Paris FC v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 18
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 15
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
1.58 – 1.14
Goals − xG
+0.18 – -0.71
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris FC win
23.9%
Draw
20.2%
Marseille win
55.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris FC are conceding fewer than expected — 3.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWLWLWDW last 10
scored 21
from 21.2 xG
conceded 9
from 12.0 xG
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLWLDLWWWL last 10
scored 14
from 22.5 xG
conceded 14
from 14.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.08–1.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–2.02 | 1-2 9% | 66% | 65% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris FC 1.82 xGMarseille 2.71 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris FC attacking right
Marseille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 2' |
 Paris FC |
Jean-Phillipe Krasso | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Timothée Kolodziejczak |
| 8' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alimami Gory |
| 8' |
Paris FC |
Otávio | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 14' |
Marseille |
Leonardo Balerdi | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ethan Nwaneri |
| 14' |
Marseille |
Leonardo Balerdi | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Ethan Nwaneri |
| 14' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Leonardo Balerdi |
| 17' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 21' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Naif Aguerd |
| 26' |
Paris FC |
Jean-Phillipe Krasso | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nhoa Sangui |
| 37' |
Marseille |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
Marseille |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 39' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ethan Nwaneri |
| 44' |
Marseille |
Naif Aguerd | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ethan Nwaneri |
| 48' |
Marseille |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Igor Paixão |
| 48' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 51' |
Paris FC |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Phillipe Krasso |
| 52' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.71 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mason Greenwood |
| 61' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 73' |
Marseille |
Leonardo Balerdi | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Mason Greenwood |
| 75' |
Paris FC |
Luca Koleosho | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Otávio |
| 75' |
Paris FC |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.37 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Paris FC |
Jonathan Ikone | 0.42 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Mamadou Mbow |
| 90' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 93' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Greenwood AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.59 |
| Leonardo Balerdi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| Naif Aguerd DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.42 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Facundo Medina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Timothy Weah DMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 0.49 |
| Igor Paixão DML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.27 |
| Quinten Timber MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang FW | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Ethan Nwaneri AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| Amine Gouiri Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Hamed Junior Traore Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bilal Nadir Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Vermeeren Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amir Murillo Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilan Kebbal MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Otávio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Timothée Kolodziejczak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Nhoa Sangui DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Mamadou Mbow DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Adama Camara MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jean-Phillipe Krasso FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Moses Simon ML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Alimami Gory DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Maxime Lopez MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marshall Munetsi Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jonathan Ikone Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Koleosho Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tuomas Ollila Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Willem Geubbels Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |