Paris FC v Nice — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 10
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.32 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.31 – -1.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris FC win
36.6%
Draw
24.8%
Nice win
38.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris FC are conceding fewer than expected — 3.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWLWLWDW last 10
scored 21
from 21.2 xG
conceded 9
from 12.0 xG
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDDLDDL last 10
scored 5
from 10.6 xG
conceded 15
from 20.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.35–1.40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.52–1.59 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 62% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris FC 1.31 xGNice 1.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris FC attacking right
Nice attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 7' |
 Paris FC |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Paris FC |
Ciro Immobile | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre Lees-Melou |
| 25' |
Paris FC |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.59 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 25' |
Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thibault De Smet |
| 35' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Nice |
Kojo Peprah Oppong | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Juma Bah |
| 50' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marshall Munetsi |
| 51' |
Paris FC |
Jonathan Ikone | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ciro Immobile |
| 51' |
Paris FC |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' |
Paris FC |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Moses Simon |
| 59' |
Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Nice |
Morgan Sanson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 62' |
Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 67' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabin Bernardeau |
| 69' |
Paris FC |
Jean-Phillipe Krasso | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 70' |
Paris FC |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Moses Simon |
| 72' |
Nice |
Gabin Bernardeau | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Paris FC |
Jonathan Ikone | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adama Camara |
| 84' |
Paris FC |
Jean-Phillipe Krasso | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Rudy Matondo |
| 85' |
Paris FC |
Jean-Phillipe Krasso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Paris FC |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 87' |
Paris FC |
Adama Camara | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Nice |
Gabin Bernardeau | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kail Boudache |
| 91' |
Nice |
Melvin Bard | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maxime Dupé |
Players
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kojo Peprah Oppong DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Jonathan Clauss DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.56 | 1.09 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Melvin Bard DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Morgan Sanson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| Maxime Dupé GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Charles Vanhoutte DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Tom Louchet AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Sofiane Diop AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Omoruyi FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kail Boudache Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Gabin Bernardeau Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Tiago Gouveia Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tanguy NDombele Alvaro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall Munetsi DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.04 | 0.75 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Adama Camara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Thibault De Smet DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Mamadou Mbow DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Moses Simon AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| Jonathan Ikone AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ciro Immobile FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Ilan Kebbal AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jean-Phillipe Krasso Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Rudy Matondo Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Nhoa Sangui Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alimami Gory Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vincent Marchetti Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |