Palermo v Padova — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Palermo

09:00

Padova

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 293h before kick-off

Palermo win

62.7%

model 60.9%

Draw

27.2%

model 26.2%

Padova win

10.1%

model 12.9%

632710

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (222 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 14.5%
2-0 13.5%
1-1 12.0%
0-0 10.7%
2-1 9.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	42.3%	Under 2.5	57.7%
BTTS yes	41.3%	BTTS no	58.7%
Palermo 1+	81.8%	Palermo 2+	50.8%
Padova 1+	48.8%	Padova 2+	14.5%

Expected goals 1.70 – 0.67. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

49/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Padova under 0.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 33%

51.9% fair odds 1.93

strong signal · 498 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Padova (0:3)

Handicap 0:3 · usually 93%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 235 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Palermo carry the stronger rating, 1625 Elo against 1452.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Palermo have an estimated 62.7% win probability, against 27.2% for the draw and 10.1% for Padova. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.70 for Palermo and 0.67 for Padova.

Why Palermo

Palermo carry the stronger rating, 1625 Elo against 1452. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.2%. A combined 2.37 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Padova can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Palermo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Padova, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Palermo: 50% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Padova: 40% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Palermo's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Palermo are the model's most likely outcome at 62.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.5%. Confidence 49/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	612613	1.70–0.67	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	592813	1.55–0.59	1-0 17%	36%	37%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo to win	59.4%	54.1%	42.7%	1.27×	1.85
Draw	28.0%	27.9%	32.0%	0.87×	3.59
Padova to win	12.6%	13.3%	25.4%	0.52×	7.52

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo & not both score	42.1%	40.1%	24.0%	1.67×	2.50
Palermo & both teams score	17.2%	17.9%	18.8%	0.95×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	14.9%	13.3%	23.0%	0.58×	7.54
Draw & not both score	13.1%	13.3%	9.1%	1.45×	7.54
Padova & not both score	8.1%	8.4%	13.3%	0.63×	11.93
Padova & both teams score	4.6%	4.9%	12.3%	0.40×	20.55

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo & under 3.5	46.5%	45.2%	32.0%	1.41×	2.21
Palermo & over 1.5	42.6%	40.3%	31.7%	1.27×	2.48
Palermo & under 2.5	30.8%	30.9%	18.5%	1.67×	3.24
Palermo & over 2.5	28.5%	26.0%	24.3%	1.07×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	25.3%	26.0%	23.8%	1.09×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	25.3%	26.0%	23.8%	1.09×	3.84
Palermo & under 1.5	16.7%	18.0%	11.1%	1.61×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	14.9%	12.9%	23.0%	0.56×	7.77
Palermo & over 3.5	12.9%	12.9%	10.8%	1.20×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	13.1%	12.9%	9.1%	1.41×	7.77
Padova & under 3.5	11.2%	12.9%	19.9%	0.65×	7.77
Padova & under 2.5	7.6%	7.9%	10.5%	0.75×	12.70
Padova & over 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	18.8%	0.42×	12.70
Padova & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	6.8%	1.17×	12.70
Padova & over 2.5	5.0%	7.9%	15.0%	0.52×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	2.8%	4.8%	8.4%	0.57×	20.94
Draw & over 3.5	2.8%	4.8%	8.4%	0.57×	20.94
Padova & over 3.5	1.4%	4.8%	5.6%	0.85×	20.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo (1UP)	68.9%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Padova (1UP)	25.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo (2UP)	59.4%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Padova (2UP)	12.6%	13.4%	—	—	7.48

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo to win 2nd half	46.5%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
2nd half drawn	39.7%	36.2%	—	—	2.77
Padova to win 2nd half	13.8%	12.5%	—	—	8.02

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo (+0.5)	87.4%	88.5%	74.6%	1.19×	1.13
Padova (+2.5)	86.1%	88.5%	93.2%	0.95×	1.13
Padova (+1.5)	67.1%	68.7%	80.5%	0.85×	1.46
Palermo (-0.5)	59.4%	57.0%	42.7%	1.34×	1.75
Padova (+0.5)	40.6%	43.0%	57.3%	0.75×	2.33
Palermo (-1.5)	32.9%	31.3%	19.5%	1.60×	3.20
Palermo (-2.5)	13.9%	11.5%	6.8%	1.70×	8.69
Padova (-0.5)	12.6%	11.5%	25.4%	0.45×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to concede	78.9%	79.0%	77.7%	1.02×	1.27
Padova clean sheet	21.1%	21.0%	22.3%	0.94×	4.77

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to concede in 1st half	48.7%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Padova clean sheet in 1st half	51.3%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 6.5 corners	86.9%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Padova under 5.5 corners	77.9%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Padova over 2.5 corners	69.5%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Padova under 4.5 corners	65.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Padova over 3.5 corners	51.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Padova under 3.5 corners	48.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Padova over 4.5 corners	35.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Padova under 2.5 corners	30.5%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Padova over 5.5 corners	22.1%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Padova over 6.5 corners	13.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 3.5 goals	99.7%	97.6%	98.2%	0.99×	1.03
Padova under 2.5 goals	97.7%	97.5%	90.9%	1.07×	1.03
Padova under 1.5 goals	88.0%	87.9%	69.3%	1.27×	1.14
Padova under 0.5 goals	55.2%	59.5%	33.0%	1.80×	1.68
Padova over 0.5 goals	44.8%	40.5%	67.0%	0.61×	2.47
Padova over 1.5 goals	12.0%	12.1%	30.7%	0.40×	8.26
Padova over 2.5 goals	2.3%	2.5%	9.1%	0.27×	40.76
Padova over 3.5 goals	0.3%	2.4%	1.8%	1.40×	40.87

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 1.5 in 1st half	97.6%	95.9%	—	—	1.04
Padova under 0.5 in 1st half	78.9%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Padova over 0.5 in 1st half	21.1%	23.9%	—	—	4.19
Padova over 1.5 in 1st half	2.4%	4.1%	—	—	24.44

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo (away no bet)	67.9%	66.4%	57.1%	1.16×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	32.1%	33.6%	42.9%	0.78×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova even goals	65.2%	64.7%	55.6%	1.16×	1.55
Padova odd goals	34.8%	35.3%	44.4%	0.80×	2.83

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	91.9%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	8.1%	7.5%	—	—	13.30

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	49.2%	50.4%	—	—	1.99
Not both halves under 1.5	50.8%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	47.6%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Palermo to score 2+ in a row	41.4%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.7%	16.3%	—	—	6.12
Palermo to score 3+ in a row	16.5%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Padova to score 2+ in a row	8.3%	5.7%	—	—	17.62
Padova to score 3+ in a row	1.2%	2.5%	—	—	39.88

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo corners (+3.5)	94.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Palermo corners (+2.5)	91.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Palermo corners (+1.5)	85.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Palermo corners (-1.5)	60.6%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Padova corners (+3.5)	59.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Palermo corners (-2.5)	50.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Padova corners (+2.5)	49.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Palermo corners (-3.5)	40.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Padova corners (+1.5)	39.4%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Padova corners (-1.5)	14.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Padova corners (-2.5)	8.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Padova corners (-3.5)	5.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	36.6%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
0-8 corners	33.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	75.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	71.7%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	66.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	63.4%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	56.0%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	54.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	46.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	44.0%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	36.6%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	33.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 12.5 corners	28.3%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Under 7.5 corners	24.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	16.7%	13.8%	11.1%	1.24×	7.27
2-0	14.1%	11.5%	7.5%	1.53×	8.73
0-0	13.1%	11.5%	9.1%	1.25×	8.73
1-1	12.2%	11.5%	14.8%	0.78×	8.73
2-1	8.4%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.48
3-0	7.3%	7.4%	4.0%	1.85×	13.48
0-1	5.5%	7.4%	6.8%	1.10×	13.48
0-2	2.1%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.48
0-3	0.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.76×	58.49
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.28×	58.49
1-2	3.2%	1.7%	7.4%	0.23×	58.47
1-3	0.6%	1.7%	2.6%	0.65×	58.49
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.83×	58.49
2-2	2.5%	1.7%	7.4%	0.23×	58.48
2-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.14×	58.49
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.66×	58.49
3-1	4.3%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.46
3-2	1.3%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.48
3-3	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.52×	58.49
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.4%	4.55×	58.49
4-0	2.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.52×	58.47
4-1	1.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.28×	58.48
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.71×	58.49
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.83×	58.49
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	13.66×	58.49
Any other score	2.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo leading at HT (DNB)	78.2%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Padova leading at HT (DNB)	21.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo or draw (1X)	87.4%	86.7%	74.6%	1.16×	1.15
Palermo or Padova (12)	72.0%	72.1%	68.0%	1.06×	1.39
Padova or draw (X2)	40.6%	45.9%	57.3%	0.80×	2.18

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo or draw at HT	88.6%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Padova or draw at HT	59.0%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Palermo or Padova at HT	52.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo or draw (1UP)	87.4%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Padova or draw (1UP)	40.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo or draw in 2nd half	86.2%	87.5%	—	—	1.14
Palermo or Padova in 2nd half	60.3%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Padova or draw in 2nd half	53.5%	54.6%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.9%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Neither half drawn	33.1%	30.6%	—	—	3.26

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo (DNB)	82.5%	80.5%	62.7%	1.28×	1.24
Padova (DNB)	17.5%	19.5%	37.3%	0.52×	5.13

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo to score first	62.9%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Padova to score first	24.0%	23.2%	—	—	4.32
No goal scored	13.1%	10.3%	—	—	9.72

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	63.3%	56.5%	46.2%	1.22×	1.77
Both teams to score	36.7%	43.5%	53.8%	0.81×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	51.5%	47.0%	37.9%	1.24×	2.13
Both score & over 2.5	24.5%	27.8%	39.2%	0.71×	3.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.2%	12.3%	14.8%	0.84×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	11.8%	12.3%	8.4%	1.47×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	94.5%	89.1%	86.0%	1.04×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	5.5%	10.9%	14.0%	0.78×	9.20

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	81.9%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Both teams to score in 2nd half	18.1%	26.9%	—	—	3.71

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	73.2%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Both score 2nd half only	16.3%	15.6%	—	—	6.42
Both score 1st half only	8.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.66
Both score in both halves	1.8%	4.9%	—	—	20.37

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	89.5%	86.4%	—	—	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	10.5%	13.6%	—	—	7.34

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	56.9%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
A goal in each half	43.1%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.6%	47.4%	48.8%	0.97×	2.11
0-1 goals	35.3%	35.0%	26.8%	1.31×	2.85
4-6 goals	16.4%	20.2%	23.3%	0.87×	4.96
7+ goals	0.7%	1.8%	1.4%	1.33×	54.74

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to score exactly 0	55.2%	51.8%	33.0%	1.57×	1.93
Padova to score exactly 1	32.8%	33.8%	36.4%	0.93×	2.96
Padova to score exactly 2	9.7%	8.5%	21.7%	0.39×	11.80
Padova to score 3+	2.3%	4.5%	9.1%	0.49×	22.15

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo to score exactly 1	32.9%	32.7%	35.9%	0.91×	3.06
Palermo to score exactly 2	25.5%	26.5%	26.0%	1.02×	3.77
Palermo to score exactly 0	21.1%	23.2%	22.3%	1.04×	4.30
Palermo to score 3+	20.5%	23.2%	16.0%	1.45×	4.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Palermo leading at HT	41.0%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Padova leading at HT	11.4%	11.7%	—	—	8.56

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo -1: 2	40.6%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Palermo -1: 1	32.9%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Palermo -1: X	26.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (0:1)	40.6%	42.6%	57.3%	0.74×	2.35
Palermo (0:1)	32.9%	30.0%	19.5%	1.54×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	26.5%	27.0%	23.3%	1.16×	3.71

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (0:2)	67.1%	72.2%	80.5%	0.90×	1.39
Draw (0:2)	19.0%	15.3%	12.9%	1.19×	6.54
Palermo (0:2)	13.9%	11.0%	6.8%	1.62×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (0:3)	86.1%	90.8%	93.2%	0.97×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	9.1%	5.8%	4.6%	1.26×	17.13
Palermo (0:3)	4.8%	2.4%	2.3%	1.06×	42.05

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (0:4)	95.2%	98.1%	97.7%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.4%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	83.28
Palermo (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	1.0%	1.20×	83.52

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo (1:0)	87.4%	86.4%	74.6%	1.16×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	9.3%	6.9%	15.6%	0.44×	14.41
Padova (1:0)	3.4%	3.2%	9.9%	0.32×	31.56

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo (2:0)	96.6%	96.9%	90.1%	1.08×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.8%	2.3%	6.5%	0.35×	44.20
Padova (2:0)	0.6%	2.3%	3.5%	0.64×	44.34

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.8%	49.4%	—	—	2.02
Halves equal	31.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
1st half highest scoring	26.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo clean sheet	55.2%	60.9%	33.0%	1.84×	1.64
Palermo to concede	44.8%	39.1%	67.0%	0.58×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo clean sheet in 1st half	78.9%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Palermo to concede in 1st half	21.1%	21.3%	—	—	4.70

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo over 2.5 corners	91.2%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Palermo over 3.5 corners	82.4%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Palermo over 4.5 corners	71.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Palermo over 5.5 corners	58.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Palermo under 6.5 corners	53.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Palermo over 6.5 corners	46.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Palermo under 5.5 corners	41.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Palermo under 4.5 corners	28.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Palermo under 3.5 corners	17.6%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Palermo under 2.5 corners	8.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.36

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo under 3.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Palermo under 2.5 goals	79.5%	77.8%	84.0%	0.93×	1.29
Palermo over 0.5 goals	78.9%	77.8%	77.7%	1.00×	1.29
Palermo under 1.5 goals	54.0%	53.3%	58.1%	0.92×	1.88
Palermo over 1.5 goals	46.0%	46.7%	41.9%	1.11×	2.14
Palermo under 0.5 goals	21.1%	22.2%	22.3%	1.00×	4.50
Palermo over 2.5 goals	20.5%	22.2%	16.0%	1.39×	4.50
Palermo over 3.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	4.1%	1.88×	12.91

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo under 1.5 in 1st half	85.5%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Palermo over 0.5 in 1st half	48.7%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Palermo under 0.5 in 1st half	51.3%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
Palermo over 1.5 in 1st half	14.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.66

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	68.9%	64.0%	55.8%	1.15×	1.56
Padova (home no bet)	31.1%	36.0%	44.2%	0.81×	2.78

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo even goals	52.2%	50.6%	51.1%	0.99×	1.98
Palermo odd goals	47.8%	49.4%	48.9%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	40.7%	40.5%	—	—	2.47
HT 1-0	26.8%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
HT 0-1	9.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
HT 2-0	9.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
HT 1-1	6.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
Any other HT score	3.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.37
HT 2-1	2.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.45
HT 0-2	1.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.53
HT 1-2	0.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.55
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.59

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo at HT / Palermo at FT	36.2%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
Draw at HT / Palermo at FT	21.3%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	20.4%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Padova at HT / Padova at FT	6.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.71
Draw at HT / Padova at FT	5.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.71
Palermo at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Padova at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Padova at HT / Palermo at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Palermo at HT / Padova at FT	0.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.94

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo to score last	63.2%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Padova to score last	23.7%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
No goal scored	13.1%	9.7%	—	—	10.33

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	86.9%	90.5%	—	—	1.11
Palermo to lead by 1 at any time	68.9%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.3%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Palermo to lead by 2 at any time	36.9%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Padova to lead by 1 at any time	25.9%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.2%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Palermo to lead by 3 at any time	15.4%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Padova to lead by 2 at any time	5.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.16
Padova to lead by 3 at any time	0.9%	1.6%	—	—	63.49

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo most corners	70.4%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Padova most corners	21.0%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	8.6%	8.5%	—	—	11.81

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.7%	83.5%	87.2%	0.96×	1.20
1-4 goals	80.2%	83.5%	82.1%	1.02×	1.20
1-3 goals	69.9%	69.0%	66.5%	1.04×	1.45
2-6 goals	64.0%	63.4%	72.0%	0.88×	1.58
2-5 goals	62.4%	63.4%	69.6%	0.91×	1.58
2-4 goals	58.0%	59.2%	64.5%	0.92×	1.69
1-2 goals	50.6%	53.2%	43.6%	1.22×	1.88
2-3 goals	47.6%	48.7%	48.8%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	35.7%	39.1%	46.2%	0.85×	2.56
3-5 goals	34.1%	35.4%	43.8%	0.81×	2.83
3-4 goals	29.6%	30.3%	38.7%	0.78×	3.31
4-6 goals	16.4%	18.6%	23.3%	0.80×	5.37
4-5 goals	14.8%	14.9%	20.9%	0.71×	6.72
5-6 goals	6.0%	8.7%	7.6%	1.14×	11.46
7+ goals	0.7%	2.5%	1.4%	1.85×	39.31

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palermo never behind	61.0%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Padova never behind	18.1%	18.7%	—	—	5.34

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.5%	50.8%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.5%	49.2%	53.3%	0.92×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.7%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	41.3%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.8%	95.5%	96.2%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	93.3%	92.3%	91.1%	1.01×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	86.9%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	83.0%	82.4%	75.5%	1.09×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	64.7%	61.8%	73.2%	0.84×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	63.7%	61.8%	52.6%	1.18×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	36.3%	38.2%	47.4%	0.81×	2.62
Under 1.5 goals	35.3%	38.2%	26.8%	1.43×	2.62
Over 3.5 goals	17.0%	17.6%	24.5%	0.72×	5.68
Under 0.5 goals	13.1%	12.4%	9.1%	1.35×	8.09
Over 4.5 goals	6.7%	7.7%	8.9%	0.87×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	2.2%	4.5%	3.8%	1.20×	22.23

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.3%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.6%	97.2%	96.0%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	92.5%	92.5%	89.5%	1.03×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	78.9%	75.9%	68.2%	1.11×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	50.7%	51.8%	63.9%	0.81×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	49.3%	48.2%	36.1%	1.34×	2.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	21.1%	24.1%	31.8%	0.76×	4.16
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	7.5%	7.5%	10.5%	0.72×	13.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.4%	2.8%	4.0%	0.70×	36.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.7%	2.8%	1.4%	1.96×	36.20

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.6%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	76.8%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	59.3%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half	40.7%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Over 1.5 in 1st half	23.2%	21.2%	—	—	4.71
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.4%	7.2%	—	—	13.86

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.0%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.6%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	64.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	35.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.4%	22.4%	—	—	4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	13.0%	14.7%	—	—	6.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova not to score in both halves	93.7%	90.6%	—	—	1.10
Palermo not to score in both halves	71.4%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Palermo to score in both halves	28.6%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
Padova to score in both halves	6.3%	9.4%	—	—	10.62

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only Palermo scores	42.1%	46.6%	24.0%	1.94×	2.15
Both teams score	36.7%	39.8%	53.8%	0.74×	2.51
Neither team scores	13.1%	10.9%	9.1%	1.20×	9.14
Only Padova scores	8.1%	7.2%	13.3%	0.54×	13.90

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.3%	25.0%	25.9%	0.96×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	22.3%	22.6%	17.8%	1.27×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	19.3%	17.4%	23.0%	0.76×	5.74
Exactly 0 goals	13.1%	12.1%	9.1%	1.32×	8.27
Exactly 4 goals	10.4%	12.1%	15.8%	0.77×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	4.4%	4.4%	5.3%	0.84×	22.65
6 or more goals	2.2%	4.4%	3.8%	1.17×	22.68

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	35.7%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
1 goal in 2nd half	34.9%	33.5%	—	—	2.98
No goals in 2nd half	29.4%	29.9%	—	—	3.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova not to win both halves	98.3%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Palermo not to win both halves	80.6%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Palermo to win both halves	19.4%	15.9%	—	—	6.28
Padova to win both halves	1.7%	2.7%	—	—	36.57

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to win neither half	76.4%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Palermo to win either half	68.1%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Palermo to win neither half	31.9%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Padova to win either half	23.6%	20.4%	—	—	4.90

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova not to win to nil	91.9%	92.0%	86.7%	1.06×	1.09
Palermo not to win to nil	57.9%	58.9%	76.0%	0.78×	1.70
Palermo to win to nil	42.1%	41.1%	24.0%	1.71×	2.43
Padova to win to nil	8.1%	8.0%	13.3%	0.60×	12.55

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.0%	27.9%	32.0%	0.87×	3.59
Palermo by 1	26.5%	27.8%	23.3%	1.20×	3.59
Palermo by 2	19.0%	16.9%	12.9%	1.31×	5.91
Palermo by 3+	13.9%	11.8%	6.8%	1.75×	8.47
Padova by 1	9.3%	7.3%	15.6%	0.46×	13.77
Padova by 2	2.8%	2.7%	6.5%	0.42×	36.99
Padova by 3+	0.6%	2.7%	3.5%	0.77×	37.06