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Paris Saint Germain v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 2 November 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

Paris Saint Germain
1–0
2.77 – 0.80 xG
Lens
Shots
18 – 13
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
13 – 11
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-1.80 – -0.80
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.43.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Ousmane Dembélé 3' — goal
Paris Saint Germain 2.80 xGLens 0.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Ousmane Dembélé 3' — Goal (0.89 xG, Open Play)Adrien Thomasson 6' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jhoanner Chávez 6' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Marco Asensio 13' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Fabián 14' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Ousmane Dembélé 14' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Anass Zaroury 21' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Fabián 29' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Deiver Machado 31' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Bradley Barcola 34' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Marco Asensio 34' — Saved Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Kevin Danso 35' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Anass Zaroury 37' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Achraf Hakimi 40' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Marco Asensio 41' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Marco Asensio 42' — Saved Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Bradley Barcola 48' — Missed Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Andy Diouf 52' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Kevin Danso 52' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Andy Diouf 64' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Lee Kang-In 66' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Andy Diouf 67' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Hamzat Ojediran 67' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Neil El Aynaoui 68' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Bradley Barcola 71' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Achraf Hakimi 74' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Désiré Doué 75' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Warren Zaïre-Emery 75' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Nuno Mendes 76' — Saved Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Désiré Doué 77' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Andy Diouf 78' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)
Paris Saint Germain attacking right Lens attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Paris Saint Germain Ousmane Dembélé 0.89 Open Play Right Foot Goal Bradley Barcola
6' Lens Adrien Thomasson 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
6' Lens Jhoanner Chávez 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Adrien Thomasson
13' Paris Saint Germain Marco Asensio 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Achraf Hakimi
14' Paris Saint Germain Fabián 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Achraf Hakimi
14' Paris Saint Germain Ousmane Dembélé 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Marco Asensio
21' Lens Anass Zaroury 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot M'Bala Nzola
29' Paris Saint Germain Fabián 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Bradley Barcola
31' Lens Deiver Machado 0.07 Open Play — Saved Shot Jhoanner Chávez
34' Paris Saint Germain Bradley Barcola 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
34' Paris Saint Germain Marco Asensio 0.36 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot João Neves
35' Lens Kevin Danso 0.06 From Corner — Blocked Shot Anass Zaroury
37' Lens Anass Zaroury 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Andy Diouf
40' Paris Saint Germain Achraf Hakimi 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Bradley Barcola
41' Paris Saint Germain Marco Asensio 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Bradley Barcola
42' Paris Saint Germain Marco Asensio 0.29 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Bradley Barcola
48' Paris Saint Germain Bradley Barcola 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Fabián
52' Lens Andy Diouf 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot M'Bala Nzola
52' Lens Kevin Danso 0.09 Open Play — Missed Shot Adrien Thomasson
64' Lens Andy Diouf 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Anass Zaroury
66' Paris Saint Germain Lee Kang-In 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Fabián
67' Lens Andy Diouf 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
67' Lens Hamzat Ojediran 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
68' Lens Neil El Aynaoui 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
71' Paris Saint Germain Bradley Barcola 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Désiré Doué
74' Paris Saint Germain Achraf Hakimi 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Vitinha
75' Paris Saint Germain Désiré Doué 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Warren Zaïre-Emery
75' Paris Saint Germain Warren Zaïre-Emery 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Désiré Doué
76' Paris Saint Germain Nuno Mendes 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lee Kang-In
77' Paris Saint Germain Désiré Doué 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot João Neves
78' Lens Andy Diouf 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Anass Zaroury

Players

Paris Saint Germain

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Bradley Barcola FWL 90 0 1 3 5 0.41 1.36 1.02
Nuno Mendes DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.14 0.00 0.49
Achraf Hakimi DR 90 0 0 2 2 0.08 0.21 0.51
William Pacho DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.69
João Neves MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.43 1.10
Matvey Safonov GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.38
Marquinhos DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.76
Vitinha MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.90
Marco Asensio FW 76 0 0 4 1 0.82 0.04 1.27
Fabián MC 76 0 0 2 2 0.19 0.33 1.01
Ousmane Dembélé FWR 66 1 0 2 0 0.93 0.00 1.03
Lee Kang-In Sub 24 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.14 0.17
Désiré Doué Sub 14 0 0 2 2 0.18 0.06 0.35
Warren Zaïre-Emery Sub 14 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.11 0.25

Lens

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Kevin Danso DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.15 0.00 0.16
Deiver Machado DML 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.17
Jhoanner Chávez DMR 90 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.07 0.14
Brice Samba GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
M'Bala Nzola FW 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.09 0.16
Andy Diouf MC 85 0 0 4 1 0.20 0.11 0.36
Anass Zaroury FWL 85 0 0 2 3 0.14 0.17 0.38
Hamzat Ojediran Sub 71 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.18
Adrien Thomasson MC 68 0 0 1 2 0.07 0.16 0.23
Jonathan Gradit DC 68 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Abduqodir Khusanov DC 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Neil El Aynaoui Sub 22 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.18
Malang Sarr Sub 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Florian Sotoca FWR 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
David Pereira Da Costa Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Remy Labeau Lascary Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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