Paris Saint Germain v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 16 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 7
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 5
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.71 – -0.69
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris Saint Germain win
67.2%
Draw
16.6%
Lille win
16.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.25–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.45–0.99 | 2-0 10% | 67% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris Saint Germain 1.29 xGLille 0.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris Saint Germain attacking right
Lille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Lille |
Ethan Mbappé | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 1' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 5' |
Lille |
Ethan Mbappé | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Vitinha |
| 18' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Lille |
Ngal'ayel Mukau | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ngal'ayel Mukau |
| 24' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabián |
| 28' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fabián |
| 55' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 58' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 62' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 63' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Désiré Doué |
| 69' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Warren Zaïre-Emery | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 79' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gonçalo Ramos |
| 82' |
Lille |
Soriba Diaoune | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tiago Santos |
| 84' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 92' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 93' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Broholm |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuno Mendes DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.04 | 0.56 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Fabián MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.68 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Lucas Chevalier GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Marquinhos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Vitinha MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.52 |
| Désiré Doué FWR | 85 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 0.53 |
| Ousmane Dembélé FW | 77 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.45 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWL | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Senny Mayulu MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Illia Zabarnyi Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Bradley Barcola Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.14 | 0.69 |
| Gonçalo Ramos Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Lucas Hernández Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Perraud DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Aissa Mandi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Hákon Haraldsson FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Nabil Bentaleb MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Santos DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Ethan Mbappé FWR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Olivier Giroud FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Soriba Diaoune Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Marius Broholm Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Osame Sahraoui Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Thomas Meunier Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Felix Correia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |