Osasuna v Real Betis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 12 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 8
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 1
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
1.14 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.53 – +0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Osasuna win
40.0%
Draw
27.0%
Real Betis win
33.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Osasuna are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLLLLLDWW last 10
scored 10
from 14.9 xG
conceded 13
from 11.6 xG
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.48–1.32 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.41–1.33 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Osasuna 1.53 xGReal Betis 0.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Osasuna attacking right
Real Betis attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Héctor Bellerín |
| 11' |
 Osasuna |
Jon Moncayola | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javi Galán |
| 19' |
Osasuna |
Aimar Oroz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Víctor Muñoz |
| 22' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 24' |
Osasuna |
Valentin Rosier | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Rubén García |
| 39' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 54' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iker Muñoz |
| 59' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentin Rosier |
| 60' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javi Galán |
| 72' |
Osasuna |
Iker Muñoz | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 82' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sofyan Amrabat |
| 85' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kike Barja |
| 92' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kike Barja |
| 93' |
Real Betis |
Sofyan Amrabat | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Sofyan Amrabat DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Diego Llorente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentín Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pablo Fornals AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sergi Altimira DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Héctor Bellerín DR | 50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Antony AMR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Aitor Ruibal Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nelson Deossa Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Giovani Lo Celso Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Víctor Muñoz AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| Jon Moncayola DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Iker Muñoz DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| Valentin Rosier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Javi Galán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| Ante Budimir FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Aimar Oroz AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Rubén García AMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.13 |
| Jorge Herrando DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Juan Cruz Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Raul Moro Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raul García Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Kike Barja Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Lucas Torró Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |