Palmeiras v Liga de Quito — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · SAM-Libertadores · 2627

SAM-Libertadores results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Palmeiras

18:00

Liga de Quito

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 86h before kick-off

Palmeiras win

54.9%

model 54.6%

Draw

22.6%

model 23.9%

Liga de Quito win

22.5%

model 21.5%

552323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 12.5%
1-1 11.3%
2-0 10.2%
2-1 9.6%
0-1 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	48.3%	Under 2.5	51.7%
BTTS yes	49.2%	BTTS no	50.8%
Palmeiras 1+	81.1%	Palmeiras 2+	49.6%
Liga de Quito 1+	61.0%	Liga de Quito 2+	24.3%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.94. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

37/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

2-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 64%

73.5% fair odds 1.36

moderate signal · 2591 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Liga de Quito not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Palmeiras carry the stronger rating, 1725 Elo against 1610.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Palmeiras have an estimated 54.9% win probability, against 22.6% for the draw and 22.5% for Liga de Quito. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.67 for Palmeiras and 0.94 for Liga de Quito.

Why Palmeiras

Palmeiras carry the stronger rating, 1725 Elo against 1610.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Liga de Quito can win

Nothing in the data singles out Liga de Quito.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Palmeiras, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Liga de Quito, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Palmeiras: 51% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Liga de Quito: 56% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Palmeiras are the model's most likely outcome at 54.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.5%. Confidence 37/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	552421	1.67–0.94	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	542522	1.61–0.92	1-0 13%	46%	48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win	53.6%	51.5%	48.0%	1.07×	1.94
Draw	24.5%	24.4%	25.2%	0.97×	4.09
Liga de Quito to win	21.9%	24.4%	27.2%	0.90×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras & not both score	31.9%	29.7%	31.9%	0.93×	3.36
Palmeiras & both teams score	21.6%	21.9%	16.4%	1.33×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	16.8%	17.9%	16.1%	1.11×	5.58
Liga de Quito & not both score	12.3%	13.2%	18.1%	0.73×	7.55
Liga de Quito & both teams score	9.6%	8.4%	9.4%	0.89×	11.94
Draw & not both score	7.7%	8.4%	9.4%	0.89×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras & over 1.5	40.5%	40.3%	32.9%	1.22×	2.48
Palmeiras & under 3.5	38.3%	34.9%	35.9%	0.97×	2.86
Palmeiras & over 2.5	30.3%	30.9%	24.2%	1.28×	3.24
Palmeiras & under 2.5	23.3%	21.6%	24.2%	0.90×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	19.3%	18.0%	22.8%	0.79×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.3%	18.0%	22.8%	0.79×	5.56
Liga de Quito & under 3.5	17.5%	18.0%	22.5%	0.80×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.8%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.56
Palmeiras & over 3.5	15.3%	18.0%	12.4%	1.45×	5.56
Liga de Quito & over 1.5	14.3%	12.9%	16.8%	0.77×	7.77
Palmeiras & under 1.5	13.0%	12.9%	15.4%	0.83×	7.78
Liga de Quito & over 2.5	10.9%	12.9%	12.8%	1.01×	7.78
Liga de Quito & under 2.5	11.0%	12.9%	14.8%	0.87×	7.78
Draw & under 1.5	7.7%	7.9%	9.4%	0.84×	12.69
Liga de Quito & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	10.7%	0.73×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.9%	2.7%	2.93×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	2.7%	2.93×	12.69
Liga de Quito & over 3.5	4.4%	4.8%	5.0%	0.95×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (1UP)	66.2%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Liga de Quito (1UP)	38.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2UP)	53.6%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Liga de Quito (2UP)	21.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win 2nd half	42.5%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
2nd half drawn	36.1%	36.0%	—	—	2.77
Liga de Quito to win 2nd half	21.4%	22.9%	—	—	4.36

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito (+2.5)	88.0%	88.5%	90.3%	0.98×	1.13
Palmeiras (+0.5)	78.1%	78.5%	72.8%	1.08×	1.27
Liga de Quito (+1.5)	71.6%	73.7%	77.2%	0.95×	1.36
Palmeiras (-0.5)	53.6%	52.4%	48.0%	1.09×	1.91
Liga de Quito (+0.5)	46.4%	47.6%	52.0%	0.92×	2.10
Palmeiras (-1.5)	28.4%	26.3%	22.8%	1.15×	3.80
Liga de Quito (-0.5)	21.9%	21.5%	27.2%	0.79×	4.65
Palmeiras (-2.5)	12.0%	11.5%	9.7%	1.18×	8.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito to concede	79.9%	79.0%	72.8%	1.09×	1.27
Liga de Quito clean sheet	20.1%	21.0%	27.2%	0.77×	4.77

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito to concede in 1st half	49.9%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Liga de Quito clean sheet in 1st half	50.2%	49.0%	—	—	2.04

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito under 6.5 corners	80.2%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Liga de Quito over 2.5 corners	74.2%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Liga de Quito under 5.5 corners	70.1%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Liga de Quito over 3.5 corners	58.3%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Liga de Quito under 4.5 corners	57.0%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Liga de Quito over 4.5 corners	43.0%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Liga de Quito under 3.5 corners	41.7%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Liga de Quito over 5.5 corners	29.9%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
Liga de Quito under 2.5 corners	25.8%	27.7%	—	—	3.62
Liga de Quito over 6.5 corners	19.8%	19.1%	—	—	5.24

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito under 3.5 goals	98.5%	97.6%	97.7%	1.00×	1.03
Liga de Quito under 2.5 goals	93.3%	92.4%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Liga de Quito under 1.5 goals	76.4%	76.2%	76.8%	0.99×	1.31
Liga de Quito over 0.5 goals	60.3%	62.9%	59.1%	1.07×	1.59
Liga de Quito under 0.5 goals	39.7%	37.1%	40.9%	0.91×	2.70
Liga de Quito over 1.5 goals	23.6%	23.8%	23.2%	1.03×	4.20
Liga de Quito over 2.5 goals	6.7%	7.6%	7.7%	0.99×	13.08
Liga de Quito over 3.5 goals	1.5%	2.4%	2.3%	1.04×	41.12

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito under 1.5 in 1st half	94.6%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Liga de Quito under 0.5 in 1st half	69.1%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Liga de Quito over 0.5 in 1st half	30.9%	31.9%	—	—	3.13
Liga de Quito over 1.5 in 1st half	5.4%	5.8%	—	—	17.31

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (away no bet)	68.6%	66.5%	65.6%	1.01×	1.50
Draw (away no bet)	31.4%	33.5%	34.4%	0.97×	2.99

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito even goals	57.9%	56.9%	58.4%	0.98×	1.76
Liga de Quito odd goals	42.1%	43.1%	41.6%	1.03×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.6%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.29

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.3%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.7%	40.0%	—	—	2.50

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.1%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
Palmeiras to score 2+ in a row	40.8%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.2%	16.5%	—	—	6.08
Liga de Quito to score 2+ in a row	16.9%	16.4%	—	—	6.10
Palmeiras to score 3+ in a row	15.8%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
Liga de Quito to score 3+ in a row	3.6%	2.6%	—	—	37.91

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras corners (+3.5)	91.6%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Palmeiras corners (+2.5)	87.3%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Palmeiras corners (+1.5)	81.6%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Liga de Quito corners (+3.5)	61.5%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Palmeiras corners (-1.5)	56.8%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Liga de Quito corners (+2.5)	52.5%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Palmeiras corners (-2.5)	47.5%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Liga de Quito corners (+1.5)	43.2%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Palmeiras corners (-3.5)	38.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Liga de Quito corners (-1.5)	18.4%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Liga de Quito corners (-2.5)	12.7%	15.8%	—	—	6.32
Liga de Quito corners (-3.5)	8.4%	11.4%	—	—	8.81

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	43.7%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
0-8 corners	29.4%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
9-11 corners	26.9%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	78.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	70.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	64.5%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Over 9.5 corners	61.7%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 11.5 corners	56.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	52.5%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Under 10.5 corners	47.5%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 11.5 corners	43.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	38.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 12.5 corners	35.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Under 8.5 corners	29.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	21.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.28

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	13.0%	11.5%	15.4%	0.74×	8.73
1-1	11.6%	11.5%	13.8%	0.83×	8.73
2-0	10.3%	11.4%	9.1%	1.26×	8.73
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.46
0-0	7.7%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.46
0-1	7.6%	7.4%	10.7%	0.69×	13.46
1-2	5.5%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.46
3-0	5.5%	7.4%	4.7%	1.58×	13.46
3-1	5.1%	7.4%	3.7%	2.01×	13.46
0-2	3.4%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.57
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.59
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.59
1-3	1.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.70×	58.58
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.09×	58.59
2-2	4.4%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.57
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.58
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.54×	58.59
3-2	2.3%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.58
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.70×	58.59
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.54×	58.59
4-0	2.2%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.58
4-1	2.0%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.58
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.3%	1.27×	58.59
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.09×	58.59
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.09×	58.59
Any other score	2.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.70×	58.58

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras leading at HT (DNB)	68.8%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Liga de Quito leading at HT (DNB)	31.2%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw (1X)	78.1%	75.6%	72.8%	1.04×	1.32
Palmeiras or Liga de Quito (12)	75.5%	75.6%	74.8%	1.01×	1.32
Liga de Quito or draw (X2)	46.4%	48.5%	52.0%	0.93×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw at HT	82.5%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Liga de Quito or draw at HT	61.5%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Palmeiras or Liga de Quito at HT	56.0%	56.8%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw (1UP)	78.1%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Liga de Quito or draw (1UP)	46.4%	52.2%	—	—	1.92

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw in 2nd half	78.6%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
Palmeiras or Liga de Quito in 2nd half	63.9%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Liga de Quito or draw in 2nd half	57.5%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.5%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	35.5%	38.4%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (DNB)	71.0%	71.4%	63.8%	1.12×	1.40
Liga de Quito (DNB)	29.0%	28.6%	36.2%	0.79×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score first	58.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Liga de Quito to score first	33.7%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
No goal scored	7.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.51

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	52.0%	51.5%	58.7%	0.88×	1.94
Both teams to score	48.0%	48.5%	41.3%	1.18×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.0%	41.5%	47.7%	0.87×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	36.4%	38.5%	27.9%	1.38×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	11.6%	12.3%	13.8%	0.90×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	10.0%	8.4%	11.4%	0.73×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.7%	85.7%	90.6%	0.95×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.3%	14.3%	9.4%	1.52×	6.99

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.6%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.4%	25.4%	—	—	3.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	21.5%	21.1%	—	—	4.74
Both score 1st half only	11.4%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
Both score in both halves	3.9%	5.0%	—	—	20.12

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.6%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	15.4%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
A half without a goal	49.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.8%	47.4%	46.0%	1.03×	2.11
0-1 goals	28.4%	26.4%	34.9%	0.76×	3.78
4-6 goals	23.4%	22.8%	18.8%	1.21×	4.38
7+ goals	1.5%	1.8%	1.0%	1.80×	55.28

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito to score exactly 0	39.7%	36.0%	40.9%	0.88×	2.78
Liga de Quito to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	36.2%	0.99×	2.78
Liga de Quito to score exactly 2	16.9%	19.5%	15.8%	1.24×	5.12
Liga de Quito to score 3+	6.7%	8.5%	7.7%	1.10×	11.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score exactly 1	32.2%	32.6%	35.2%	0.93×	3.06
Palmeiras to score exactly 2	25.9%	26.5%	20.5%	1.29×	3.77
Palmeiras to score 3+	21.8%	23.3%	17.8%	1.31×	4.30
Palmeiras to score exactly 0	20.1%	23.3%	27.2%	0.86×	4.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.0%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Palmeiras leading at HT	38.5%	37.8%	—	—	2.64
Liga de Quito leading at HT	17.5%	15.9%	—	—	6.31

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras -1: 2	46.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Palmeiras -1: 1	28.4%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Palmeiras -1: X	25.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito (0:1)	46.4%	45.9%	52.0%	0.88×	2.18
Palmeiras (0:1)	28.4%	27.0%	22.8%	1.18×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	25.2%	27.0%	25.5%	1.06×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito (0:2)	71.6%	75.5%	77.2%	0.98×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	16.4%	15.3%	13.4%	1.14×	6.53
Palmeiras (0:2)	12.0%	11.0%	9.7%	1.13×	9.09

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito (0:3)	88.0%	90.8%	90.3%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.9%	5.8%	6.0%	0.96×	17.22
Palmeiras (0:3)	4.1%	2.4%	4.0%	0.59×	41.96

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito (0:4)	95.9%	98.1%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.9%	1.2%	3.7%	0.33×	83.13
Palmeiras (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	0.7%	1.79×	83.33

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (1:0)	78.1%	78.5%	72.8%	1.08×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	14.6%	12.8%	18.8%	0.68×	7.80
Liga de Quito (1:0)	7.3%	6.9%	8.7%	0.79×	14.49

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2:0)	92.7%	93.9%	91.3%	1.03×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.4%	6.4%	5.4%	1.20×	15.51
Liga de Quito (2:0)	1.9%	2.3%	3.7%	0.61×	44.29

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.8%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	25.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to concede	60.3%	63.3%	59.1%	1.07×	1.58
Palmeiras clean sheet	39.7%	36.7%	40.9%	0.90×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras clean sheet in 1st half	69.1%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Palmeiras to concede in 1st half	30.9%	31.6%	—	—	3.17

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras over 2.5 corners	90.5%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Palmeiras over 3.5 corners	81.9%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Palmeiras over 4.5 corners	71.2%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Palmeiras over 5.5 corners	59.6%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Palmeiras under 6.5 corners	51.8%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Palmeiras over 6.5 corners	48.2%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Palmeiras under 5.5 corners	40.4%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Palmeiras under 4.5 corners	28.8%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Palmeiras under 3.5 corners	18.1%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
Palmeiras under 2.5 corners	9.5%	11.8%	—	—	8.50

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras under 3.5 goals	92.1%	92.2%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Palmeiras over 0.5 goals	79.9%	77.7%	72.8%	1.07×	1.29
Palmeiras under 2.5 goals	78.2%	77.7%	82.2%	0.95×	1.29
Palmeiras under 1.5 goals	52.3%	53.3%	62.1%	0.86×	1.88
Palmeiras over 1.5 goals	47.7%	46.7%	37.9%	1.23×	2.14
Palmeiras over 2.5 goals	21.8%	22.3%	17.8%	1.25×	4.49
Palmeiras under 0.5 goals	20.1%	22.3%	27.2%	0.82×	4.49
Palmeiras over 3.5 goals	7.9%	7.8%	6.4%	1.22×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras under 1.5 in 1st half	84.8%	84.8%	—	—	1.18
Palmeiras over 0.5 in 1st half	49.9%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
Palmeiras under 0.5 in 1st half	50.2%	48.9%	—	—	2.04
Palmeiras over 1.5 in 1st half	15.2%	15.2%	—	—	6.58

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	52.8%	51.6%	48.1%	1.07×	1.94
Liga de Quito (home no bet)	47.2%	48.4%	51.9%	0.93×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras even goals	52.0%	50.6%	53.4%	0.95×	1.98
Palmeiras odd goals	48.0%	49.4%	46.6%	1.06×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.6%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
HT 1-0	24.0%	24.3%	—	—	4.12
HT 0-1	12.8%	11.1%	—	—	9.04
HT 1-1	8.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 2-0	8.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.09
Any other HT score	3.9%	2.2%	—	—	44.63
HT 2-1	3.1%	2.2%	—	—	44.70
HT 0-2	2.4%	2.2%	—	—	44.75
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.2%	—	—	44.81
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.2%	—	—	44.90

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras at HT / Palmeiras at FT	32.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Draw at HT / Palmeiras at FT	18.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Liga de Quito at HT / Liga de Quito at FT	10.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Liga de Quito at FT	9.5%	6.1%	—	—	16.51
Palmeiras at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.4%	—	—	29.09
Liga de Quito at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.4%	—	—	29.12
Liga de Quito at HT / Palmeiras at FT	2.4%	3.4%	—	—	29.19
Palmeiras at HT / Liga de Quito at FT	1.4%	3.4%	—	—	29.23

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score last	58.5%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Liga de Quito to score last	33.7%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	7.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.51

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.3%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Palmeiras to lead by 1 at any time	66.2%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	45.2%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
Liga de Quito to lead by 1 at any time	38.1%	34.8%	—	—	2.88
Palmeiras to lead by 2 at any time	34.1%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.7%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Palmeiras to lead by 3 at any time	14.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Liga de Quito to lead by 2 at any time	11.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Liga de Quito to lead by 3 at any time	2.7%	1.6%	—	—	63.18

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras most corners	66.0%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Liga de Quito most corners	25.6%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
Corners level	8.4%	8.4%	—	—	11.90

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.9%	87.4%	87.6%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.0%	83.5%	81.5%	1.02×	1.20
2-6 goals	70.1%	72.4%	64.4%	1.12×	1.38
1-3 goals	67.4%	69.0%	71.5%	0.97×	1.45
2-5 goals	67.2%	69.0%	62.1%	1.11×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.4%	63.5%	56.0%	1.13×	1.58
2-3 goals	46.8%	48.7%	46.0%	1.06×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.9%	48.7%	52.0%	0.94×	2.06
3-6 goals	44.9%	43.6%	38.3%	1.14×	2.29
3-5 goals	42.0%	43.6%	35.9%	1.21×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.1%	39.2%	29.9%	1.31×	2.55
4-6 goals	23.4%	24.5%	18.8%	1.30×	4.09
4-5 goals	20.5%	24.4%	16.4%	1.49×	4.09
5-6 goals	9.8%	8.8%	8.7%	1.00×	11.43
7+ goals	1.5%	2.5%	1.0%	2.51×	39.51

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras never behind	54.1%	62.7%	—	—	1.59
Liga de Quito never behind	26.1%	29.9%	—	—	3.35

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	48.3%	1.05×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	51.7%	0.95×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.5%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.6%	95.5%	96.6%	0.99×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.3%	92.3%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.7%	87.7%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	75.1%	77.4%	80.5%	0.96×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	71.6%	72.5%	65.1%	1.11×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.6%	52.4%	61.1%	0.86×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	46.4%	47.6%	38.9%	1.22×	2.10
Under 1.5 goals	28.4%	27.5%	34.9%	0.79×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	24.9%	22.6%	19.5%	1.16×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	11.3%	12.3%	9.4%	1.31×	8.12
Under 0.5 goals	7.7%	7.7%	9.4%	0.82×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	4.4%	4.5%	3.4%	1.34×	22.18

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.5%	97.3%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.3%	97.2%	96.4%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	87.0%	86.7%	89.6%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	68.3%	67.3%	75.8%	0.89×	1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	62.0%	62.1%	52.7%	1.18×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	38.0%	37.9%	47.3%	0.80×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	31.7%	32.7%	24.2%	1.35×	3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.0%	13.3%	10.4%	1.27×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.7%	2.8%	3.6%	0.77×	36.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.5%	2.7%	1.0%	2.66×	36.40

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.8%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.4%	71.1%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.4%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.6%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.6%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.2%	7.3%	—	—	13.76

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.7%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.1%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.9%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.1%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.9%	20.1%	—	—	4.98
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.3%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito not to score in both halves	86.9%	85.9%	—	—	1.17
Palmeiras not to score in both halves	70.1%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Palmeiras to score in both halves	29.9%	25.8%	—	—	3.87
Liga de Quito to score in both halves	13.2%	14.1%	—	—	7.07

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	48.0%	50.4%	41.3%	1.22×	1.99
Only Palmeiras scores	31.9%	33.4%	31.9%	1.05×	3.00
Only Liga de Quito scores	12.3%	10.9%	18.1%	0.60×	9.14
Neither team scores	7.7%	7.2%	9.4%	0.76×	13.94

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.3%	25.0%	26.5%	0.94×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.5%	22.6%	19.8%	1.14×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	20.6%	22.6%	25.8%	0.88×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	13.6%	12.1%	10.4%	1.16×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	7.7%	7.6%	9.4%	0.81×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	6.9%	7.6%	6.4%	1.19×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.4%	4.4%	3.4%	1.32×	22.60

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	43.1%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
1 goal in 2nd half	34.0%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	22.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito not to win both halves	96.3%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Palmeiras not to win both halves	83.7%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Palmeiras to win both halves	16.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.36
Liga de Quito to win both halves	3.7%	2.8%	—	—	35.18

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito to win neither half	64.9%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
Palmeiras to win either half	64.7%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
Palmeiras to win neither half	35.3%	34.6%	—	—	2.89
Liga de Quito to win either half	35.1%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liga de Quito not to win to nil	87.7%	88.2%	81.9%	1.08×	1.13
Palmeiras not to win to nil	68.1%	69.6%	68.1%	1.02×	1.44
Palmeiras to win to nil	31.9%	30.4%	31.9%	0.95×	3.30
Liga de Quito to win to nil	12.3%	11.8%	18.1%	0.65×	8.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras by 1	25.2%	27.8%	25.5%	1.09×	3.59
Draw	24.5%	24.1%	25.2%	0.96×	4.14
Palmeiras by 2	16.4%	16.9%	13.4%	1.26×	5.90
Liga de Quito by 1	14.6%	11.8%	18.8%	0.63×	8.46
Palmeiras by 3+	12.0%	11.8%	9.7%	1.21×	8.46
Liga de Quito by 2	5.4%	7.2%	5.4%	1.35×	13.81
Liga de Quito by 3+	1.9%	2.7%	3.7%	0.73×	37.01