Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 10 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Paris Saint Germain

09:00

Le Mans

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 821h before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain win

83.1%

model 82.0%

Draw

10.1%

model 10.9%

Le Mans win

6.8%

model 7.2%

83107

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (19 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

3-0 8.4%
3-1 8.1%
2-0 7.5%
2-1 7.3%
4-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	80.2%	Under 2.5	19.8%
BTTS yes	59.9%	BTTS no	40.1%
Paris Saint Germain 1+	96.4%	Paris Saint Germain 2+	84.5%
Le Mans 1+	62.1%	Le Mans 2+	25.3%

Expected goals 3.33 – 0.97. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Either team to lead by 3 at any time

Lead at any time · usually 20%

50.7% fair odds 1.97

strong signal · 1166 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Le Mans not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 78%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger rating, 1808 Elo against 1603.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Paris Saint Germain have an estimated 83.1% win probability, against 10.1% for the draw and 6.8% for Le Mans. Expected goals from the ensemble are 3.33 for Paris Saint Germain and 0.97 for Le Mans.

Why Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger rating, 1808 Elo against 1603.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 10.1%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Le Mans can win

Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Paris Saint Germain were missing 1.59 expected goal involvements a match against 0.20.

Key players

Paris Saint Germain's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bradley Barcola (0.47), Ousmane Dembélé (0.46), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (0.46). Le Mans's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Louis Mafouta (0.65), Dame Gueye (0.36), Lucas Buades (0.21).

Availability

2 of Paris Saint Germain's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Paris Saint Germain: 68% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.44 xG a match from set pieces. Le Mans: 47% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Paris Saint Germain are the model's most likely outcome at 83.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 3-0 at 8.4%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWDWWLDDL last 10 scored 16 from 19.8 xG conceded 10 from 12.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	82117	3.33–0.97	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	8595	3.46–0.85	3-0 9%	80%	56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win	87.0%	87.7%	45.6%	1.92×	1.14
Draw	8.1%	8.2%	22.8%	0.36×	12.15
Le Mans to win	4.8%	5.6%	31.8%	0.18×	17.81

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain & both teams score	48.4%	43.1%	22.0%	1.96×	2.32
Paris Saint Germain & not both score	38.7%	33.2%	23.7%	1.40×	3.01
Draw & both teams score	7.3%	8.4%	16.4%	0.51×	11.93
Le Mans & both teams score	3.5%	4.9%	15.9%	0.31×	20.58
Le Mans & not both score	1.4%	4.8%	16.1%	0.30×	20.64
Draw & not both score	0.9%	4.8%	6.6%	0.74×	20.66

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain & over 1.5	83.6%	77.5%	35.7%	2.17×	1.29
Paris Saint Germain & over 2.5	77.2%	74.6%	28.2%	2.64×	1.34
Paris Saint Germain & over 3.5	63.1%	54.7%	16.8%	3.25×	1.83
Paris Saint Germain & under 3.5	23.9%	21.7%	28.9%	0.75×	4.62
Paris Saint Germain & under 2.5	9.8%	7.9%	17.5%	0.45×	12.69
Draw & over 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	16.4%	0.48×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	4.1%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.93
Draw & under 2.5	4.0%	4.8%	16.5%	0.29×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	4.1%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.93
Draw & under 3.5	4.0%	4.8%	16.5%	0.29×	20.93
Le Mans & over 1.5	4.0%	4.8%	25.6%	0.19×	20.93
Paris Saint Germain & under 1.5	3.4%	4.8%	10.0%	0.48×	20.94
Le Mans & over 2.5	3.6%	4.8%	20.0%	0.24×	20.94
Le Mans & under 3.5	2.8%	4.8%	20.7%	0.23×	20.94
Le Mans & over 3.5	2.1%	4.8%	11.2%	0.43×	20.95
Le Mans & under 2.5	1.2%	4.8%	12.0%	0.40×	20.95
Draw & under 1.5	0.9%	4.8%	6.6%	0.73×	20.95
Le Mans & under 1.5	0.8%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (1UP)	92.8%	94.5%	58.0%	1.63×	1.06
Le Mans (1UP)	22.7%	22.9%	49.6%	0.46×	4.37

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2UP)	87.0%	89.8%	47.1%	1.91×	1.11
Le Mans (2UP)	4.8%	6.6%	34.2%	0.19×	15.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win 2nd half	72.9%	75.6%	42.1%	1.80×	1.32
2nd half drawn	18.4%	19.1%	31.2%	0.61×	5.25
Le Mans to win 2nd half	8.7%	7.9%	26.8%	0.30×	12.63

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (+0.5)	95.2%	96.3%	68.2%	1.41×	1.04
Paris Saint Germain (-0.5)	87.0%	88.5%	45.6%	1.94×	1.13
Paris Saint Germain (-1.5)	73.0%	73.7%	25.0%	2.95×	1.36
Paris Saint Germain (-2.5)	54.7%	52.4%	10.0%	5.24×	1.91
Le Mans (+2.5)	45.3%	47.6%	90.0%	0.53×	2.10
Le Mans (+1.5)	27.0%	26.3%	75.0%	0.35×	3.80
Le Mans (+0.5)	13.0%	11.5%	54.4%	0.21×	8.70
Le Mans (-0.5)	4.8%	3.7%	31.8%	0.12×	26.76

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Le Mans to concede	97.8%	96.5%	77.5%	1.25×	1.04
Le Mans clean sheet	2.2%	3.5%	22.5%	0.15×	28.85

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Le Mans to concede in 1st half	82.4%	82.5%	47.7%	1.73×	1.21
Le Mans clean sheet in 1st half	17.6%	17.5%	52.3%	0.33×	5.72

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Le Mans under 6.5 corners	94.6%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Le Mans under 5.5 corners	89.6%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Le Mans under 4.5 corners	81.2%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Le Mans under 3.5 corners	68.0%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Le Mans over 2.5 corners	50.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Le Mans under 2.5 corners	49.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Le Mans over 3.5 corners	32.0%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Le Mans over 4.5 corners	18.8%	18.5%	—	—	5.39
Le Mans over 5.5 corners	10.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Le Mans over 6.5 corners	5.4%	9.9%	—	—	10.08

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Le Mans under 3.5 goals	98.5%	97.5%	93.4%	1.04×	1.03
Le Mans under 2.5 goals	93.3%	92.3%	84.6%	1.09×	1.08
Le Mans under 1.5 goals	76.2%	76.2%	63.2%	1.21×	1.31
Le Mans over 0.5 goals	60.4%	62.9%	69.9%	0.90×	1.59
Le Mans under 0.5 goals	39.6%	37.1%	30.1%	1.23×	2.70
Le Mans over 1.5 goals	23.8%	23.8%	36.8%	0.65×	4.21
Le Mans over 2.5 goals	6.7%	7.7%	15.4%	0.50×	13.04
Le Mans over 3.5 goals	1.5%	2.5%	6.6%	0.37×	40.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Le Mans under 1.5 in 1st half	94.4%	94.2%	87.2%	1.08×	1.06
Le Mans under 0.5 in 1st half	68.4%	68.4%	57.3%	1.19×	1.46
Le Mans over 0.5 in 1st half	31.6%	31.6%	42.7%	0.74×	3.16
Le Mans over 1.5 in 1st half	5.6%	5.8%	12.8%	0.45×	17.39

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (away no bet)	91.4%	92.1%	66.7%	1.38×	1.09
Draw (away no bet)	8.6%	7.9%	33.3%	0.24×	12.67

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Le Mans even goals	57.8%	56.9%	56.3%	1.01×	1.76
Le Mans odd goals	42.2%	43.1%	43.7%	0.99×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	54.2%	56.7%	83.0%	0.68×	1.76
Both halves over 1.5 goals	45.8%	43.3%	17.0%	2.54×	2.31

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	90.0%	91.5%	65.5%	1.40×	1.09
Both halves under 1.5 goals	10.0%	8.5%	34.5%	0.25×	11.75

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	87.8%	89.5%	60.2%	1.49×	1.12
Paris Saint Germain to score 2+ in a row	84.5%	81.5%	38.1%	2.14×	1.23
Either team to score 3+ in a row	62.5%	59.9%	22.6%	2.65×	1.67
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+ in a row	61.3%	59.8%	14.0%	4.26×	1.67
Le Mans to score 2+ in a row	12.0%	12.2%	28.1%	0.43×	8.22
Le Mans to score 3+ in a row	1.8%	2.5%	9.2%	0.28×	39.47

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain corners (+3.5)	97.5%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Paris Saint Germain corners (+2.5)	95.5%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Paris Saint Germain corners (+1.5)	92.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Paris Saint Germain corners (-1.5)	72.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Paris Saint Germain corners (-2.5)	62.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Paris Saint Germain corners (-3.5)	52.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Le Mans corners (+3.5)	47.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Le Mans corners (+2.5)	37.5%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Le Mans corners (+1.5)	28.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Le Mans corners (-1.5)	7.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Le Mans corners (-2.5)	4.5%	4.3%	—	—	23.53
Le Mans corners (-3.5)	2.5%	4.2%	—	—	23.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
12+ corners	31.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	26.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	68.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	67.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	60.7%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.8%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	51.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	48.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	42.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	39.3%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 7.5 corners	32.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	31.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	24.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	33.0%	23.8%	5.1%	4.62×	4.21
3-0	8.1%	7.4%	3.7%	1.98×	13.48
3-1	7.6%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.48
4-0	7.7%	7.4%	1.7%	4.32×	13.48
4-1	7.2%	7.4%	2.0%	3.66×	13.48
2-0	6.4%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.48
2-1	6.0%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.48
0-0	0.9%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.48
0-1	0.8%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.49
0-2	0.4%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.49
0-3	0.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.49
0-4	0.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.49
1-0	3.4%	1.7%	10.0%	0.17×	58.47
1-1	3.1%	1.7%	10.1%	0.17×	58.47
1-2	1.5%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.48
1-3	0.4%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.49
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.49
2-2	2.8%	1.7%	4.8%	0.35×	58.47
2-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.49
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.49
3-2	3.5%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.47
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.48
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.49
4-2	3.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.47
4-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.48
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT (DNB)	90.5%	89.3%	53.2%	1.68×	1.12
Le Mans leading at HT (DNB)	9.5%	10.7%	46.8%	0.23×	9.31

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw (1X)	95.2%	94.4%	68.2%	1.38×	1.06
Paris Saint Germain or Le Mans (12)	91.9%	91.8%	77.2%	1.19×	1.09
Le Mans or draw (X2)	13.0%	12.3%	54.4%	0.23×	8.10

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw at HT	92.5%	90.3%	71.1%	1.27×	1.11
Paris Saint Germain or Le Mans at HT	78.6%	79.9%	61.5%	1.30×	1.25
Le Mans or draw at HT	28.9%	30.8%	67.2%	0.46×	3.25

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw (1UP)	95.2%	96.8%	72.5%	1.33×	1.03
Le Mans or draw (1UP)	22.7%	24.3%	62.2%	0.39×	4.12

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw in 2nd half	91.3%	92.1%	73.2%	1.26×	1.09
Paris Saint Germain or Le Mans in 2nd half	81.6%	80.9%	68.8%	1.18×	1.24
Le Mans or draw in 2nd half	27.1%	24.4%	57.9%	0.42×	4.10

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	64.2%	61.7%	43.2%	1.43×	1.62
A half drawn	35.8%	38.4%	56.8%	0.68×	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (DNB)	94.7%	93.4%	58.9%	1.59×	1.07
Le Mans (DNB)	5.3%	6.6%	41.1%	0.16×	15.13

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score first	79.7%	81.3%	49.3%	1.65×	1.23
Le Mans to score first	19.4%	18.9%	44.3%	0.43×	5.28
No goal scored	0.9%	4.2%	6.6%	0.64×	23.81

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.1%	54.9%	54.0%	1.02×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.9%	45.1%	46.0%	0.98×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	56.0%	47.2%	44.0%	1.07×	2.12
Not both score & over 2.5	29.0%	33.6%	10.5%	3.22×	2.98
Not both score & under 2.5	11.9%	12.3%	35.7%	0.35×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	3.1%	4.6%	10.1%	0.45×	21.82

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.8%	80.0%	84.7%	0.94×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	21.2%	20.0%	15.3%	1.31×	4.99

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	63.2%	66.1%	69.9%	0.95×	1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half	36.8%	33.9%	30.1%	1.13×	2.95

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	46.7%	53.3%	57.4%	0.93×	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	27.2%	26.5%	23.7%	1.12×	3.77
Both score 1st half only	16.5%	15.6%	12.6%	1.23×	6.41
Both score in both halves	9.6%	6.8%	6.6%	1.04×	14.61

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.0%	80.0%	81.0%	0.99×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	26.0%	20.0%	19.0%	1.05×	5.00

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	81.5%	80.0%	59.4%	1.35×	1.25
A half without a goal	18.5%	20.0%	40.6%	0.49×	5.00

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	49.9%	47.4%	30.7%	1.54×	2.11
2-3 goals	25.6%	26.4%	43.4%	0.61×	3.78
7+ goals	19.4%	20.2%	3.6%	5.63×	4.95
0-1 goals	5.1%	7.6%	22.6%	0.33×	13.24

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Le Mans to score exactly 0	39.6%	36.0%	30.1%	1.20×	2.78
Le Mans to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	33.2%	1.08×	2.78
Le Mans to score exactly 2	17.0%	19.6%	21.5%	0.91×	5.11
Le Mans to score 3+	6.7%	8.5%	15.4%	0.55×	11.83

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+	73.0%	66.0%	22.9%	2.88×	1.52
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 2	16.2%	18.9%	23.1%	0.82×	5.29
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 1	8.5%	10.3%	31.8%	0.32×	9.71
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 0	2.2%	6.1%	22.5%	0.27×	16.39

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT	71.1%	69.2%	32.8%	2.11×	1.45
Draw at HT	21.4%	20.1%	38.5%	0.52×	4.98
Le Mans leading at HT	7.5%	9.7%	28.9%	0.34×	10.31

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain -1: 1	73.0%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Paris Saint Germain -1: X	14.1%	14.0%	—	—	7.16
Paris Saint Germain -1: 2	13.0%	13.9%	—	—	7.18

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:1)	73.0%	71.1%	25.0%	2.85×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	14.1%	13.9%	20.7%	0.67×	7.22
Le Mans (0:1)	13.0%	13.8%	54.4%	0.25×	7.22

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:2)	54.7%	58.6%	10.0%	5.87×	1.71
Le Mans (0:2)	27.0%	23.7%	75.0%	0.32×	4.21
Draw (0:2)	18.2%	15.3%	15.1%	1.01×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Le Mans (0:3)	45.3%	48.2%	90.0%	0.54×	2.07
Paris Saint Germain (0:3)	36.3%	32.5%	4.1%	8.02×	3.07
Draw (0:3)	18.4%	16.1%	6.1%	2.65×	6.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Le Mans (0:4)	63.7%	68.8%	95.9%	0.72×	1.45
Paris Saint Germain (0:4)	21.2%	16.6%	1.6%	10.65×	6.02
Draw (0:4)	15.1%	10.1%	2.7%	3.82×	9.88

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (1:0)	95.2%	93.7%	68.2%	1.37×	1.07
Draw (1:0)	3.4%	3.2%	15.1%	0.21×	31.55
Le Mans (1:0)	1.4%	3.1%	16.8%	0.19×	31.89

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2:0)	98.6%	97.0%	83.2%	1.17×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	1.1%	2.3%	9.8%	0.23×	44.31
Le Mans (2:0)	0.3%	2.3%	7.2%	0.31×	44.36

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.3%	48.2%	47.3%	1.02×	2.08
1st half highest scoring	32.1%	28.8%	26.8%	1.07×	3.47
Halves equal	18.6%	19.1%	26.1%	0.73×	5.24

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to concede	60.4%	63.4%	69.9%	0.91×	1.58
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet	39.6%	36.6%	30.1%	1.22×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet in 1st half	68.4%	68.7%	57.3%	1.20×	1.46
Paris Saint Germain to concede in 1st half	31.6%	31.3%	42.7%	0.73×	3.19

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 corners	90.2%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 corners	81.7%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Paris Saint Germain over 4.5 corners	71.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Paris Saint Germain over 5.5 corners	60.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Paris Saint Germain under 6.5 corners	50.8%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Paris Saint Germain over 6.5 corners	49.2%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Paris Saint Germain under 5.5 corners	39.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Paris Saint Germain under 4.5 corners	28.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 corners	18.3%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 corners	9.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 goals	97.8%	96.4%	77.5%	1.24×	1.04
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 goals	89.2%	87.3%	45.9%	1.90×	1.15
Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 goals	73.0%	74.2%	22.9%	3.23×	1.35
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 goals	52.4%	53.2%	8.3%	6.44×	1.88
Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 goals	47.6%	46.8%	91.7%	0.51×	2.14
Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 goals	27.0%	25.8%	77.1%	0.34×	3.87
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 goals	10.8%	12.7%	54.1%	0.24×	7.86
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 goals	2.2%	3.6%	22.5%	0.16×	27.51

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 in 1st half	82.4%	84.2%	47.7%	1.76×	1.19
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 in 1st half	48.2%	50.9%	87.4%	0.58×	1.97
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 in 1st half	51.8%	49.1%	12.6%	3.89×	2.04
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 in 1st half	17.6%	15.8%	52.3%	0.30×	6.35

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	62.7%	60.2%	41.7%	1.44×	1.66
Le Mans (home no bet)	37.3%	39.8%	58.3%	0.68×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain even goals	50.0%	50.6%	51.3%	0.99×	1.98
Paris Saint Germain odd goals	50.0%	49.4%	48.7%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other HT score	25.7%	28.8%	4.7%	6.15×	3.48
HT 1-0	20.9%	24.1%	21.1%	1.14×	4.15
HT 2-0	18.2%	18.7%	6.6%	2.86×	5.34
HT 0-0	12.0%	10.9%	28.5%	0.38×	9.16
HT 1-1	8.0%	7.1%	9.5%	0.75×	14.04
HT 2-1	6.9%	7.1%	3.3%	2.17×	14.05
HT 0-1	4.6%	2.3%	16.8%	0.14×	43.27
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.50
HT 2-2	1.3%	2.3%	0.8%	2.95×	43.51
HT 0-2	0.9%	2.3%	5.5%	0.42×	43.55

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	68.2%	68.5%	27.5%	2.50×	1.46
Draw at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	15.6%	16.7%	14.8%	1.13×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	12.9%	0.27×	28.81
Le Mans at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	3.2%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.84
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Draw at FT	2.3%	3.5%	3.9%	0.89×	28.87
Le Mans at HT / Le Mans at FT	2.4%	3.5%	19.3%	0.18×	28.87
Draw at HT / Le Mans at FT	1.9%	3.5%	11.1%	0.31×	28.89
Le Mans at HT / Draw at FT	1.9%	3.5%	6.2%	0.55×	28.89
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Le Mans at FT	0.6%	3.5%	1.7%	2.01×	28.94

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score last	79.6%	78.0%	53.2%	1.47×	1.28
Le Mans to score last	19.5%	13.7%	40.4%	0.34×	7.31
No goal scored	0.9%	4.2%	6.6%	0.64×	23.81

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	99.1%	95.7%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 1 at any time	92.8%	92.6%	58.0%	1.60×	1.08
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	82.4%	87.2%	51.3%	1.70×	1.15
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 2 at any time	78.5%	78.3%	29.5%	2.66×	1.28
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	60.0%	55.2%	20.1%	2.74×	1.81
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 3 at any time	59.1%	55.2%	11.9%	4.65×	1.81
Le Mans to lead by 1 at any time	22.7%	19.6%	49.6%	0.40×	5.10
Le Mans to lead by 2 at any time	4.7%	1.7%	22.0%	0.08×	59.72
Le Mans to lead by 3 at any time	0.9%	1.6%	8.4%	0.19×	63.49

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain most corners	80.4%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Le Mans most corners	12.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.61
Corners level	6.8%	8.5%	—	—	11.82

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	75.5%	78.6%	73.9%	1.06×	1.27
1-5 goals	65.9%	68.9%	85.0%	0.81×	1.45
3-6 goals	65.6%	68.9%	50.9%	1.36×	1.45
2-5 goals	61.7%	63.4%	69.0%	0.92×	1.58
3-5 goals	51.8%	53.2%	45.9%	1.16×	1.88
4-6 goals	49.9%	48.7%	30.7%	1.58×	2.06
1-4 goals	48.3%	48.7%	76.4%	0.64×	2.06
2-4 goals	44.1%	43.6%	60.4%	0.72×	2.30
4-5 goals	36.1%	39.1%	25.7%	1.52×	2.56
3-4 goals	34.2%	35.4%	37.3%	0.95×	2.83
5-6 goals	31.4%	35.4%	13.7%	2.58×	2.83
1-3 goals	29.8%	30.3%	59.4%	0.51×	3.31
2-3 goals	25.6%	30.2%	43.4%	0.70×	3.31
7+ goals	19.4%	18.6%	3.6%	5.19×	5.37
1-2 goals	14.1%	14.9%	39.3%	0.38×	6.72

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain never behind	76.4%	76.2%	50.4%	1.51×	1.31
Le Mans never behind	6.3%	3.8%	42.0%	0.09×	26.15

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.8%	47.3%	1.08×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.2%	52.7%	0.93×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	50.8%	51.6%	51.6%	1.00×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	49.2%	48.4%	48.4%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.3%	52.0%	49.5%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.7%	48.0%	50.5%	0.95×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	99.1%	95.5%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	94.9%	92.3%	77.4%	1.19×	1.08
Over 2.5 goals	85.0%	82.4%	54.3%	1.52×	1.21
Over 3.5 goals	69.3%	66.2%	34.2%	1.94×	1.51
Under 5.5 goals	66.8%	66.2%	91.4%	0.72×	1.51
Over 4.5 goals	50.8%	52.5%	17.2%	3.06×	1.91
Under 4.5 goals	49.2%	47.5%	82.8%	0.57×	2.10
Over 5.5 goals	33.2%	33.8%	8.6%	3.94×	2.96
Under 3.5 goals	30.7%	33.8%	65.8%	0.51×	2.96
Under 2.5 goals	15.0%	17.6%	45.7%	0.39×	5.68
Under 1.5 goals	5.1%	7.7%	22.6%	0.34×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	0.9%	4.5%	6.6%	0.69×	22.25

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	94.4%	92.5%	70.6%	1.31×	1.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	82.2%	81.1%	42.8%	1.89×	1.23
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	77.5%	75.9%	96.2%	0.79×	1.32
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	62.3%	62.1%	20.7%	3.00×	1.61
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	59.7%	55.5%	90.6%	0.61×	1.80
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	40.3%	44.5%	9.4%	4.74×	2.25
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	37.7%	37.9%	79.3%	0.48×	2.64
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	22.5%	24.1%	3.8%	6.37×	4.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	17.8%	18.9%	57.2%	0.33×	5.28
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	5.6%	7.5%	29.4%	0.26×	13.28

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	88.0%	89.0%	71.5%	1.25×	1.12
Under 2.5 in 1st half	64.6%	63.7%	87.2%	0.73×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	62.5%	63.6%	33.9%	1.88×	1.57
Under 1.5 in 1st half	37.5%	36.4%	66.1%	0.55×	2.75
Over 2.5 in 1st half	35.4%	36.3%	12.8%	2.84×	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	12.0%	11.0%	28.5%	0.39×	9.09

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	92.6%	89.4%	81.4%	1.10×	1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	73.4%	77.7%	48.7%	1.60×	1.29
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	51.8%	53.2%	75.4%	0.71×	1.88
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	48.2%	46.8%	24.6%	1.90×	2.14
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	26.6%	22.3%	51.3%	0.43×	4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	7.4%	10.6%	18.6%	0.57×	9.42

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Le Mans not to score in both halves	86.7%	85.7%	77.4%	1.11×	1.17
Paris Saint Germain to score in both halves	71.9%	73.8%	32.0%	2.31×	1.36
Paris Saint Germain not to score in both halves	28.1%	26.2%	68.0%	0.39×	3.81
Le Mans to score in both halves	13.3%	14.3%	22.6%	0.63×	7.01

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.1%	58.4%	54.0%	1.08×	1.71
Only Paris Saint Germain scores	38.7%	39.9%	23.7%	1.68×	2.51
Only Le Mans scores	1.4%	4.6%	16.1%	0.28×	21.94
Neither team scores	0.9%	4.6%	6.6%	0.70×	21.96

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	33.2%	25.3%	8.6%	2.95×	3.95
Exactly 4 goals	18.5%	17.4%	17.2%	1.02×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	17.5%	17.4%	8.7%	2.00×	5.74
Exactly 3 goals	15.7%	17.4%	20.3%	0.86×	5.74
Exactly 2 goals	9.9%	7.6%	23.2%	0.33×	13.08
Exactly 1 goals	4.2%	4.4%	16.2%	0.27×	22.65
Exactly 0 goals	0.9%	4.4%	6.6%	0.67×	22.71

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	73.4%	69.9%	48.7%	1.44×	1.43
1 goal in 2nd half	19.3%	17.2%	32.9%	0.52×	5.81
No goals in 2nd half	7.4%	10.0%	18.6%	0.54×	9.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Le Mans not to win both halves	99.4%	97.3%	90.6%	1.07×	1.03
Paris Saint Germain not to win both halves	48.1%	52.6%	83.3%	0.63×	1.90
Paris Saint Germain to win both halves	51.9%	47.4%	16.7%	2.84×	2.11
Le Mans to win both halves	0.6%	2.7%	9.4%	0.29×	37.04

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win either half	92.2%	93.2%	58.2%	1.60×	1.07
Le Mans to win neither half	84.5%	83.3%	53.7%	1.55×	1.20
Le Mans to win either half	15.5%	16.7%	46.3%	0.36×	6.00
Paris Saint Germain to win neither half	7.8%	6.8%	41.8%	0.16×	14.78

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Le Mans not to win to nil	98.6%	96.2%	83.9%	1.15×	1.04
Paris Saint Germain not to win to nil	61.3%	66.7%	76.3%	0.87×	1.50
Paris Saint Germain to win to nil	38.7%	33.3%	23.7%	1.40×	3.01
Le Mans to win to nil	1.4%	3.8%	16.1%	0.23×	26.59

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain by 3+	54.7%	47.2%	10.0%	4.72×	2.12
Paris Saint Germain by 2	18.2%	16.9%	15.1%	1.12×	5.91
Paris Saint Germain by 1	14.1%	11.8%	20.7%	0.57×	8.47
Draw	8.1%	7.3%	22.8%	0.32×	13.78
Le Mans by 1	3.4%	2.7%	15.1%	0.18×	36.97
Le Mans by 2	1.1%	2.7%	9.8%	0.27×	37.05
Le Mans by 3+	0.3%	2.7%	7.2%	0.38×	37.07