Osasuna v Levante — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 8 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 11
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+0.25 – -0.55
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Osasuna win
52.4%
Draw
23.7%
Levante win
23.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Osasuna are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLLLLLDWW last 10
scored 10
from 14.9 xG
conceded 13
from 11.6 xG
Levante are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WDLWWWLLDW last 10
scored 17
from 17.8 xG
conceded 16
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.66–1.03 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.93–1.42 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 65% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Osasuna 1.75 xGLevante 0.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Osasuna attacking right
Levante attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Osasuna |
Jon Moncayola | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ante Budimir |
| 2' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jon Moncayola |
| 4' |
Osasuna |
Alejandro Catena | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
Osasuna |
Enzo Boyomo | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Levante |
Etta Eyong | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Unai Vencedor |
| 12' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Goal | Rubén García |
| 14' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 18' |
Levante |
Kervin Arriaga | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 22' |
Osasuna |
Jon Moncayola | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Víctor Muñoz |
| 29' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Sánchez |
| 34' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Roger Brugué |
| 35' |
Osasuna |
Rubén García | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jon Moncayola |
| 39' |
Levante |
Alan Matturro | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 44' |
Osasuna |
Aimar Oroz | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jon Moncayola |
| 44' |
Osasuna |
Aimar Oroz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ante Budimir |
| 52' |
Levante |
Jeremy Toljan | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 56' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Levante |
Etta Eyong | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iker Losada |
| 71' |
Levante |
Iker Losada | 0.22 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Iván Romero |
| 79' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Iker Losada |
| 91' |
Levante |
Morales | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ante Budimir FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.77 |
| Jon Moncayola DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 1.26 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Abel Bretones DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Víctor Muñoz AMC | 76 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.12 | 1.25 |
| Aimar Oroz MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.66 | 1.06 |
| Rubén García AMC | 71 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| Iñigo Arguibide DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Torró MC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iker Muñoz Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Cruz Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moi Gómez Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sheraldo Becker Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge Herrando Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Álvarez MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Kervin Arriaga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Alan Matturro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.32 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Iván Romero FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| Etta Eyong FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jorge Cabello DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Unai Vencedor MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.25 |
| Roger Brugué ML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Iker Losada Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| Morales Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Víctor García Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goduine Koyalipou Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |