Osasuna v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 April 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 18
On target
6 – 8
Shots in box
10 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.35 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+0.26 – +0.42
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Osasuna win
45.0%
Draw
24.8%
Girona win
30.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLDWWL last 10
scored 12
from 15.1 xG
conceded 17
from 12.8 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.53–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.49–1.23 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Osasuna 1.74 xGGirona 0.58 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Osasuna attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Osasuna |
Enzo Boyomo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rubén García |
| 15' |
 Girona |
Daley Blind | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 16' |
Osasuna |
Rubén García | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Abel Bretones |
| 19' |
Girona |
Oriol Romeu | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Abel Ruiz |
| 23' |
Girona |
Yangel Herrera | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Abel Ruiz |
| 23' |
Osasuna |
Aimar Oroz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Moncayola |
| 24' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.98 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Osasuna |
Jon Moncayola | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rubén García |
| 31' |
Girona |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Girona |
Arthur | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daley Blind |
| 37' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.23 | From Corner | — | Goal | Aimar Oroz |
| 38' |
Girona |
Abel Ruiz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Daley Blind |
| 40' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abel Ruiz |
| 42' |
Osasuna |
Jesús Areso | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jon Moncayola |
| 43' |
Girona |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 46' |
Osasuna |
Lucas Torró | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jon Moncayola |
| 50' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oriol Romeu |
| 52' |
Girona |
Yáser Asprilla | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oriol Romeu |
| 63' |
Girona |
Yáser Asprilla | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arnau Martinez |
| 67' |
Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daley Blind |
| 70' |
Osasuna |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 72' |
Girona |
Yangel Herrera | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 75' |
Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Iván Martín |
| 78' |
Osasuna |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ante Budimir |
| 81' |
Osasuna |
Iker Muñoz | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kike Barja |
| 82' |
Osasuna |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Areso |
| 87' |
Osasuna |
Jorge Herrando | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ante Budimir |
| 92' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Arthur |
| 94' |
Girona |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daley Blind |
| 94' |
Girona |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Girona |
Yáser Asprilla | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| Arnau Martinez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Daley Blind DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| Yangel Herrera AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Arthur DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| David López DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ladislav Krejcí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Abel Ruiz FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Oriol Romeu DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Viktor Tsygankov AMR | 53 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Yáser Asprilla Sub | 37 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Iván Martín Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Donny van de Beek Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Portu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ante Budimir FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.21 | 0.12 | 1.08 |
| Jesús Areso DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.32 |
| Jon Moncayola MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jorge Herrando DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aimar Oroz MC | 89 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Abel Bretones DL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Lucas Torró MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Rubén García FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Pablo Ibáñez Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Iker Muñoz Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kike Barja Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Juan Cruz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai García Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |