.8% 3.47
HT 1-0 10.6% 10.9% 9.17
HT 0-2 10.1% 10.9% 9.18
HT 1-1 8.5% 7.1% 14.03
Any other HT score 4.9% 2.3% 43.25
HT 1-2 3.3% 2.3% 43.37
HT 2-0 1.7% 2.3% 43.48
HT 2-1 1.4% 2.3% 43.51
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.3% 43.57
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS at HT / GAIS at FT 39.3% 41.2% 2.43
Draw at HT / GAIS at FT 22.7% 21.8% 4.58
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.1% 12.7% 7.88
Örgryte IS at HT / Örgryte IS at FT 6.9% 6.0% 16.68
Draw at HT / Örgryte IS at FT 5.4% 6.0% 16.73
Örgryte IS at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.5% 28.80
GAIS at HT / Draw at FT 3.6% 3.5% 28.82
Örgryte IS at HT / GAIS at FT 3.2% 3.5% 28.84
GAIS at HT / Örgryte IS at FT 0.8% 3.5% 28.93
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to score last 67.1% 70.1% 1.43
Örgryte IS to score last 25.7% 26.8% 3.74
No goal scored 7.2% 7.5% 13.32
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.8% 92.6% 1.08
GAIS to lead by 1 at any time 75.3% 77.9% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 52.5% 50.7% 1.97
GAIS to lead by 2 at any time 45.9% 44.0% 2.27
Örgryte IS to lead by 1 at any time 28.9% 25.5% 3.92
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 23.8% 19.6% 5.09
GAIS to lead by 3 at any time 22.5% 19.6% 5.10
Örgryte IS to lead by 2 at any time 6.8% 6.6% 15.09
Örgryte IS to lead by 3 at any time 1.3% 1.6% 63.05
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS most corners 57.7% 55.5% 1.80
Örgryte IS most corners 31.8% 34.3% 2.92
Corners level 10.5% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.1% 87.4% 86.8% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.0% 78.6% 78.4% 1.00× 1.27
2-6 goals 73.8% 72.4% 75.1% 0.96× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.1% 72.4% 71.8% 1.01× 1.38
1-3 goals 64.0% 63.4% 64.1% 0.99× 1.58
2-4 goals 62.0% 63.4% 63.4% 1.00× 1.58
3-6 goals 48.8% 48.7% 48.3% 1.01× 2.06
2-3 goals 47.1% 48.7% 49.1% 0.99× 2.06
3-5 goals 45.1% 48.7% 45.0% 1.08× 2.06
1-2 goals 42.0% 43.6% 42.0% 1.04× 2.30
3-4 goals 37.0% 39.1% 36.6% 1.07× 2.55
4-6 goals 26.7% 30.2% 26.2% 1.15× 3.31
4-5 goals 23.0% 24.5% 22.9% 1.07× 4.09
5-6 goals 11.7% 14.9% 12.0% 1.24× 6.72
7+ goals 2.1% 2.5% 4.8% 0.53× 39.24
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS never behind 63.9% 67.7% 1.48
Örgryte IS never behind 17.4% 18.6% 5.36
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.7% 50.8% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.3% 49.2% 50.6% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.7% 57.4% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.3% 42.6% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.4% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.6% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.3% 92.3% 91.9% 1.00× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 92.8% 92.3% 94.7% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 86.2% 87.6% 83.5% 1.05× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 75.8% 77.3% 79.6% 0.97× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 71.3% 72.5% 69.2% 1.05× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 50.8% 52.5% 52.9% 0.99× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 49.2% 47.5% 47.1% 1.01× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 28.8% 27.5% 30.8% 0.89× 3.64
Under 1.5 goals 24.2% 22.7% 20.4% 1.11× 4.41
Over 4.5 goals 13.8% 12.4% 16.5% 0.75× 8.09
Under 0.5 goals 7.2% 7.7% 5.3% 1.45× 12.92
Over 5.5 goals 5.7% 7.7% 8.1% 0.95× 12.93
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.9% 97.2% 95.0% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.8% 92.5% 91.1% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 83.8% 81.1% 80.7% 1.00× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 67.8% 67.4% 72.2% 0.93× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 63.1% 62.1% 60.5% 1.03× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 36.9% 37.9% 39.5% 0.96× 2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 32.2% 32.6% 27.8% 1.17× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 16.2% 18.9% 19.3% 0.98× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.2% 7.5% 8.9% 0.85× 13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.1% 2.8% 5.0% 0.55× 36.16
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.9% 89.1% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half 69.6% 69.0% 1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half 66.8% 69.0% 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 33.2% 31.0% 3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half 30.4% 31.0% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.1% 10.9% 9.15
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.7% 79.8% 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 78.3% 79.8% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 52.2% 53.2% 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 47.8% 46.8% 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 21.7% 20.2% 4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.3% 20.2% 4.95
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Örgryte IS not to score in both halves 90.3% 89.8% 1.11
GAIS not to score in both halves 62.5% 63.4% 1.58
GAIS to score in both halves 37.5% 36.6% 2.73
Örgryte IS to score in both halves 9.7% 10.2% 9.79
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 46.0% 50.5% 52.7% 0.96× 1.98
Only GAIS scores 39.9% 39.9% 18.8% 2.12× 2.51
Neither team scores 7.2% 7.2% 5.3% 1.35× 13.91
Only Örgryte IS scores 6.9% 7.2% 23.7% 0.30× 13.91
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.0% 22.6% 27.0% 0.84× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.6% 22.4% 1.01× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 17.0% 17.4% 15.3% 1.14× 5.74
Exactly 4 goals 14.9% 12.1% 14.5% 0.83× 8.27
Exactly 5 goals 8.1% 7.6% 8.7% 0.88× 13.08
Exactly 0 goals 7.2% 7.6% 5.3% 1.43× 13.09
6 or more goals 5.7% 7.6% 8.1% 0.94× 13.09
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 47.8% 45.0% 2.22
1 goal in 2nd half 31.9% 33.4% 2.99
No goals in 2nd half 20.3% 23.0% 4.35
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Örgryte IS not to win both halves 98.1% 97.3% 1.03
GAIS not to win both halves 76.0% 75.1% 1.33
GAIS to win both halves 24.0% 24.9% 4.02
Örgryte IS to win both halves 1.9% 2.7% 36.46
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Örgryte IS to win neither half 74.4% 73.1% 1.37
GAIS to win either half 74.3% 73.1% 1.37
GAIS to win neither half 25.7% 26.9% 3.71
Örgryte IS to win either half 25.6% 26.9% 3.71
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Örgryte IS not to win to nil 93.1% 92.1% 76.3% 1.21× 1.09
GAIS not to win to nil 60.1% 66.7% 81.2% 0.82× 1.50
GAIS to win to nil 39.9% 33.3% 18.8% 1.77× 3.00
Örgryte IS to win to nil 6.9% 8.0% 23.7% 0.34× 12.58
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS by 1 24.8% 24.2% 20.4% 1.19× 4.14
Draw 21.8% 24.1% 22.9% 1.05× 4.14
GAIS by 2 20.3% 24.1% 10.4% 2.31× 4.14
GAIS by 3+ 20.1% 24.1% 6.4% 3.80× 4.14
Örgryte IS by 1 9.2% 7.3% 17.3% 0.42× 13.77
Örgryte IS by 2 3.0% 2.7% 12.5% 0.22× 36.99
Örgryte IS by 3+ 0.8% 2.7% 11.5% 0.24× 37.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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